oil surges, airlines sink, bonds defy safe-haven playbook

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on February 27, 2026 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Global markets opened the week on the back foot after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East and rattled investors.

Asian markets started the day lower across the board, with major markets in the region in negative territory. However, some losses were partially offset by gains in oil and gold mining stocks, particularly in Australia.

Here are all the notable moves in financial markets as the Middle East conflict plays out.

Energy and gold sparkle

Energy prices surged as investors priced in the risk of a broader Middle East conflict and lifted gold’s safe haven appeal.

U.S. crude oil rose more than 8%, or $5.55, to $72.57 per barrel by 6:41 p.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent jumped about 9%, or $6.54, to $79.41. Both benchmarks later pared gains to over 7%.

Oil markets are now focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

While the waterway has not been formally closed, tanker traffic has slowed to a near standstill amid surging war-risk insurance premiums and shipping suspensions, JPMorgan said in a note, forcing an “immediate repricing of geopolitical risk rather than a measured response to fundamentals.”

The bank also warned that if disruptions extend beyond three weeks, Gulf producers could exhaust storage capacity and be forced to shut in output, a scenario that could push Brent into the $100–$120 range.

In Asia, energy stocks like Woodside Energy and Santos in Australia jumped over 6%, as did Tokyo-listed Inpex and Japan Petroleum, which saw huge spikes of 6.08% and almost 12% respectively. 

Gold miners, mainly concentrated in Australia, also advanced over 4%, including Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining.

Airline stocks remain grounded

Defense stocks edge higher

Defense stocks posted modest gains. With South Korean markets closed for a public holiday, regional activity in the defense sector was muted.

Japan’s defense heavyweights Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and IHI rose over 3%. Singapore’s ST Engineering climbed 4%. 

Analysts from Franklin Templeton wrote Monday that they favored energy, shipping, insurance and defense in the near term, while remaining cautious on fuel-sensitive cyclicals such as airline stocks. 

Safe havens

Yields tick higher

The Japanese yen was not the only asset that moved against expectations. U.S. Treasuries and short-term Japanese government bonds also saw yields rise after the attacks, suggesting that traders were selling bonds instead of seeking them as safe havens.

U.S. Treasury 2-year yields climbed marginally, while the benchmark 10-year yield was flat. 30-year yields were also up 1.6 basis points.

In Asia, yields of 5-year Japanese government bonds climbed 4 basis points, respectively, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield was flat

“Bond yields could rise in the short term on concern about higher inflation,” said Benjamin Jones, global head of research at Invesco.

While he said that some government bond markets could benefit from safe-haven demand, inflation concerns would most likely dominate.

“On that basis, and given the energy independence of the U.S., we suspect U.S. Treasuries may be less impacted than European and Japanese government bonds.”

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