Why Lakers’ shooting records in Game 1 could be good news for Rockets

There aren’t too many surprises heading into the first week of the 2026 NBA postseason. The No. 7 and 8 teams in each conference advanced through the play-in tournament. In the first weekend of the actual playoffs, the home teams won seven of the eight Games 1 – and by an average of 17.7 points. Only one game was decided by single digits all weekend.

But that single-point game as the fourth seed was semi-surprising Los Angeles Lakers beat the fifth seed Houston Rockets. Even with Houston’s leading scorer, Kevin DurantMissing Game 1, the Lakers were in a weak position at home as they were missing their top Two in scorer luka doncic And Austin Reeves.

Among ESPN’s 16 NBA experts who chose a winner In the series, 15 chose Houston.

Still 27 points behind Luke Kennard And almost three-double that of a 41-year-old Lebron JamesThe Lakers swept the visiting Rockets. Houston never led by more than two points, while the Lakers stretched their lead to 16 before winning by nine.

That result can change the direction of the series. And it has raised big questions about a Rockets team that could face turmoil and roster turnover if it falls short of an injury-plagued Lakers team this summer.

But upon closer examination, the Lakers’ Game 1 victory may have been a fluke, their apparent dominance a mirage. The underlying statistics and recent playoff history provide warning signs for the winless Lakers — and reason for calm and patience for the Rockets — as the team prepares for a crucial Game 2 on Tuesday.

Let’s find out how the Lakers set some shooting records in Game 1 — and why, counter-intuitively, it could be good news for the Rockets.

shotmaking vs shot quality

Despite the absence of Doncic and Reeves, the Lakers’ offense was unstoppable on Saturday. His effective field goal percentage – which adjusts for the added value of 3-pointers – was 68.2%. This is a franchise record in the playoffs, which is saying something, considering that the Lakers have played in the most postseason games of any team.

But according to GeniusIQ tracking, his quantified shot probability — which calculates expected EFG% – based on factors like shot location and shooter ability – was only 51.5% in Game 1. The difference between those two numbers is known as “shotmaking” and the Lakers’ plus-16.7% mark is one of the highest on record.

For context, in the other Game 1s this postseason, no other team had the same shotmaking. half As good as the Lakers.

Game 1 Shotmaking

More broadly, the last time the Lakers had better shotmaking in any game — regular season or playoffs — was in 2018, which was a long time ago when their leading scorer in that competition Isaiah Thomas and julius randall. The last time the Rockets allowed such fierce shotmaking was in their memorable 159-158 shootout in 2019. washington wizards.

And specifically in the postseason, the Lakers’ Game 1 shotmaking ranks ninth out of 2,086 single-game performances in the playoffs since 2013–14, the beginning of GeniusIQ’s database. This was the best score for any Game 1 in that period.

Los Angeles benefited from an exceptional teamwide performance. Seven of the eight Lakers who attempted shots in Game 1 exceeded their designated shot chances, often by wide margins.

But that’s not necessarily a positive sign for the Lakers’ prospects moving forward.

a history lesson

At the same time the Lakers were netting, Houston was struggling without Durant. Not only did the Rockets fail to generate many good looks on offense, but they were less accurate than expected on their shots.

houston performed poorly Its expected effective field goal percentage was 5.0%, meaning the difference between the two teams’ shotmaking was 21.7%. This is the 13th largest margin in a playoff game since 2013–14 and the second largest in a Game 1.

But past examples of large disparities in shotmaking should be encouraging for Houston.

Record for largest shotmaking gap in Game 1 set in 2016 San Antonio SpursThey began the Western Conference Semifinals with a 32-point loss at Durant, using a 25.0% disparity. oklahoma city thunder. But the shotmaking leveled off over the remainder of the series and the Thunder upset the 67-win Spurs in six games.

There are several other examples from the last decade in which a team enjoyed an overwhelming shotmaking disparity in Game 1 but still lost the series. We can go year-by-year: In 2017, Houston beat San Antonio by 27 points in Game 1 due to a 17.4% shotmaking differential, but the Spurs advanced in six games; In 2018, boston celtics Had an 18.5% shotmaking advantage in Game 1 against Cleveland, winning by 25 points, but James’ Cavaliers won by seven; And Boston surpassed it in 2019 box in Game 1 and won by 22 points, but Milwaukee won the series in five.

And in 2020, the top-seeded Lakers were on the other end of the shotmaking difference in their playoff opener, as they surprisingly dropped Game 1 in the bubble against the eighth seed. portland trail blazers. But their luck held and James’ Lakers started their championship journey by winning the next four games.

Teams know not to rely on outside shotmaking to last multiple games. Reflecting on the 2019 Bucks-Celtics series a few years later, a member of the Milwaukee front office told me he was never worried, even after his team’s Game 1 loss, because he knew Boston’s single-game shotmaking advantage was not sustainable. Naturally, the Bucks then won four straight, averaging 16.3 points per game.

The Rockets may feel the same way after the Game 1 disappointment. The Lakers’ shot quality in Game 1 ranked in the 16th percentile among all teams in all games this season. The Rockets should be happy with that defensive effort – even if the Lakers’ actual eFG% is in the 97th percentile.

The Lakers’ historical overperformance means they scored 22 more points than they “should have” based on the quality of their shots. Without that boost, Houston probably would have won the game.

Anyway, even with those 22 “extra” points, the Lakers’ final margin of victory was in the single digits. This is unusual in such a make-or-miss league: for teams with at least a 20% shotmaking gap in the playoffs since 2013–14, the average margin of victory is 29.9 points. Those games almost always fail.

But the Lakers won Game 1 by only nine points. A win is a win, but history suggests they should have won by even more points given their shotmaking advantage.

Margin of victory for teams with larger shotmaking gaps

improbable, but not impossible

To be fair, there may be some signals in the shotmaking noise. For example, new York Knicks Last year a fluky shotmaking spree led to a win in Game 1 against the Celtics — and then a win again in Game 2 en route to clinching the series.

It’s not impossible that the Lakers will go that route against the Rockets. but it’s impossible.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers were 10-for-19 (53%) in Game 1, highlighted by Kennard’s 5-for-5 performance. But while Kennard is an incredible shooter – his 44% career mark from deep is the best among active players – he’s still likely to miss. Some? 3s as the series continues. He has attempted at least five 3-pointers in 241 games so far in his career, and Saturday’s attempt was only his second without a miss.

Similarly, according to GeniusIQ, the Lakers were an excellent midrange team this season, making 49% of their 2-pointers that were not in the restricted area. Only denver nuggets were more accurate. But in Game 1 against Houston, the Lakers made 65% of those 2-point shots from away from the basket, which is not sustainable over a large sample. The other 15 playoff teams were 50% or worse from those areas over the weekend.

Hot shooting in one playoff game is generally random, with no predictable carryover to the next. According to an analysis of data from GeniusIQ and ESPN Research, teams that perform at least 12% better than their expected eFG% in a playoff game have a plus-0.01% better average shotmaking figure in the next game of the series.

Houston, meanwhile, controlled the more exemplary statistical categories in Game 1: as the Rockets grabbed 21 offensive rebounds and had 13 steals against Los Angeles’ point-guard-less rotation, they attempted 93 shots versus the Lakers’ 66. (And it’s not like the Lakers compensated with extra free throws; they were 17-26 at the line, compared with 17-25 for Houston.)

Winning the possession battle so well was a formula for success for the Rockets during the regular season, and they look to continue that strategy against LA.

Losing Game 1 is certainly still a point of concern for Houston, especially due to the strange timing of this series due to injuries to all the stars. Every win for the Lakers means more time for Doncic and Reaves to return. And if Durant misses more time after his surprising Game 1 absence, the Rockets could be in trouble regardless of L.A.’s shooting; Their average shot quality was even worse than the Lakers’ in Game 1 (although the Rockets rebounded so many of their own misses that they still should have scored more).

Before the series, i predicted The Lakers would be surprisingly competitive against Houston despite their injuries, as the James-plus-shooters lineup was successful in the regular season. But I don’t expect those shooters to remain historical outliers for many more games, and Houston’s defense, which ranked fifth in efficiency in the regular season, remains solid.

It may not seem like it after the Game 1 mismatch, but the Rockets have a clear path forward. It starts with the Lakers’ shooting coming back down to earth on Tuesday night.