Strait of Hormuz reopening may take weeks

It will take weeks to clear the backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, industry executives and shipping experts have warned, as the critical waterway is set to reopen.

Oil prices initially dipped below $80 per barrel on news that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on a deal to end their war, as traders looked to the supply of oil, LNG and other goods being restored after nearly four months of war caused a maritime traffic jam of ships unable or unwilling to transit the Strait.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. It calls for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls by Iran for at least 60 days.

But restoring enough physical supply to the market to keep prices at a stable sub-$80 level could take weeks, and in some cases months, market watchers have told CNBC.

Operators, port authorities and energy companies across the Gulf remain in a holding pattern, with key logistical and security questions still unresolved.

“The most likely scenario is a phased restart, with some form of traffic-management mechanism involving Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.

“But the unresolved questions are significant: whether vessels need prior permission, whether Iran will impose service charges, whether foreign naval escorts are accepted, and whether mines or other residual risks require a clearance process.”

Even after a political agreement to reopen the Strait, industry participants say restarting traffic will be complex and staged.

“There is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after a disruption of this nature,” Sharpe said. “A cautious working assumption would be a gradual ramp-up rather than an immediate return to 100-plus daily transits.”

Before the war, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed weekly Strait of Hormuz cargo-vessel transits of roughly 650 to 770 vessels, equivalent to around 90 to 110 transits per day across both directions.

Economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology told CNBC its shipping data has yet to show a meaningful increase in oil export departures from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Iraq.

In Saudi Arabia’s Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export complex, vessels have been loaded and sent offshore to wait, according to Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube.

“Since June 8, tankers departing Dammam have spent significantly longer waiting at anchor before departure,” he told CNBC. “This suggests that a queue of vessels may have formed offshore rather than at port facilities.”

Most of the UAE’s successful crude flows through Hormuz involved “going dark,” in which ships turn off GPS systems to avoid detection. Kpler said dark shipping activity is likely to continue until Washington and Tehran reach a clear understanding on freedom of navigation.

Even if energy supply flows recover quickly, supply-chain disruption could continue. In a note published Monday, Kpler estimated 118 tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Kpler analysts estimate the backlog could take 10 to 15 days to clear, but warned that this would not amount to a full recovery. The initial boost, they said in the note, would be “purely mechanical,” delivering “an early spike in transits without lifting underlying throughput.”

If hundreds of vessels are waiting to transit the Strait, prioritization becomes critical. Industry experts expect oil tankers and LNG carriers to receive priority access because of their importance to global markets, potentially leaving container shipments and other cargo facing longer delays.

“Prioritization may not be purely commercial,” Sharpe said. “Authorities may also consider vessel location, direction of travel, flag, ownership, perceived political risk, cargo type, safety condition, and whether a vessel has already submitted the required transit information.”

“The biggest uncertainty is whether this will be handled transparently or through ad hoc operational decisions,” he added.

Traders and manufacturers in the region are already reporting higher raw-material prices and shipment delays, underscoring how quickly disruptions in Hormuz ripple through regional economies.

Before traffic can return to normal, naval forces need to certify safe transit corridors, which is expected to take at least several days. War-risk insurers must then reinstate coverage, without which vessels won’t move. Authorities in Oman, the UAE and Iran will also need to coordinate shipping lanes, convoy systems or transit windows, while ships and crews positioned for diversion or delay must be reactivated, refuelled and scheduled.

“Underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe transits, no interference, clarity on mine risk, and no renewed escalation,” Sharpe said. Pricing, he added, is likely to remain highly sensitive to vessel flag, ownership, Israeli or U.S. nexus, trading history and cargo.

“A durable reduction in additional premiums will depend on sustained historic transit volumes and confidence that the reopening is not reversible,” he said.

There is also a security component, with Iran and the U.S. needing to coordinate on mine clearance, another process that could slow things down.

“Until there is full certainty that there are no mines, the process will be slow and would take a few weeks since only a small passage is then available safely,” Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton, told CNBC over email. “Once clarity with mines is secured, then it could be less than a week. But I feel many will be cautious at first.”

Sharpe pointed to the Red Sea as a cautionary comparison, saying many operators remained reluctant to return even after de-escalatory signals that the Houthis had stopped firing on ships, without sustained proof of safety.

Kpler said most Middle Eastern production returns in weeks rather than months, but when that production can actually be exported is another question.

Much will depend on how quickly authorities, insurers and shipping companies can coordinate the reopening and restart the movement of goods. The initial 10- to 15-day clearing of the tanker backlog may create a visible spike in traffic, but a return to normal throughput could take longer if insurance premiums remain elevated, naval checks are slow or operators remain cautious.

Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following Trump’s announcement of a deal, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, from $90 previously, and to $75 for the 2027 average. But in the near term, prices could remain under pressure.

In a note published June 16, Goldman said “supply recovery might be stronger” and estimated that Gulf flows had already risen to 11 million barrels per day, with increases in both Hormuz flows and redirections.