Each week in MLB has its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Maybe we can help. Don’t be surprised if any of these ideas come true…!
philadelphia phillies DH’s kyle schwarber He made history during the 2023 season when he hit an excellent 47 home runs with a disappointing .197 batting average. Previously, no hitter had managed to reach 40 home runs without hitting at least .200. Famous Three-Truth-Consequence Hero joey gallo Certainly came close in 2021 (38 HRs, .199 in 2021), as did Adam Dunn in 2012 (41 HRs, .204). eugenio suarezDave Kingman, Mark Reynolds and even Mark McGwire are others who showed great power and sometimes even low batting averages.
Murakami certainly works statistically like Schwarber. It’s not such a bad thing, you know. Schwarber has made exciting progress in his game since 2023, crushing left-handed pitching and hitting .248 last season. He has drawn over 100 walks in three consecutive seasons, while averaging over 200 strikeouts over that span. That’s what Schwarber is, and it’s what earned him a top-25 selection in ESPN ADP. He was still a valuable player in 2023.
Murakami enters today’s game having hit home runs in five consecutive games, increasing his batting average from .167 to .256. Yes, it’s early and the batting average will fluctuate, but there’s no doubt that’s what Murakami is, as he came off as advertised and is proving the point. He is the AL version of Schwarber, with excellent exit velocity and hard-hit rates as well as immense power, and he is the leader in walks and strikeouts. It’s rare to see a hitter with a walk rate over 21% and a strikeout rate of 33%. Even Schwarber has never been that aggressive in those areas.
imaginary manager This should be liked in the points format, as Murakami, who fell out of the top 100 hitters in ESPN ADP, is still among the top 20 hitters in fantasy points. We can make the case that Murakami may be at the peak of his fantasy value, as his contact rate is a tad tough (worse than 2023 Schwarber), he’s not doing much damage against fastballs, and his home runs haven’t exactly come against Cy Young-caliber pitching. Maybe 50 home runs is a little bold, but Murakami certainly isn’t hitting many singles. He has 11 of them, just one more than his 10 home runs. In a year where Schwarber hit 47 home runs, he hit 48 singles. It could happen all over again, homers and low batting averages, perhaps even more extreme.
Don’t be surprised… If philadelphia phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo is once again a top 20 fantasy hurler
Luzardo will face his sixth fight of the season next Tuesday san francisco giantsWith a 6.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP – and, not surprisingly, he’s in a lower league than he was a week ago. Fantasy managers are nothing if not overreactive. The Phillies have been off to a brutal start for a myriad of reasons. But one of them is that they have historically been unlucky when it comes to BABIP, both on offense and defense. These figures should normalize as high-skilled players improve.
Last season, Luzardo finished with a 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts (fifth in MLB), while winning 15 games. He overcame a brutal two-start stretch in May/June when he allowed 20 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings milwaukee brewers And toronto blue jays. Remove those walks and Luzardo had a 3.03 ERA. He pitched well for most of the season. It doesn’t look like he’s pitching well today – because he’s not. However, his 6.91 ERA comes with a .395 BABIP, the third highest among qualified pitchers. Luzardo’s xERA is 3.61, his FIP is 3.25. Be patient, grasshopper.
Even after several outfield upgrades, the Phillies remain one of the worst defensive teams in the game (and have been for years), but the .353 team BABIP remains ridiculously high. This will normalize some. Houston is next at .325, but their pitching has really been terrible. The Phillies have a 3.52 xERA and 3.62 FIP to go with his 4.99 ERA. That combination cannot continue. LHP christopher sanchez (.413 BABIP!) has overcome this issue so far, but Luzardo and RHP Aaron Nola Not there.
Always keep an eye out for missing bats. Luzardo is missing so many bats. He’s been inefficient and a little wild, already with more wild pitches than 2025, but also has a 54% LOB rate – surprise! – The unluckiest in the game. Go get Luzardo (and Garrett Crochet, kyle bradish, nathan iovaldi And logan webbamong others as well) while you can.
Don’t be surprised… If los angeles dodgers Boasts two of the top 10 fantasy catchers
dodgers c Will Smith This seems to be a bit underappreciated in fantasy, as the three-time NL All-Star had another solid campaign in 2025, hitting a career-best .296 and putting up the power numbers we were expecting, though they were a bit off as a late-season IL stint reduced his overall volume. Still, while nine catchers in 2025 put up more fantasy points, none offer the consistency we’ve seen over six seasons. Smith went fifth among catchers At ESPN ADP, that’s fair. After fading out the top catchers and adding Smith to the middle rounds, I have him in many leagues.
Smith is producing well so far, but peers dalton rushing Entered Wednesday with more fantasy points. Both catchers are among the top 10 scorers at the position. Can Rushing stay there? Probably not, as the second-year player is unlikely to continue his current power pace, with seven home runs and 31 PA in nine games, a ridiculous .793 isolated power mark.
Then again, these are the Dodgers. They score a lot of runs and face the Rockies a lot. This may reduce volume concerns. Rushing can fill in at first base as well as the outfield, and we’ve already seen amazing shohei ohtani Take a day off from killing. There will probably be a few more days off as the league’s best teams prepare for October.
Fantasy managers have created rushing Most Added Catcher In imagination. while it should be detroit tigers starter dylan dinglerJoe plays a lot and boasts a solid .874 OPS (and legitimate .264 ISO), still not a bad investment. some are starting to fall kansas city royals starter salvador perez (hitting .180), Houston Astros starter yenner diaz (.197) and miami marlins athlete agustín ramirez (.212, with only one stolen base). I would call leaving any of them premature.
Still, what if Rushing hits 20 home runs over 250 PA? Could he make the final top 10 at catcher? It would be nice if he walked a few more times (one so far), but he has cut down on his K rate. Let’s be optimistic. Rushing’s fly ball rate is 65%, so it’s clear what his strategy is. Why not try for a home run in every at-bat, especially when the at-bats are short? Rushing may not have the numbers most starting catchers have, but this is the Dodgers, so anything seems possible.
