MIAMI — Indiana is on the verge of pulling off one of the most dramatic program U-turns in college football history.
Miami is on the verge of completing a generational revival, as it has struggled throughout most of its existence in the ACC since joining in 2004.
The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) have been proof of perfection all season long – they’re undefeated, play cleaner football than any other player in a power conference and have become the new face of success in this transitory era of college football. The program is looking for its first national title and has not finished in the top five since 1967.
The No. 10 Hurricanes bring an improved roster in terms of pure talent, as they emerged from the College Football Playoff bubble en route to home-field advantage for the program’s first national title since 2001. (The confluence of the venue and the novelty of the Hoosiers has caused the average ticket price on the secondary market to hover around $4,000.)
Who will win? We surveyed 25 opposing coaches, scouts and front office members who played against or studied teams. The results were overwhelming, with 21 out of 25 respondents choosing Indiana.
Why Hoosiers? And what’s Miami’s path to victory as a nearly one-touchdown underdog? NFL scouts and opposing coaches/assistants break down the major factors looming over the game.
Who benefits from talent?
Perhaps the greatest accolade made in Indiana by Insta-juggernaut Kurt Cignetti?
The same scouts who almost unanimously favor Indiana also acknowledge that Miami has a roster with more NFL talent.
How different is this advantage from a pure talent perspective? Using NFL draft picks as a barometer is not an ideal metric.
This transition is difficult, as there are players who have draft decisions who may decide to return to school. But Miami plans to have 12 draftable players, though they’ll be short on tailbacks if they like mark fletcherleft tackle marcel bell And Ahmed Moten Sr.. Return as the school signals the scouts. Indiana’s reality is closer to six players drafted this year.
(Ohio State had 14 players selected last year, and typically double-digit draft picks are the hallmark of a title contender.)
Scouts and coaches point to the trenches as both a strength and potential advantage for Miami, as four of Miami’s five offensive linemen project as draft picks. But the coach also points out that Indiana has competed with better talent all year, and he wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happens on Monday night.
carson beck Projects as a third- or fourth-round pick, but scouts wonder if this push to the title game, and a big game on Monday, could raise his stock. There are at least six NFL teams with a clear need at quarterback – Miami, the New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Vegas and Arizona – and Beck or Penn State’s Drew Allar Likely to be the third quarterback off the board.
indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza Is the projected No. 1 pick and is by far the best prospect on the field. Other Hoosiers who will hear their name called include star receiver eliza surrattcorner D’Angelo Pond and linebacker eden fisher. None of those three are likely top 50 picks.
An opposing coach said, “Miami has a better personnel.” “But because Miami is limited schematically, I think Mendoza will have a good day. They just need to protect him.”
What is Miami’s path to victory?
The joke among coaches is that if Miami is going to win, it will be the shortest title game in history. Miami would tend to scramble, and often in the College Football Playoff did not reach the line of scrimmage until about 15 seconds were left on the game clock.
Miami dominated time of possession against Ole Miss, controlling the ball for 41:22 of game clock. It featured four drives of more than 13 plays. While that time of possession came in part due to Ole Miss’s speed, the Canes will need to be even for the duration of this game.
A glimpse of what it should look like for the Hurricanes came on Oregon’s second drive against Indiana in the last round. after dante moore Throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, he calmly executed a 14-play, 75-yard drive and tied the game, taking about eight minutes from time. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson – an old Air Raid disciple – will need to be patient, run the ball and take what’s available.
The initial barometer will be Miami’s run game. Fletcher has 58 carries for 395 yards in the playoffs, an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He has eluded so many defenders with such consistency, it seems as if he is fishing for a Caterpillar NIL deal.
One veteran NFL scout said, “I think Miami will shorten the game and run the ball.” “I think it’s going to be a close game. Ultimately, the Indiana quarterback is going to make more throws on third down.”
right tackle Francis Mauigoa He is the anchor of Miami’s O-line, as he projects as a top draft pick on Miami’s offense. (freshman Malachi Tony The most talented player, but he’s not draft-eligible.)
At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Mauigoa could star as a guard in the NFL. But he is a road grader who will need to take advantage of an Indiana defensive line that has lost two key defensive line stars, kellen wyatt And stephen dalyhurt.
One scout says Mauigoa has the raw power and foundation to have a “high ceiling” in the NFL. He will need to dominate at the point of attack to help kill time and keep this game low-scoring.
Could Miami have a rematch of Ohio State?
Perhaps the biggest statistical discrepancy this postseason came in Miami’s win over Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes finished the game with zero penalties. They were the first team in CFP history not to take a penalty.
Indiana’s identity revolves around clean, mistake-free football. Aside from the Ohio State game, Miami’s penchant for penalties has troubled them this season. Miami committed a combined 21 penalties, causing them to lose 163 yards to SMU and Louisville.
The numbers show this to be one of the biggest statistical anomalies in the game. Indiana ranks No. 2 nationally in fewest penalty yards per game, with 26.9. Miami is 85th with 57.1 yards. According to ESPN Research, in four of Miami’s six one-score games this year, Miami had at least nine penalties.
There was none bigger than an unnecessary roughness call on a defensive lineman for the Hurricanes. Marquis Lightfoot This led to SMU’s game-tying drive that forced overtime in Miami’s loss in Dallas.
Indiana’s defense has been particularly efficient, as they have only been called for 13 penalties as a unit all year. Sena is number 1 with seven.
The area to watch on Monday night will be the offensive line.
Indiana hasn’t been perfect there, as it had seven pre-snap penalties in its win at Oregon. Six of them were false starts and the other was delay of game. Could similar issues arise if Miami fans were to factor in crowd noise? (The way the tickets have been distributed, the crowd looks like a 50-50 split.)
Miami’s offensive line has been a strength, but it has not been mistake free. It has been penalized 37 times this season, fourth-most in FBS, according to ESPN Research. The Hurricanes have had 24 false starts, the second most in FBS. Miami false started three times against Ole Miss.
Miami needs to play like it did against Ohio State to pull off the upset.
Indiana’s difference-maker on defense
One player that coaches and scouts have pointed to as a difference-maker is Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher. He watches former Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly and has enjoyed Kuechly’s ability to diagnose and predict pre-snap plays on ESPN’s “MNF Playbook with Next Gen Stats.”
“The way he sees the game is special,” Fisher told ESPN. “I’ve actually adapted some of the things he’s saying during my notes this offseason and how he breaks down film, how he sees the game.”
Fisher has earned a reputation in the Big Ten for assembling the opposition’s play through formations and movements. He says he’ll get close to the line of scrimmage to hear what the quarterback says, take a pre-snap under center, put it away and use it to make a play out later in the game.
He said he didn’t want to “give away my secrets” about what he’s looking for against Miami. But one of his favorite plays this season was when he called an upcoming tight end screen for Iowa based on motion.
he yelled to the linebacker rolijah hardywho faced iowa DJ Wonnahame For loss of 1 yard.
He said, “This is one of my favorite plays of the season, and I didn’t make it.” “[Hardy] Blown it up for TFL and you can see me pointing my head at it in the film. So that’s what gets me excited during a football game. “I can expose your deceptions and things like that.”
Fisher is a former high school quarterback. And his understanding of that side of the ball helps him hear the quarterback’s terminology — “different things like safeties, audibles and checks” — and use that information to predict plays later in the game.
Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines calls Fisher “a unique mind.”
“The idea of a quarterback and his running up to the quarterback’s line is really telling a real thing,” Haynes told ESPN. “Words matter. It starts with R and L (for right and left), East Coast, West Coast. Any team has these ideological things behind what they’re saying, and he can start to pick apart some of them.
“If you add to that the formational tendencies, he’ll have a pretty good idea of what you’re thinking here.”
Heisman winner vs. banged-up Miami secondary
Uncertainty looms large in the secondary for Miami this game, especially in the first half.
miami defensive back xavier lucas The first half of the game will be missed after the targeting call. Miami has another defensive back, damari brownJoe has not played since November 29 and is not certain to play, as Mario Cristobal called him “day-to-day.”
Both are key members of the secondary, as Lucas has 11 starts this season and Brown has five. He is a heavy part of Miami’s corner rotation.
Another important corner, oj frederickPlayed just seven snaps against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. He told ESPN that he is ready to play and is “completely healthy.” He returned for the playoffs against Texas A&M after not playing for nearly two months. He is suffering from a serious leg injury.
This will likely force Miami to rely on some less experienced defensive players, especially until Lucas returns in the second half.
true freshman corner Ja’Bori Antony Played 24 snaps against Ole Miss and 14 snaps on defense, his third-most in a game this year and his most in a game of consequence.
Just like Ole Miss attacked Antoine upon entering last week, expect Indiana to try to take advantage of the flow of Miami’s secondary early in the game.
New Chris EwaldWho has played in four games and 27 total snaps, and jadis richardA Vanderbilt transfer who has played in four games and taken 21 snaps this year is a player to watch. Miami could also move more experienced players to help at nickel or safety.
Don’t be surprised to see Mendoza and Indiana’s deep receiving corps find weaknesses in Miami’s backside. Opposing coaches have seen this as Miami’s biggest weakness all year.
An opposing coach said, “Both offenses will know what’s going to happen because the defenses are on the same tree.” “If you know what the other team is doing, who is more dangerous? I think when Indiana knows, they make it a high-scoring game. Miami is not built to score that way.”
ESPN research producers Marissa Dowling and Sopan Shah contributed to this story.
