According to a story about Cole’s win, when Elon Cole saw that Elon Musk fans were eagerly bidding for a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could effectively reduce federal spending in a year, he knew he had to bet. Wall Street Journal.
If Cole, an international tax accountant, knew anything in life it was this: Federal spending couldn’t be eliminated immediately, he told the WSJ. Even if DOGE canceled some federal contracts and fired employees (which it did), much of the remaining liability and skyrocketing federal debt would remain.
So, he gambled away his entire life savings – more than $342,000 – to bet that the US federal budget would not shrink. He told the WSJ that he gradually acquired a 3% share of the Kalshi prediction market, which grew to $12 million (making some hedging bets along the way).
When the government released 2025 year end expense report On February 20, Cole walked away with a handsome profit of $470,300 and $128,000, showing growth compared to 2024.
