Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Sept. 7: Sunday under-whelming for sportsbooks, bettors
Purdum and Greenberg: Aside from the chalk, there are few things the betting public gravitates to more than overs in the NFL. Week after week, game after game, sportsbooks report the bulk of the money wagered on totals is on the over.
But this week, the betting public bucked that trend and zeroed in on an under in a select game on Sunday. More bets were placed and more money wagered on under 38.5 in the Pittsburgh Steelers–New York Jets game than any other total on the board at multiple sportsbooks Sunday afternoon.
Despite having the lowest total of the week, it would turn out to be the only game of the afternoon that went over the total, and it did by the third quarter, with the Steelers coming from behind for a 36-34 win.
“That was the rare game where the over hitting wasn’t bad for the book,” a BetMGM spokesperson said. “The offensive explosion was a welcome outcome for the book,” Adrian Horton, senior director of North American sports trading for ESPN BET, said.
All other 11 games Sunday afternoon went under the total.
The record for most unders on a single day is 12. It has happened three times, according to ESPN Research (Dec. 7, 2008; Sept. 1, 1996; Sept. 15, 1991). The over/under in the night game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills closed at 50.5, the largest of Week 1.
More on NFL Week 1 betting
“Heading into Sunday Night Football, defenses dominated today and points were hard to come by — making anytime touchdown scorer bets and other offensive-oriented props hard to cash in for the public,” Ethan Useloff, sports trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told ESPN. “Missing touchdowns from Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, and Jahmyr Gibbs dismantled many parlays, as did quieter offensive nights from Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Bo Nix.”
In addition to the slew of unders, Week 1 featured eight games with point spreads of less than three, the most for an opening week in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research. Favorites were 11-3 straight-up and 7-7 against the spread, entering the Sunday night game.
“The 2025 season has picked up right where 2024 left off, with favorites continuing their strong run,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “Every favorite won on Sunday except for the Patriots, reinforcing the trend that has consistently benefited bettors.
“The key factor of the overall impact was the volume of unders, 11 games finished under the total, with the lowest total on the board Steelers at Jets being the lone over,” Mucklow added. “This helped shift the outcome from what could have been a tremendous start for customers to an above-average opening Sunday.”
John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said his shop got off to a solid start to Sunday, but the customers rallied in the afternoon games.
“The afternoon games didn’t go our way,” Murray said. “We can get a lot of it back tonight with a Buffalo win. If Baltimore wins … well, we have 17 more weeks to make up for it.”
NFL odds & ends
The 24 worst bets of the week: Circa Survivor, an NFL survivor contest with a $1,000 buy-in and run by a Las Vegas casino, attracted 18,656 entries this year, producing a record prize pool of more than $18.6 million. Twenty-four entries failed to submit their picks ahead of Week 1’s deadline and were eliminated. Interesting strategy.
Bad beat: Only two NFL games featuring 40-plus points in the first half had gone under the total in the last 20 seasons, according to ESPN Research. The Dallas-Philadelphia opener on Thursday made it three. The Cowboys and Eagles combined for 41 first-half points, but stayed under the 47.5 total after the teams combined for only one field goal in the second half of Philadelphia’s 24-20 win.
Week 2 Opening Lines (per ESPN BET)
Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills -7.5 (+105) at New York Jets
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (+100) at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (+105) at New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-120)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins -1.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -12.5 (-105)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-105)
Denver Broncos -2.5 (-120) at Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (+100) at Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans -1.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (+105) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sept. 4: Sportsbooks increasingly offering injury insurance for bettors
ESPN Staff: Sports bettors will have added relief from early injuries that impact their wagers this NFL season.
ESPN BET on Thursday announced that customers will receive refunds on NFL player prop bets placed before a game, if the player wagered upon is injured in the first half and is ruled out for the remainder of the contest. The bonus bet refunds will be equal to the amount of the initial stakes and may be redeemed to place wagers on the site. Bets on the “under” in such a situation would be graded as winners.
If a prop bet impacted by injury is included in a parlay, the individual leg or legs will be voided, and the parlay payout odds will be recalculated to reflect the remaining unaffected legs.
ESPN BET is the latest sportsbook to offer customers injury insurance. FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics are among the operators that have implemented injury clauses, as the popularity of player props has increased in recent years. For example, in May, Fanatics’ “Fair Play” policy was triggered when Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry injured his hamstring in the second quarter of a playoff game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Fanatics posted on social media that a $5,000 four-leg parlay that featured the over/under on Curry’s points ended up winning $224,773.09 due the sportsbook’s “Fair Play” policy.
*Penn Entertainment operates the ESPN BET sportsbook as part of a business partnership with ESPN.
Sept. 2: The complete betting impact of the Parsons trade
Doug Greenberg: One week before the start of the 2025 NFL regular season, the Dallas Cowboys shocked the football world by trading All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. The move could have been foreseen following months of a contract hold-in, but the transaction nonetheless altered the betting markets in the proceeding hours and days.
Immediately following news of the trade, Green Bay moved from +2000 to +1600 to win the Super Bowl this season; the line moved to +1400 shortly thereafter and sits at +1300 as of Tuesday afternoon, the sixth-best odds at ESPN BET. In the NFC North market, the Packers initially moved from a second-best +260 into a tie with the Detroit Lions at +185, and have since taken over as the outright favorite to win the division at +175.
Green Bay has, naturally, been a popular bet among the public in the aftermath of the trade. Since Thursday, the Packers have the most bets (22.1%) and handle (26.2%) to win the Super Bowl, as well as the largest share of handle (67.8%) to win the NFC North at ESPN BET.
That said, some bettors used the opportunity, and lengthening odds, to put in wagers on the Lions. Detroit has the most tickets and money to win the division, as well as the conference (+650), at BetMGM.
Bookmakers and bettors alike apparently see Parsons’ change of scenery as a prime chance for him to take home his first Defensive Player of the Year award. At ESPN BET, the 26-year-old surpassed Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (+650) as the favorite for DPOY, with Parsons’ odds shortening from +800 to +500. He has taken a leading 50.4% of handle at the sportsbook since the trade but trails Houston Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. in bets (28.6% to 18.1%).
The huge swap also had a more immediate effect on Week 1 lines, as the Packers moved from -2 to -2.5 for their huge Sunday afternoon showdown against the Lions at Lambeau Field.
As for the Cowboys, they lengthened from +6.5, at best, to +7.5, with the juice favoring the Philadelphia Eagles for Thursday night’s season opener. Dallas dropped from +5000 to +6000 to win this season’s Super Bowl and is now +260 to make the playoffs.
Aug. 30: Manning, Texas drop in futures markets after opening loss
Greenberg: Coming into Week 1’s mega showdown with the Ohio State Buckeyes, Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns had about as much hype backing them as could possibly be expected, leading sportsbooks to crown them as the preseason favorites for the Heisman Trophy and national championship, respectively. After a 14-7 road defeat to the reigning national champions, the Longhorns have lost some status in the futures markets.
Going into Saturday, Texas was the co-favorite with Ohio State for this season’s national championship, showing +550 odds at ESPN BET. Following the game, the Buckeyes maintained the same odds to be the outright favorite, but the Longhorns lengthened to +750, third on the odds board behind Penn State (+600).
Manning, meanwhile, following his poor 2025 debut, dropped from +650 to +1600 on the Heisman odds board, tied for the fifth-best odds. The Texas starting quarterback actually may have saved some face by throwing his first touchdown pass of the season with three-and-a-half minutes left, propelling him from his low odds point of +2000.
Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik and LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier became the new favorites for the Heisman as a result. Saturday night’s showdown between the two Tigers will likely be pivotal in deciding who will take sole possession of the Heisman race lead.
After the spread undulated up and down all week, Ohio State ultimately closed as a 1.5-point favorite over Texas, marking the first time a No. 1-ranked team in the preseason Top 25 poll has gone into its season opener as an underdog.
With the win, the Buckeyes have now covered seven straight games against ranked teams, all of which were in the top 10. The Longhorns fell to 2-6 against the spread as an underdog under head coach Steve Sarkisian, per ESPN Research.
OSU’s win was also likely good for sportsbooks, as heavy action on the Longhorns briefly made them the consensus favorite for the matchup. On Saturday morning, BetMGM reported that Texas’ spread was its most-bet side by tickets and handle for the day.
Aug. 13: Jackson, Burrow leading way in early NFL MVP betting
Greenberg: Less than a month before the NFL season, bettors and sportsbooks alike are eyeing up a pair of perennial AFC North superstars to win the league’s highest individual honor.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is the consensus odds leader to win NFL Most Valuable Player for the 2025 season, showing +450 odds at ESPN BET. Those odds are a bit shorter on the two-time MVP compared to the rest of the sportsbook marketplace because it recently took a $50,000 wager at +550, substantially increasing its liability in the market.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow, meanwhile, has been a darling in the MVP market all offseason and currently sits second on ESPN BET’s odds board at +600, with the book reporting him as its highest ticket share at 15.7%.
BetMGM says Burrow has the most bets and handle in the market, making him its largest liability, while DraftKings says it took an overwhelming 32% of bets and 38% of handle on him to win MVP in the span of a week; Jackson took the second-most wagers (8%) and money (9%) over that same time period.
Many bettors believe that Jackson could finally get over the hump this season and lead his team to a Super Bowl: The Ravens are ESPN BET’s third-most bet team to win the championship by wagers and handle, trailing only the Buffalo Bills and reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles. Baltimore and Philly are tied for favorite status at +650, with Buffalo coming in right behind at +700.
The Ravens are also -160 favorites to win their third straight AFC North title, with the Bengals close at +260. Cincinnati has a respectable 23.2% of bets in that market compared to Baltimore’s commanding 61.8%, and by total bets, the Ravens have the second-most tickets across all division winner markets, trailing only the Bills (-350) in the AFC East, according to ESPN BET.
