A man walks at a supermarket in Houston, Texas, on March 17, 2026. Ronaldo Schemidt | AFP | Getty Images Surging energy prices, rising import costs and mounting stagflation concerns are pushing markets to consider that the Federal Reserve’s next move could be a rate hike. Traders in the futures market pushed the probability of…
Jeff Greenberg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images The price of naphtha may not keep you up at night when you think about the inflation yet to hit the economy from the U.S.-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, but perhaps it should. As gas prices continue to rise alongside crude oil, costs of petroleum derivatives…
Pheelings Media | Istock | Getty Images The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. As of March 20, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,571, up from $3,221 roughly one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday. The…
Crowds of pedestrians and shoppers walk along Weinstrasse toward Marienplatz in Munich, Germany, on March 14, 2026. Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images European government bonds continued to sell off on Friday, building on a rout that has seen multiple countries’ borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs in recent weeks. Thursday saw the yield on…
While the impact of the war in Iran is sparing no major global economy, the U.K. is predicted to bear the greatest economic hit of any developed market nation, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In its latest economic report revising growth and inflation forecasts made in December, the OECD made steep…
Granger Wootz | Tetra Images | Getty Images The average tax refund is 10.8% higher so far this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. As of March 13, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,623, up from $3,271 about one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday….
Garrett Mauch spreads manure as fertilizer on fields at his family’s farm in Lamar, Colorado, on January 21, 2026. RJ Sangosti | The Denver Post Via Getty Images | Denver Post | Getty Images The Strait of Hormuz shutdown caused by the war in Iran is jacking up fertilizer prices, hitting farmers in their pocketbooks…
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, spends all day thinking about probabilities. Coming out of an elite math degree background and positions at some of the most successful hedge funds in the world, a mindset focused on thinking clearly about potential outcomes comes naturally to her. But the youngest self-made female billionaire ever still had…
Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in…
The war in Iran has caused oil prices to spike, prompting concerns about a resurgence of inflation. That has led Federal Reserve officials to raise the possibility that they may pause the Fed’s recent efforts to lower interest rates, or potentially even raise rates. But that is the Fed as it’s now known. The central…
