Managed future strategies are gaining renewed attention as investors look for new sources of returns from the market at a time when both stocks and bonds are under pressure as a result of the U.S.-Iran war and the risk of 1970s-style stagflation. These strategies, which are typically run by commodity trading advisors, use systematic models…
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) speaks at a news conference on his marathon overnight speech on the Senate floor at the U.S. Capitol Building on Oct. 22, 2025 in Washington, DC. Andrew Harnik | Getty Images A group of congressional Democrats on Thursday introduced legislation that would ban prediction market bets on elections, government actions, war…
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2026. Brendan McDermid | Reuters S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump. At around 6:50 a.m. in New…
All of the positive economic talk out of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting had a negative impact on investors, who have now taken expectations for even one interest rate cut this year off the table. In his post-meeting news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took an upbeat view of current conditions, even with what he…
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, spends all day thinking about probabilities. Coming out of an elite math degree background and positions at some of the most successful hedge funds in the world, a mindset focused on thinking clearly about potential outcomes comes naturally to her. But the youngest self-made female billionaire ever still had…
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reacts during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rate policy, in Washington, D.C., U.S., Jan. 28, 2026. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters As both energy prices and inflation fears pop, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are sliding. Traders…
A driver refuels a vehicle at a Wawa gas station in Media, Pennsylvania, US, on Monday, March 2, 2026. Matthew Hatcher | Bloomberg | Getty Images With oil spiking to $100 a barrel and the job market essentially paralyzed, the threat of stagflation again is looming over the U.S. economy and financial markets. High inflation…
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore,) speaks during a press conference addressing a new policy that demands recipients of foreign military aid to follow international humanitarian law at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., February 9, 2024. Nathan Howard | Reuters Payouts to unnamed bettors after the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the…
Buying contracts on prediction markets is just another word for “gambling,” says former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who is leading a coalition that wants state authorities, not a federal commodities agency, to regulate that growing industry. “The simple answer is that it’s gambling. It just is,” Mulvaney told CNBC’s Contessa Brewer,…
Prediction markets are facing renewed scrutiny from federal lawmakers after wagers about the fate of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the Saturday bombardment of Iran. “It’s insane this is legal,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., in a post to X, referring to another post highlighting people who had made money on…
