If Big Ten commissioner Tony Petti and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey can reach a specific agreement, there is strong support for a 16-team College Football Playoff format starting in 2026, multiple sources with knowledge of the discussions told ESPN in the days leading up to one of the most important meetings for the sport’s postseason.
However, there is still a standoff between the two powerbrokers, meaning that even if there is a majority in favor of change, the playoffs next season could remain at 12.
In November, the deadline for completing the draft and related structural decisions was extended from December 1 to January 23, 2026. CFP leaders — including all 10 FBS commissioners, Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, and the 11 presidents and chancellors who serve on the organization’s board of managers — will meet Jan. 18 in Miami, the day before the national championship game, for an annual review of the season.
They are expected to discuss two models: a 16-team field including the five conference champions and 11 at-large teams, and another format with 24 teams. Pettitte and Sankey have greater control over the playoff format through 2026 and beyond, an agreement that the other commissioners and Bevacqua signed during the last contract negotiations with ESPN in 2024. If Big Ten and SEC leaders cannot reach an agreement by the deadline, the playoffs will remain between 12 teams. The region will now be guaranteed a Power 4 conference champion spot along with the highest-ranked conference champion from the Group of 6, which now also includes the revamped Pac-12.
Power 4 commissioners, including the ACC’s Jim Phillips and the Big 12’s Brett Yormark, have had several separate discussions about it in the weeks and months leading up to the national title game. On Monday, he will hold a brief videoconference with select members of his staff in preparation for the big board meeting in Miami.
Here’s what college football legends are saying behind closed doors about the future of the draft, the selection committee, conference title games and bowl games.
future format
Sankey’s support is extremely important for the 16-team field as he carries weight in the room, but that won’t happen if Petti is not on board. Sources say the Big Ten wants to use this as leverage to eventually lock in a region with at least 24 teams, with or without the automatic qualifier. In exchange for support of the now 16-team tournament, sources said the Big Ten is looking for a commitment to move to 24 teams after two or three seasons. Although some in the room may be willing to consider a 24-team field in the midst of a new six-year deal, there is a strong reluctance to commit to it now – and that could lead to the impasse continuing. However, a 24-team playoff without automatic qualifiers could be tempting enough for Sankey to consider.
Some CFP leaders have become more open to the idea of a 24-team field – it’s not something people are strongly opposed to – but the feeling among many of them is that it is too important to make the leap at this point. According to sources, the Big Ten’s approach is that with 16 teams in three years will give conference commissioners time to eliminate their conference championship games and restructure the postseason to accommodate play-in games or whatever path to the playoffs they like.
There are some decision-makers, particularly in the SEC, who would support a field that includes the 16 best teams without a guarantee of a conference champion, but also realize that making the Group of 5 exit is a highly unlikely scenario.
“I don’t think it’s going to fly,” one source said.
There is no serious motion to require the conference champion to be ranked within a certain range to qualify for the playoff – a public talking point after No. 25 JMU entered the field. That qualifier has not received support from decision makers.
Sources said the 24-team model has been presented to the Power 4 commissioners, but not to the larger group. There are still significant questions about how and when this will work, in addition to knowing more specifically how the revenue will replace championship games. There are also some concerns about diluting the importance of the regular season and unbalancing postseason matchups even more. There is also a unified desire to preserve the Army-Navy window, while also realizing that games will need to be played around it.
Under the new governance structure, any future changes to the format are now in the hands of the Commissioners and Bevacqua. They no longer need the CFP’s Board of Managers – which is made up of 11 presidents and vice-chancellors – to give final approval.
One of the issues at the center of this year’s Selection Day was the ACC’s tiebreakers, which eliminated Miami from the conference championship game while pitting Virginia and five-loss Duke against each other. Because the five-loss Blue Devils won the league, the ACC champion was excluded from the CFP, while a last-minute flip was needed to include its best team, Miami. Multiple sources have indicated that all Power 4 conferences will work toward a similar tiebreaker this offseason that would ultimately resort to the CFP rankings if needed – something that the Mountain West Conference did last season. Those discussions are expected to intensify at the respective winter meetings.
selection committee
Part of the Big Ten’s issue with the CFP system is the perception that the selection committee has an impossible job that will become more difficult this year as the SEC and ACC change to nine-game conference schedules. With teams with two and three losses expected to increase, the committee will have the difficult task of evaluating those records against the opponents they have played. The committee’s increased strength of schedule metric and the new record strength metric did not provide any obvious differences that fans would have seen in each weekly ranking last season.
No major changes are expected to the committee’s protocols, but some sources — inside and outside the room — have questioned whether current athletic directors should remain part of the group, given how much pressure schools and conferences are under to make the playoffs. Is it possible for those individuals to act independently and not as representatives of their respective conferences? Some within the industry have suggested that the chair of the committee be independent – not a sitting athletic director, as has been the norm throughout the duration of the CFP. There is no possibility for athletic directors to step down from the committee, and the position still has support from CFP leaders, who believe they provide credibility to the system. Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yuracheck is expected to serve another season as chairman of the committee, but the commissioners and Bevacqua must still approve that recommendation.
The reality is that committee members have been very difficult to find since the inaugural season of the playoffs.
bowls
The indecision over the future format of the CFP is gradually having an impact on the bowl system. The larger the playoff field, the fewer name-brand bowl-eligible teams available for non-CFP bowls. There will be more conversation this offseason about how many bowls there should be.
Currently, there are 41 FBS bowl games, including six CFP bowls. There are 70 teams left playing in a non-CFP bowl this season, and only 3 of them were below the .500 bowl-eligibility mark at 5–7.
Bowl season executive director Nick Carparelli said he is still confident the playoff field will not impact the health of non-CFP bowls. Carparelli said that over the past five seasons, an average of 81 teams played in FBS bowls with a 6-6 or better record.
Carparelli said, “I think a lot of people are waiting to hear the final decision on the CFP’s next format, and as a result, much of college football is in a bit of a holding pattern.” “Bowl organizations are continuing to have discussions with their conference partners about potential partnerships for the future, but nothing has been decided until we know what the CFP is going to look like.
“I think most people thought the bowl system would be reduced two years ago when we went from four teams to 12 teams,” Carparelli said, “but over that two-year period, the total non-CFP television viewership has grown 25%, so I think that proves there will always be an appetite for college football in the month of December. And regardless of the CFP format, the rest of the bowl system provides great college football between each round of the playoffs. “Going to provide programming to keep college football fans excited.”
Although many fans, coaches and players have enjoyed the atmosphere and advantages of first-round home games in the 12-team CFP, several commissioners have stated publicly and privately that it is important to continue the partnership with the six major bowls – Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar and Orange. However, if the playoffs expand beyond 12 teams, more games are expected to be played on campus in addition to major bowls.
