Can Gold Cup final be USMNT’s first good win under Pochettino?

Think a little a month ago. Before Chatgpt screenshotFirst QuarrelsomeBefore saying that this is my face ExcitementAmerican manager Mauricio Pocheto before Told us“I am not an effigy.” First Christian Played Golf At the wrong time. Before Shameful loss To Switzerland.

Now that you have captured that headspace, imagine if I told you that American men’s national team Will be undefeated through the first five matches Golden bowlYou will get a pair of breakout performance from USMNT Diego Luna And Malik TilmanAnd the date will be found in the final Mexico,

You will be very happy with this, will you not do?

And big, many USMNT fans and viewers Are Very happy. The team is not lost yet. It has overcome some adverseness. Luna has become a cult hero. And Tilman is about to join Bayer leverkusen For the transfer fee of about $ 40 million. Given that most of the players of the first choice of the team are not on the roster, it has been a successful summer.

One thing is missing – from this summer and pochethino era, on a large scale: the team has not played a good game yet.

These have been 15 matches since taking over Pochtino, and we still have not seen the USMNT a systematic, decent, competitive opposition to a systematic, repeated manner. The US has taken advantage of mistakes against bad teams, struggled to score against defensive aspects, fell against talented opponents and hanged against national teams that could not be eligible for the next World Cup.

Sunday’s final – Against mexicoWhat could be a biased Mexico crowd at Houston’s NRG Stadium, in front of it, will be the most difficult game of the running tenure of Pchethino. This will be the last time when the US plays a competitive match before the World Cup. This will also be the last chance of Pochetino to show that their team may be in the right direction.

How does Pochtino stack with its USMNT predecessors?

Since 2013, USMNT has played 60 tournaments in the Rashtra League and Gold Cup at ConcacAF. This is not an ideal base line, looking at the quite different rival quality game for sports, but it is a good way to present the average expectation for the Gold Cup or Nations League match.

In these games, we do data per data, USMNT average:

• 2.4 Non-Penalty Gols scored
0.6 goals against •
• 14.7 shots
• Against 9.6 shots
• 61.6% of all final-third possession
• 28.9 touches the penalty area
• 14.6 touch is allowed in the fine sector

None of this should be surprising. The US has basically doubled its opponent in most of the top-tier attacker figures: the target, the final-third occupation and the punishment-field touch. It is expected from a country that has been one of the two major powers of the region in the last 30 years.

Here, however, nine games in two competitions have similar numbers for USMNT:

• 2.0 non-penalty goals
0.9 goals against •
• 12.6 shots
• Against 8.0 shots
• 63.7% of all final-third possession
• 24.7 touches the penalty area
• 15.1 touch is allowed in the penalty sector

This, broadly, paints Strategic photo of USMNT under PochetinoSo far. The team is controlling more fields than USMNT in the past, but it is not leading to better results or outputs. The US is producing low targets, shots and penalty-area touch with the last-third dominance, but it is also allowing more punishment and goals of more punishment, despite the final-third dominance.

Of course, some of them can be randomism. Perhaps this new level of regional control is creating a more sound process – but the boom is not just going into the way of the USMNT. This is possible in a nine match sample. But this did not happen.

Near the 60-match duration of sports, USMNT has set expected targets per game 2.0 non-Penalty per game and allowed 0.7. Under Pochetino, the defense has been correct at that 0.7 average, but aggressive production is immersed up to 1.5 xg per game.

This happened in each of the last two matches of USMNT. against Costa RicaThe yogies below include punishment for each team, but even with the count of a loped shot in favor of the USMNT, the overall chance quality was almost almost. The game went into a penalty kick shootout, and is worth it.

Orange dots are targets, purple dots are shots, and large dots mean high XG per attempt.

Then, after gaining an initial lead of 2–0 in the semi-finals, the US hung. 20 shots accepting Argentina Or Spain One thing, but it was against Guatemala,

Transfermark The transfer value of Guatemala’s Gold Cup squad estimates what the Bayer will pay to achieve Liverkusen Tilman. Keep another way, Average player The USMNT squad has an estimated transfer price of about € 7 million in this summer. Combined together, Guatemala Complete squad It comes up to € 8.3 million.

Gold Cup final against Mexico means everything, nothing else

I am not sure that you need advanced data to understand it. In two matches against Costa Rica and Guatemala, USMNT scored four goals and accepted three. Costa Rica is ranked 46th World Football Aloe Rating, while Guatemala ranks 75th. Even with a US B-Team, you will expect some more comfortable results.

Meanwhile, Mexico is 22nd. So, Sunday’s match presents a first and last for Pochathino: the last chance to win something before the World Cup, but the first time he has given the team coaching in a game. No Hope to win.

What is expected of the roster of the USMNT and the Mexican Pro-Maxican crowd in Texas, El tri Very minor favorite. According to obstacles inherent from ESPN Bet, Mexico has a 52% chance of lifting the trophy.

Funny, it sounds like everything and nothing hinges on Sunday’s game.

Nothing matters because this team is not Pocheto which will take to the World Cup. In addition, a lot can do and will now change between and next summer – and most of it will be in nothing to do With the decisions made by someone in the American football shirt, either.

But there are very few games in international football that we have no option but to give external weight to each game. Each gradual match is another incomplete information about the quality of the team.

In this way a rating system will also see it. According to the ELO rating, the USMNT had a rating of 1738 and the 37th ranking when Pchethino took over. Currently, it has a rating of 1727 and a ranking of 40. Teams win and play a game every time, depending on the result, the quality of the opponent and the level of competition.

Therefore, if the USMNT wins on Sunday, it will progress under its new coach. If the team loses, it will take one step back. And if the match ends in the draw (and goes into a penalty), then America will remain the place where it is now: not much better or worse than ever.