Bill Gates warns of economic upheaval from AI

There is “no plan” for the “social, political, and economic upheaval” AI is about to cause, Bill Gates has warned.

The Microsoft co-founder said that AI could become either the “greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice,” but that he saw no “evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately.”

In an essay published Wednesday, Gates said AI could displace workers across the economy, squeeze entry-level hiring and force policymakers to rethink employment, education and the social safety net.

The essay is a shift from past statements from Gates, who works with Microsoft and other AI companies through the Gates Foundation. He told CNBC in October that AI was “the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime,” adding: “It is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate.”

In his essay, Gates said that new national bodies and international institutions will ultimately be required to help coordinate and safeguard against evolving AI risks globally.

“The challenge is monumental. Even under the best circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history,” Gates said.

In the essay, the billionaire philanthropist argued that, unlike previous technological shifts, AI could replace human cognitive work across industries faster than displaced workers can move into newly created roles.

“We need time to prepare for the period of social, political, and economic upheaval we are about to enter,” he wrote.

“Unfortunately, right now we are not preparing for it. I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era.”

Gates said white-collar employment was already being affected, with sales, customer support, software engineering and paralegal work potentially among the first areas hit. AI could eventually take on tasks including assessing loans, analyzing data and triaging patients, he added.

Blue-collar workers will also face pressure as increasingly capable robots become cheaper, he said, while younger people risk entering a labor market with fewer openings.

“The people who need the most time are the ones who have the least — the accounting worker who’s replaced by a bot or the $20-an-hour worker who loses their job to a $10-an-hour robot,” he added.

Competition could accelerate adoption as companies use AI and robotics to cut costs and prices, forcing rivals to follow. “Robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle,” he added, warning that retraining and finding new work would cause significant turmoil.

Gates — who acknowledged in the essay that he still has financial ties to the tech industry — also said the technology can “accelerate innovation” in the world’s “toughest technical challenges”: providing reliable clean energy, combating climate change, growing enough food, and eradicating diseases.

He said managing the transition requires new national bodies able to coordinate policy across employment, taxation, energy, elections, public health, the financial system and national security.

“But even a country that gets its own house in order will still be exposed to risks that cross borders. This is why an international organization will need to be built in parallel,” he said.

These agencies could be modelled on certain existing systems, such as the global inspections regime for nuclear weapons, regulations for international aviation, and agreements that protect the ozone layer.  

“A new global organization for AI will need elements of all three and more,” he added.