NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s

all four NBA Conference Semifinals Coming off a tumultuous first round that included three Game 7s, two major upsets and some key injuries.

With eight teams left to vie for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it’s a perfect opportunity to take stock of the field as it currently stands and rank those contenders based on their likelihood of coming away with the hardware when the postseason is all said and done.

Here’s our take on the pros and cons of each of the eight teams as the second round now has a game to play across the board.

(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy of ESPN Analytics.)

First round: Beat PHX 4-0
conf. cm: Lead LAL, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 48.8%

Case for:

How about championship experience, depth in Days, a ferocious defense, a potential two-time MVP and home-court advantage throughout the remainder of the playoffs? OKC is the team in the best position since Golden State Warriors To win the title again in 2017–18. Thunder can play big Chet Holmgren And Isaiah Hartenstein Front. They can play small, with a dangerous fleet of guards wreaking havoc in both half-court defense and transition when they force turnovers. And they have a coach in Mark Daigneault who isn’t afraid to experiment with lineups during playoff series.

Case against:

That 7 foot 4 inch game-plan spoiler Victor Vembanyama And their partners are down Interstate 35. San Antonio has won four of five meetings with OKC this season, showcasing length and athleticism that could give the Thunder problems. But if OKC can avoid the San Antonio matchup — Heavyweight West Finals chances took a small blow when the Spurs dropped Game 1 against the Timberwolves on Monday — barring devastating injury luck shouldn’t stand in the way of a Thunder repeat.

First round: defeated POR 4-1
conf. cm: Trail Min, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 13.5%

Case for:

Who says young Spurs have to fall flat before achieving success? Vembanyama did just that and returned after missing the game, returning with the same ferocious strength he had shown all season. The Trail Blazers tried to get physical on Wembanyama in the first round, but he shook it off and averaged four blocks despite missing most of Game 2 and all of Game 3 due to an injury. and together Stephen Castle As an emerging third scorer boasting 43.8% shooting from 3, why can’t the Spurs miss a few steps? Yes, shorthanded Minnesota surprised many by stealing Game 1 on Monday, but it will take more time to unseat San Antonio from this spot.

Case against:

The winners are the winners until someone beats them, and if the Thunder Guard jalen williams Healthy, throw this season’s previous Spurs-Thunder showdown out the window. But can the San Antonio shootings stop? Minnesota’s defense stifled denver nuggets shot to the tune of 30% from the 3-point line in the first period, and the Timberwolves held the Spurs to just 28% (10 for 36) from 3 on Monday with Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox Combination for 0-12 night. Oklahoma City allowed only 34% shooting in the first period phoenix sun. The Spurs don’t rely much on the 3-point shot, but it has become an equalizer that has helped their resurgence throughout the season.

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Chris Paul to McAfee: The Knicks go as Brunson, Kat

Chris Paul joins Pat McAfee and explains why Jalen Brunson’s play isn’t surprising him.

First round: Beat ATL 4-2
conf. cm: Lead PHI, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 19.3%

Case for:

The Knicks played as cohesively as they have all season in their final three wins atlanta hawks. And while the way they played defense in Game 6 isn’t sustainable, the series opener against Philadelphia showed it can be sustained.

aggressively, if OG Anunoby Can continue this terrific scoring – he’s 23 for 30 from the field in his last three games – and carl-anthony town Once truly unlocked, New York will be in the driver’s seat among the final four teams in the East.

Case against:

Matchup. Can Philadelphia, who adjusted well against Boston after the Game 1 loss, become the Knicks’ kryptonite? joel embiid And tyreese maxi Could catch fire and move the defense of New York. If nothing else, the Knicks were built to beat Boston in these playoffs. That major hurdle was cleared, but Philadelphia remains something of a wild card, especially with the dynamic maxi-VJ Edgecombe Backcourt New York won’t be able to hide Jalen Brunson On defense throughout the series or in a potential East Finals showdown with Detroit.

First round: beat ORL 4-3
conf. cm: Lead CLE, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 17.2%

Case for:

Including the Pistons, six of the top eight teams in defensive rating are in the conference semifinals, and only Oklahoma City is better than Detroit. Cade Cunningham His All-NBA Game performance in the Orlando series shows he can process, adjust and adapt to the moment quickly. auser thompson Also developing into a generational defender during these playoffs. What if Orlando will be Detroit’s toughest physical matchup? And if this version tobias harris – The veteran forward averaged 21.6 points in the first round, more than eight better than the regular season – Detroit could dominate the next six weeks, around May and June.

Case against:

The Pistons got here, but the First Four game against Orlando is hard to forget. With a sharpshooter, shooting less than 30% from 3 duncan robinson Being unable to create space for quality looks and being too focused on defence, was not a pretty sight. Keeping Cunningham as a proven scorer could hold him back, especially if the center Jalen DurenHis offense doesn’t return after averaging just 10.6 points in the first round. Meanwhile, Cunningham is still recovering from a punctured lung. Detroit has a lot to do to reach the Finals. The slightest mistake can lead to destruction.

First round: beat den 4-2
conf. cm: Lead SA, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 0.4%

Case for:

Minnesota’s remarkable win over Denver in Game 6 proves that the Timberwolves are incredibly resilient. Rudy Gobert The three-time MVP is slowing down, having perhaps the best series of his Hall of Fame career Nikola Jokic. If there’s anyone who can give Wembanyama a run for his money in the paint, it’s four-time Defensive Player of the Year Gobert. Anthony EdwardsMeanwhile, he played clutch minutes after a surprisingly quick comeback from a hyperextended knee in the final stanza in Game 1. The Wolves also have experience having made consecutive conference finals appearances over the past two years. Their second round opponent, San Antonio, is certainly feeling that loss after losing the first game at home.

Case against:

Despite stealing Game 1, the Wolves would have been ranked higher had they suffered fewer injuries. Edwards returned in Game 1, but had an unspectacular first period. Ayo Dosunmu Sidelined with a calf injury, and donte divincenzo Is out for the postseason with a right Achilles injury. Although Minnesota won Game 1 after some incredible consecutive play, sustaining it throughout the series is a tall order against Wembanyama and the deep, athletic Spurs guard rotation.

First round: beat BOS 4-3
conf. cm: Trail NYK, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 0.1%

Case for:

The 76ers are the ultimate different team. When fully healthy and functional — barring Monday’s loss to New York in Game 1 — Philly’s ceiling is incredibly high. The pick-and-roll combination of Maxi and Embiid is a handful for any team to stop, paul george Feeling like he’s returned to his All-Star form, Edgecombe continues to prove he’s not afraid of big moments, and kelly oubre jr. And quentin grimes Have combined to give Philadelphia 48 quality minutes per game on the wing. There aren’t many teams with that level of on-paper talent and versatility. In addition to OKC’s Daigneault, the 76ers also have Nick Nurse, the only championship-winning coach.

case against: :

Where to start? The most obvious is the poor health of Philadelphia’s stars. Can Embiid and George stay healthy for the next six weeks? History shows that this is a risky proposition. That’s especially true for Embiid, who is less than a month removed from an emergency appendectomy, the latest health issue to impact the postseason run for the former MVP.

and has often languished in major situations during the team’s last few seasons. Game 7 in Boston almost became the latest example, when an 18-point lead nearly evaporated at the end of the third quarter.

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Cavs-Pistons Game 1 turnover differential

Zach Cram discusses how important the Cavaliers’ turnovers were in the Pistons’ 111-101 win in Game 1.

First round: defeated TOR 4-3
conf. cm: TRAIL DET, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 0.4%

Case for:

Cleveland’s roster was built for playoff success. In james harden And Donovan MitchellThe Cavs have an explosive backcourt capable of making big plays. In evan mobley And jarrett allenThe Cavs have two versatile big men who can handle a variety of defensive duties and provide enough offense to complement the guards. And Sam Merrill, max strus And dean wade Wade can space the court, serving as a strong defender against the opponent’s bigger wings.

Case against:

As Cavs snap seven-game winning streak against short-handed Toronto Raptors — brandon ingram sat out the last two-plus games and Emmanuel Quickly Did not play at all – As the series progressed, Harden and Mitchell struggled significantly. Now, Detroit offers a level of physicality that Cleveland has struggled with. The Cavs are on the verge of a conference championship, but it’s hard to believe they can reach it right now. The situation continued after a poor performance in Game 1, in which Cleveland had a chance to steal the game after trailing all game, but faltered in the final minutes after tying the score with five minutes remaining.

First round: Defeated HOU 4-2
conf. cm: Trail OKC, 1-0
2026 NBA title chances: 0.3%

Case for:

Lebron James He has defied every expectation at this stage of his career, so why couldn’t he conquer this mountain? Or at least keep the Lakers straight long enough Austin Reeves To fully recover and for luka doncic Is he closer to returning from his hamstring injury? They were a tougher team against Houston Rockets And executed in the clutch late in games to continue his season-long efficiency. If first round 3-point shooting marcus smart, Luke Kennard And Rui Hachimura (all 40% or better), it gives the Lakers’ drivers a lot of room. This would give any LeBron-led playoff team some hope.

Case against:

They’re playing “Monstars” – not the rebooted version. The Thunder are rested, and presumably, healthy with the improvement of Jalen Williams. Asking James to repeat his first-round performance against a Thunder team that rarely beats itself seems a bit impossible. The Thunder have dominated the matchup against the Lakers, and even if a miracle happens, the Spurs are waiting. Common sense says the LA race ends here.