Stick or sack? Slot’s Liverpool future dominates UCL talking points

The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals kicked off this week, and with it came plenty of drama to unpack, so let’s review.

On Tuesday, Arsenal muddled their way to a 1-0 win at Sporting CP thanks to an injury-time goal, while Real Madrid and Bayern Munich traded punches and shots for 90 minutes, albeit with the Bavarian side holding a 2-1 first-leg lead to take back with them to the Allianz Arena.

On Wednesday night, Barcelona succumbed to Diego Simeone’s trap and lost 2-0 at home, with Pedri coming off injured (or was it a precaution?) and defender Pau Cubarsí receiving a red card late in the first half. Meanwhile in France, Paris Saint-Germain had umpteen chances to decimate a wobbly Liverpool team low on confidence and form, but had to settle for a 2-0 first-leg lead ahead of the return at Anfield next week.

So, what to make of it all? ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Julien Laurens and Sam Tighe are here to break down the action as it happened and look ahead to next week’s second legs.

– Kirkland: Real Madrid believe they can beat Bayern. Are they right?
– Ogden: Wasteful PSG leave door open for Liverpool in UCL
– VAR Review: Was Cubarsi’s red card deserved?

Q1. Does PSG’s 2-0 win over Liverpool say more about the Parisians or Arne Slot? The Reds tried a drastic formation change and created nothing, with the entire thing seeming like it was just a matter of time until Luis Enrique’s side blew the doors off the visitors’ desperate rearguard. It might well be the worst Liverpool performance under Slot, too …

Tighe: Realistically, Liverpool felt doomed in this match before a ball was kicked. A team this fragile, this flawed and this leaky late on in games cannot be expected to go to the Parc des Princes and pull out a result. Slot seemed acutely aware that the usual plan would not work, so he changed it up and fielded three center backs in a 5-2-1-2-esque shape.

It seemed like the intention was to prevent PSG completely taking over by using wide combinations while utilising Dominik Szoboszlai‘s energy in support of the attack, but the consequence of the shape change was that Vitinha and Co. had all the time in the world to run the game from central positions, where Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister seriously toiled. I’m not sure we learned anything about the Reds (except that Alexander Isak is fit again), but we did have it confirmed that PSG, the reigning European champions, are humming at just the right time of the season.

Marcotti: We can keep blaming Slot for everything and sure, trying to surprise PSG with a formation you’ve never played or trained before seems silly with the benefit of hindsight. But what’s the alternative? Doing nothing, trying to play them straight up and getting hammered? They did that at Manchester City in the FA Cup just a few days ago.

The main issue I have with Slot is waiting until 12 minutes from time and then making a quadruple substitution (and none of the subs being Mohamed Salah). And then being lucky the final score was 2-0, rather than being four or five down. Do we want to blame him for the fact that Liverpool’s first shot on goal of any kind came four minutes into the second half? OK, fine. Go ahead that’s all his fault too and not down to the recruitment. The fact of the matter is that Liverpool are still in this tie at 2-0 down, so he can hang his hat on that. He may not be a genius but making this all about him and his shortcomings isn’t fair.

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Nicol: PSG could’ve put six past Liverpool

Steve Nicol says Liverpool will be thankful to be just two goals down heading into the second leg against PSG at Anfield.

Ogden: Liverpool are absolutely still in this tie and Luis Enrique should be furious about that. He seemed quite relaxed about it during his postmatch news conference, but PSG should have won by five or six and their failure to do so might come back to haunt them at Anfield. PSG were so dominant that they started with the tricks and the flicks and that’s why Luis Enrique should be angry with his players. Just get the job done and then play around.

Maybe the PSG boss’ sanguine reaction was because he knows that this Liverpool side are beginning to stink the place out and a group of players who perform so poorly are unlikely to flick a switch and turn it on so much that they salvage the tie at Anfield. Slot tried a new formation because he has no legs in midfield and his forwards don’t work hard enough. It didn’t work in Paris and Liverpool are unlikely to turn it around next week, but they still have a chance and that’s pretty much all Slot was hoping for.

Laurens: PSG did what they have been doing at their best for over a year now. So, we have to look at Slot and the mess that he made again on Wednesday. His back five was total nonsense, he encouraged his team to just defend (only three shots, none on target and 0.18xG) and the players — who have been poor all season long (and that’s not just on Slot) — looked lost.

Speaking of lost, feels to me that Slot has lost the team. Look at the expressions of Florian Wirtz and Szoboszlai when they were subbed off. Look at Salah’s face on the bench once he realised he was not coming on. The issues at the club are more than just the manager, but he is not helping himself or his team either. He has been struggling all season to find the right formula to fix the Reds’ issues, and he has failed to find a solution so far. Liverpool should have lost 5-0 in Paris and were lucky to escape with a lesser scoreline. That’s not Liverpool we know.

Q2. Real Madrid and Bayern offered up an entertaining first leg that saw 40 combined shots and 4.96 xG between the two sides. In the end, was it the goalkeeping that made the difference? Manuel Neuer really turned back the clock with a stunning performance to deny Kylian Mbappé time and time again, while Andriy Lunin arguably could have done better. Or was it something else?

Laurens: We have known since the start of the season that Real Madrid had to avoid two specific players getting seriously injured because of how losing either or both could derail their season. The first one was Mbappé, and the second one was Thibaut Courtois. Without the Frenchman, the Merengues did manage to stay on track, but not having the Belgian for a game of this magnitude was a massive blow, and Madrid paid for it.

Lunin is a good backup keeper, but he’s not good enough to win you games (or prevent you from losing) like Neuer can be — and like he was on Tuesday night at the Bernabéu. Courtois would likely not have conceded Harry Kane‘s goal, and it’s fair to say he certainly would have made the hosts’ defence stronger. For Neuer, at 40, it’s another proof that he is one of the greatest keepers of all time. SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga doesn’t interest him so much anymore. Give him Real Madrid under the lights in the Champions League and he is your guy!

Marcotti: The goalkeeping was a big part of the story, sure. Juls is right: there’s no way Courtois concedes that goal to Kane, while two of the three saves Neuer made off Mbappé were truly special. Even if you’re not a Neuer fan, you have to appreciate that given his injuries, given he’s now 40 and given what happened last time he played at the Bernabéu, when Joselu scored twice.

That said, I think an equally bigger part of the story is Bayern’s failure to hang on to a two-goal lead. They absolutely battered Real Madrid in the first half and, I think, should have been more than just a goal up. Then, at 2-0, with the fans freaking out and Madrid boss Alvaro Arbeloa making tweaks, you have to see the game out. There’s a huge difference in coming back from two goals down on the road compared to one goal. You can’t give up that many chances. The only mitigating factor, I guess, is the Bernabéu and the old trope by which time seems to magically turn more slowly when Real Madrid need to come from behind. But this is Bayern, surely “stage fright” shouldn’t be a thing?

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Will Bayern Munich pay for missed chances against Real Madrid?

Frank Leboeuf believes Bayern Munich’s “sloppiness” allowed Real Madrid back into the game.

Ogden: I think Neuer reminded us all in the Bernabéu that it really matters to have a world-class goalkeeper. Madrid were without theirs and ended up on the losing side, largely because of Neuer’s heroics and Lunin’s less inspiring performance. And who knows? Maybe PSG will miss out on back-to-back Champions League triumphs because they offloaded Gianluigi Donnarumma and ended up with two keepers who aren’t as good as the Italy No. 1, even if you put them both in goal at the same time.

There’s no doubt that Neuer has given Bayern a huge advantage going into the second leg, but it’s still too close to call. If Real turn up with Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham on their game next week, they can easily turn this tie around and make it to the semifinals. Maybe it will come down to which goalkeeper performs best again.

Tighe: I’m glad you mentioned Bayern’s dominance on the night, Gab. If you missed the game and judged it by either the highlight reel or the stats sheet — where Madrid equalled Bayern’s 20 shots, got one more (nine) on target and created one more big chance (four) — you’d think this was an even game. For the most part, it was not.

But those last 15 minutes — that felt like anyone’s game. It’s perhaps not that Bayern could not control proceedings and more that they didn’t seem interested in doing so, or that Bellingham made such a difference in midfield that Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic suddenly couldn’t cope. That’s when Neuer became especially critical.

It seems like a ropey tactic given the 40-year-old’s form has been seriously indifferent this term — unlike, say, that of Courtois, whom you can feel comfortable leaning on. But it looks like this Bayern team are going to attack, attack, attack their way to attempted Champions League glory, so Neuer might need a few more big nights yet.

Q3. Arsenal wobbled again Tuesday night in Lisbon, putting up subpar attacking stats and taking a narrow 1-0 first leg lead back to the Emirates thanks to Kai Havertz‘s injury-time goal. It wasn’t a classic match, but David Raya (continuing the goalkeeper theme) and Mikel Arteta’s subs changed the game. Can we still consider Arsenal a favorite in this competition considering their underwhelming play of late?

Marcotti: You said a favorite, right? Considering they’re 1-0 up before the home leg, which bodes well for the semifinal, sure, you have to say they’re a favorite, but I think — and not for the first time — that we’ve seen Arsenal’s limits against well-organized opponents. Solidity, intensity and set-pieces only take you so far.

Against Sporting, they missed Bukayo Saka and the “real” Martin Ødegaard, but neither has been a big contributor this year. Injuries are a part of it, but I think there’s also a conscious choice in taking a more defensive approach from Arteta that has hampered their output. Maybe it was the right choice in terms of giving Arsenal the best possible shot to win the Premier League, but in a two-legged format deep in the Champions League, it can limit what you do.

As for Raya, he’s been immense most of the season. I imagine most people will have Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice or William Saliba ahead of him as Arsenal’s Player of the Year, but Raya should be right up there.

Laurens: I’m not sure why people are surprised or disappointed by the current level and style of this Arsenal side. Their identity is not free-flowing, attacking football. They are capable of great performances and have done so many times this season (against Bayern, for example), but when you are without four starters (Saka, Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapié, Jurriën Timber), it’s harder. Arsenal, however, are also a team drilled for control; they’re arguably the best team tactically in the world right now, the most physical side, and the strongest team out of possession — where structure comes first, before any rotations or permutations. That’s why they are so good.

So of course they are still a favorite to win this competition. Nobody would want to face them in the next round, especially as they are guaranteed to play the semifinal second leg at home if they qualify.

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Burley: Arsenal were dull and boring vs Sporting CP

Craig Burley believes Arsenal were underwhelming and failed to impress despite their 1-0 win over Sporting CP.

Ogden: Arsenal are still a favorite because of the way they play. Against Sporting, although the home side played the best football, created the better patterns and had the best chances, it was Arsenal who dominated every physical element of the game. It’s quite depressing to watch at times because there is a real chance that Arsenal could bully their way to Champions League glory and nobody wants that, do they? OK, every Arsenal supporter wants that, but there is no fantasy with this team. It’s all about muscle.

I think Juls is going a bit heavy with the praise, though: are they the best team tactically in the world? I’m not so sure about that, and they don’t control games like PSG control them. But ultimately, the game is about winning, and Arsenal have found a way to do that consistently in the Champions League. They might meet their match if they face Atlético in the semis — that won’t be a game for the purists — but Arsenal are what they are and nobody at the Emirates should apologise for that.

Tighe: Arsenal’s style (or lack of it, depending on who you talk to) doesn’t change my opinion on their Champions League prospects. What does spook me a little is what looks like a drop in confidence levels. At this stage of the tournament, any team that’s positioning themselves as a true favorite should feel like they’re hitting top gear, playing with the utmost confidence in themselves and each other — no matter how that looks stylistically.

Can we say Arsenal are hitting that brief? I’d argue no — or at least not in the same way Bayern have found another level, or PSG seem to be clicking into gear. Very soon there will be just four teams left and if Arsenal are one of them, it’s likely they’ll be third, at best, in my mini ranking of likely winners.

Q4. Hansi Flick and Barça won both LaLiga games against Atleti, but the cup competitions have proved much more the latter’s speed as Flick’s insistence on always pushing for goals plays into Diego Simeone’s strengths. Was the Cubarsi red card legit? And will Atleti rue only taking a 2-0 lead back home with them to defend next week?

Marcotti: No, I think Simeone will be happy with the 2-0 all told. But the interesting thing is how both coaches were pretty counterintuitive at halftime. Cubarsi had just been sent off (and, yes, it was the correct decision in my view) and moving Eric García (who was outstanding, by the way, not often I say that) into the back made sense, but it was surprising to see Pedri come off for Gavi. (Fermín López for Robert Lewandowski was a no-brainer).

Even more surprising was how Barcelona went for it, as if they had to get a result that very night. Conventional wisdom would have suggested being more conservative, perhaps picking some spots on the counter and trusting yourself to turn around the 1-0 deficit in the return leg. But Flick did things his way: Barça had 60% possession and 0.61 xG after the break, despite being a man down. His game plan — except for that Alexander Sørloth moment — worked.

As for Atleti, they were really rattled by Barça’s press. The obvious thing would have been to go for it, to push not just for 2-0, but even more. Instead, they managed just a single shot. I guess 2-0 is better than 1-0, but I’d still be super nervous for the return leg. At one point, Lamine Yamal dribbled past eight opponents, which says a lot about the night he was having. Maybe that’s why Atleti chickened out.

Tighe: Simeone dare not rue “only” being 2-0 up at the halfway point in this tie. After all, his team took one solitary shot in the second half, despite playing against 10 men the entire time. They suffered out of possession and against the press despite the man advantage and generally looked the weaker side in that second period. Yamal’s performance was breathtaking at times, giving Michael Olise a proper run for his money as the round’s best right winger. Some of the jinks into the box, dancing around one, two, three defenders, were simply magnificent. Atleti felt fortunate to come out having not conceded at least once to him alone.

This tie still feels very much alive to me — especially when you consider Atlético will be forced to field a patchwork defence in the second leg, given Marc Pubill is suspended, Dávid Hancko came off injured and Jose Gimenez is perennially hurt.

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Was Pau Cubarsi’s red card vs. Atletico the right call?

Frank Leboeuf and Stewart Robson debate the decision to hand Barcelona’s Pau Cubarsi a red card in their first leg defeat to Atletico Madrid.

Ogden: Sorry Gab, but the Cubarsi red card was a joke. Giuliano Simeone‘s flailing leg was designed to make contact with Cubarsi as the Barcelona player approached him — he isn’t the first Simeone to flick a leg out and get an opponent sent off, but let’s not rage on about a red card back in 1998 — and it ended up with a dismissal that totally the turned the game in Atleti’s favour.

A 2-0 advantage is by no means a tie-winning lead, though, and Barcelona will almost certainly score a couple in the Metropolitano. The big question is how many they will concede and that, unfortunately, is the question that continues to haunt Barça in the Champions League and why they probably won’t win the competition, even if they get through next week.

Laurens: Flick stayed true to himself by wanting his team to keep attacking. He is not a conservative manager, so I don’t really understand Gab’s point here. Even with 10 men, Barcelona could only keep playing and attacking. Why would they do anything different? They could have come back in the game. They just got Simeone-ed by Atlético’s minimalist approach in the second half despite playing with an extra player.

However, this tie is not over. If Atlético can win 2-0 at the Camp Nou, Barcelona and Yamal can also win 2-0 at the Metropolitano. The second leg could be epic, especially considering, as Sam says, Atleti’s defensive issues.