2026 men’s basketball tournament The round of eight continues on Sunday with two monster matchups.
First up, 1-seed Michigan (-7.5, O/U 146.5) takes on 6-seed Tennessee at 2:15 p.m., and 1-seed Duke (-5.5, O/U 133.5) and 2-seed UConn tangle at 5:05 p.m.
Here are my picks for these games and picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
Attention: from obstacles DraftKings Sportsbook
Subject to change at time of publication.
sunday bet
(2) Yukon vs (1) ruler First half over 62.5
I think there is an overall over-improvement here that doesn’t add up. Duke has played several top-15 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the totals have been much higher. The total score against Kansas was 148.5. Against Florida it was 156.5. Against Michigan State it was 141.5. Against Michigan it was 150.5. Duke faced Virginia twice – once in the regular season and once in the ACC Tournament – and the totals were 143.5 and 140.5, respectively. In the end, it was 140.5 against St. John’s. We are now at least seven points fewer than each of those totals against a UConn defense, which is the same as all other opponents. That math is not math for me.
I would cut the game in half because it’s a game script that feels like if it’s not over early, it’s not over late. Duke has been largely better in the second half of this tournament, but Danny Hurley is adept at controlling the game late. UConn’s offense is not on Duke’s level, so I don’t really like their ability to come back here and it looks like they need to score early in this game to keep Duke on their heels. We get low numbers here which we can take advantage of, even if there is less turn-around for both teams.
(6) tennessee Team’s total score less than 69.5
Two things must happen for Michigan to lose this game. They must shoot less than 45% from the field and their opponent must shoot better than 45% from the field. This only happened once this entire season and it was in the 68-63 final against Duke. If the Volunteers have a chance to win this game, it will be incomplete. Tennessee doesn’t have the offense to keep up with the Wolverines and frankly, they haven’t faced that good a defense all season. Florida is the closest comparison, and they limited volunteers to 67 in Gainesville earlier this year.
The Volunteers’ previous opponent, Iowa State, performed well defensively, but since the Cyclones were shooting so poorly from the field, it allowed Tennessee to dictate the pace. Tennessee’s scoring will come from their ability to rebound. The problem for Tennessee is that Michigan is such an elite shooting team, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage, second in 2-point shooting and 30th in 3-point shooting, that rebound opportunities may not occur. Which brings it back to my initial statement that Michigan should shoot less than 45% from the field, which it has only done five times this season.
Tennessee’s offense is not that effective. The only thing they do very well is catch offensive counterattacks. Michigan would dominate them defensively, forcing them into long possessions and bad shots. Even with Wolverine’s speed, there is no problem slowing them down because they are so efficient. My biggest concern here is that the Michigan explosion will allow Tennessee to get late, easy buckets that could put it ahead. I expect a tight, low-scoring defensive game here.
Eliminator Pick: (1) Duke
I still maintain that the winner of Arizona and Michigan is going to win the national championship and in the eliminator tournament, I want them to survive. But despite never dominating a game in this tournament, Duke has continued to find a way to overcome its opponents. It won’t always be pretty, but the Blue Devils are dominant enough to lead the way here.
How to Play ESPN Eliminator Challenge.
Saturday’s bets are under review
(1) Arizona vs (2) Purdue more than 152.5
My conscience tells me to play in regression here against Arizona, which is coming off a 109-point blowout over Arkansas in the Sweet 16. But two things still make me look forward to a high-scoring contest here. First, even after falling back from 64% shooting in their last game, the Wildcats can still reach 80 points because of their elite shotmaking. Second, the Boilermakers’ defense doesn’t impress me. They’re going to be big and overwhelm on the perimeter. It all leads to Arizona points.
Purdue is no slouch in the shotmaking department and its offense is one of the most effective in the country. The Boilermakers play at an extremely slow pace (325th in adjusted pace), and they don’t want to get into a pace battle with Arizona, so their only hope is to keep the ball on offense and try to limit Arizona’s possessions. Being so efficient should compensate for this. I still think Purdue coach Matt Painter knows that scoring at a higher rate than normal is the way to win this game, because Arizona has the defensive edge. The way this game has stood, Arizona is just missing shots at an abnormal rate. The Wildcats did not lose a game this season while shooting 45% or better from the field, while only scoring less than 70 points once. If the Wildcats are missing, Purdue will slow its pace even further and Arizona’s season will likely be over.
Arizona/Illinois Moneyline Parlay (-119)
This game is more chalked up than I ever want to support, but I’m having a hard time seeing any of these teams losing outright. Iowa is set for regression after back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and the Illini beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City in a game they never trailed. I think Iowa is ahead from here. As far as Arizona goes, they’ve always been my pick to win the national championship. Purdue is a very capable team, however their defense has been lacking a bit and they have fallen short in this contest and will lose the battle on the boards to a very tough defensive team in Arizona. This is the Elite 8, so the competition will be tough, but I expect the better team to come out on top in both places.
Eliminator Pick: (3) Illinois
Iowa has been a great story, but the Fighting Illini are a much better team and have played that way. Iowa is coming off a huge upset over Florida and then a win over Nebraska, so the chances of beating teams with two top-10 adjusted efficiency margins in the last three games are slim in my eyes.
