Most probable first-round upsets in the men’s 2026 NCAA tournament

Cinderella has not shown her face recently.

Only five double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2025 men’s NCAA Tournament, and two were 10-seeds, which do not qualify as Giant Killers for the purposes of this column. The Elite Eight was tied for the tightest ever – all featuring top-three seeds or better – and the Final Four was the second ever to include four No. 1-seeds.

But we know that what makes March Madness so much fun is the troubles and trying to spot them before they happen.

To find this year’s potential nominees, we consulted ESPN’s BPI estimates To find the matchups with the highest upset chances. just keep this in mind Possibility does not mean forecast When? filling out your brackets. And the chances of many upheavals this March are slim. NCAA Tournament betting lines are bigger than everAnd our Giant Killer model doesn’t even give any team seeded 11th or worse a 40% chance of winning the first round. That gives only one No. 12 seed — the perennial upset pick that many people love to identify with — a 20% chance of even cracking the brackets.

By comparison, last year there were four matchups with an upset probability over 40%, and eight matchups over 25%. Still, if you’re looking for ways to break up your bracket and win the pool, let’s look at upset options to consider.

Note: Because the two No. 6 vs. No. 11 games are still to be determined by the results of the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Giant Killer model takes all possible matchups into account.

Chances of getting upset: 39%
Thursday at 6:50 pm ET

North Carolina has a very low ceiling with star freshman Caleb Wilson (Broken thumb) Out for the season. As predicted, the Tar Heels’ efficiency numbers decreased in the eight games that Wilson missed, particularly on the offensive glass and in 2-point field goal percentage on offense. And protect. This opens the door for a VCU team that has won 16 of its last 17 games to enter the tournament. The Rams have a balanced, versatile and aggressive offense. All eight of VCU’s regular rotation players have hit at least 18 3s this season, and the Rams are getting to the free throw line at the 15th-highest rate in the country.

Chances of getting upset: 37%
Probable matchup: Thursday at 7:25 pm ET

NC State is entering the tournament having lost seven of its last nine games. But just two years ago, the Wolfpack made the Final Four as an 11-seed. That team stumbled to the finish line in regular season ACC play before winning five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament to earn a berth in the Big Dance. Although this year’s group is much better offensively than the 2024 edition and can keep up with the Cougars on the scoreboard, the Wolfpack’s defense will have to show some teeth to pull off an upset. NC State has allowed 87 points and nearly 11 3-pointers per game in its last nine contests. BYU is not as powerful without richie saunders (ACL), but pair of AJ DiBantsa And Robert Wright III Quite formidable. Provided they beat Texas in Tuesday night’s First Four matchup, the Wolfpack will have to play to their strengths of scoring the ball (ninth-best turnover rate in the country) and shooting 3s (10th-best at 39%) to win this one.

Chances of getting upset: 37%
Probable matchup: Friday at 4:25 pm ET

The Longhorns, like the Wolfpack, are limping in the Big Dance, having lost five of their last six. Scoring isn’t a problem for Texas, but defense is. This will be important for the 7 footer Matus Vokiaitis To stay on the court. He has been in foul trouble often this season, but could be the difference maker in this matchup as Texas looks to keep pace with a thin but still potent BYU attack. However, Texas must first defeat NC State.

Chances of getting upset: 25%
Probable matchup: Friday at 4:25 pm ET

The Giant Killers model likes SMU to take care of Miami (Ohio) in the First Four on Wednesday, but it’s not as keen on the Mustangs’ production against the Vols. Their troubled expectations may depend on how bj edwards – the team’s best defender – is hoping to return from an ankle injury that has caused him to miss SMU’s last five games (the Mustangs went 1-4 in those games). Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, but is prone to turnovers. The Mustangs need to win the turnover battle and capitalize.

Chances of getting upset: 24%
Thursday at 1:50 pm ET

According to the model, High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance of winning, and it could be one of the highest-scoring games of the first round. The Panthers are all about turnover differential. They are in the top five nationally in turnover rate Both Score 21 points per game in his end of the court and from miscues. However, no one is better than Wisconsin at avoiding live-ball turnovers, and the Badgers shoot it well too. wisconsin guard John Blackwell And nick boyd They have combined for 50 points per game in their last four contests, so slowing down that duo will be important for High Point.

Chances of getting upset: 19%
Thursday at 1:30 pm ET

Although the chances of an upset appear slim here, there is uncertainty surrounding the health of Louisville’s freshman guard mikel brown jr. (back) could play a big role in whether the Bulls play giant killer or not. USF is 19-3 since late December, with those three losses by a combined total of 5 points. Both teams want to increase the pace but their approach is different. No complaints about it, Louisville wants to shoot 3s – the Cards make 11.5 per game, which is 41% of their scoring. And although the Bulls have a pair of snipers with over 100 3s (wes ennis And joseph pinion), they lead the nation in second-chance points thanks to isiah nelson. This is why this game has the highest score on the board in the first round.

Chances of getting upset: 19%
Thursday 3:15 pm ET

This 5 vs. 12 matchup has some similarities to High Point-Wisconsin. McNeese is rich on takeaways (22.3 points off turnovers per game, tops in the country), but Vandy takes good care of the ball. Which force will win? backcourt pair of tyler tanner And duke miles McNeese Ball’s pressure may be tough to break, but don’t count out the Cowboys, who were one of two 12-seeds to win last year’s dance.

Chances of getting upset: 18%
Friday at 12:40 pm ET

Tech’s national championship hopes took a big blow when All-American JT Toppin Suffered a season-ending ACL injury a month earlier. The Red Raiders are coming in with three consecutive losses, but they are still as dangerous as any team from beyond the arc and are led by Dynamic Christian Anderson (18.9 ppg, 7.6 apg). Texas Tech relies heavily on the 3-ball (43% of its points come from deep) and so does Akron (39% from 3), which has won 10 in a row and 19 of 20 entering the tournament. The Zips are the smallest team in the field this year, so it will be important for them to be efficient offensively and defend the line at the other end, which has been an issue for them this season.

Chances of getting upset: 15%
Friday at 7:10 pm ET

If UNI is to pull off the upset, it will have to control the tempo, make perimeter shots and limit the Johnnies to one shot per possession. St. John’s is one of the nation’s leaders in second-chance points, especially thanks to zubi ejiofor And dylan mitchell. Unfortunately for the Panthers, their ability to drive opponents away from the 3-point line won’t be so helpful against a Red Storm team that loves to do damage in the paint. The 6-6, 235-pound incoming freshman from Northern Iowa this season tristan smith Returning from injury in February, and the Panthers will need his presence if they are to pull off a surprise.

Where is Miami (Ohio) you may ask?

The model gives the RedHawks only a 10% chance of upsetting Tennessee should they beat SMU to advance to the first round. After being sent to Dayton despite only losing one game all season, Travis Steele’s team will certainly have plenty of motivation to prove themselves.