Way-too-early college football coaching hot seat tiers

The coaching carousel of college football spins at different speeds, often alternating between chaotic and calm depending on the year.

After a relatively eventful cycle in 2024-25, the latest carousel The move came fast and furiously, boasting coaches ranging from the expected (Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Florida’s Billy Napier) to the surprising (Penn State’s James Franklin, LSU’s Brian Kelly) to the downright shocking (Michigan’s Sharon Moore). The SEC and Big Ten combined made nine coaching changes, including four programs – Michigan, LSU, Auburn and Florida – that have won national titles in the last 20 seasons. There were several coaching changes in all four power conferences.

The scope of the carousel and the programs involved make it easy to forget that the number of coaching changes could have been much greater. For reasons ranging from heavy buyouts to administrative flux, many coaches were barely able to keep their jobs after disappointing seasons. They will enter the fall under undeniable pressure to perform, and a midseason change is again possible, if not likely.

The upcoming carousel may not be as strong as its predecessor, but another wild cycle is likely, especially if some jobs open up in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12. Although we look at the coaching hot seat through the lens of who could be fired, there are other reasons for changes, including the NFL, which will continue to assess Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Oregon’s Dan Lanning and other college coaches.

To help sort out what could happen in the coaching ranks during and beyond the 2026 season, Tierles is back.

Go up a level:
the hottest | want it to work
it will cost us | need progress
retirement clock | group of 6

hottest to hottest

Norvell tops the list for the second year in a row. FSU opened the 2025 season with a blowout win against Alabama and a 3–0 start. The team lost its first four ACC games and finished 5–7, missing a bowl for the second straight season after a 13–0 start and a conference title in 2023. The lucrative contract Norvell received after Alabama pursued him early in 2024 continued to work in his favor, as did Florida State’s precarious financial situation. But Norvell clearly needs to produce better results, possibly eight or more wins, to secure his position for 2027 and beyond. FSU has a challenging first half of the schedule that includes SMU (home), Alabama (road), Virginia (home), Miami (road) and Louisville (road). A bad start could lead to a change in the mid-season.

The main difference between Fickell and some of the other coaches featured here is that his athletic director, Chris McIntosh, remains firmly in his corner. McIntosh boldly hired Fickell from Cincinnati in the fall of 2022, rather than promoting program veteran Jim Leonhard to the permanent role. Fickell’s performance is directly tied to McIntosh retaining the coach despite a six-game slump in 2025, which included consecutive shutouts for the first time since 1977. Wisconsin promised more financial aid to the roster and other areas and showed some late improvement with home wins against Washington and Illinois. The Badgers open 2026 against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, but have a favorable schedule that does not include Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State or Michigan. Fickell certainly has a chance, but he can’t afford a repeat of the past two seasons.

Baylor did not go through 2025 without any major changes, but as athletic director Mack Rhodes resigned after more than nine years in charge. Aranda, who is 22-28 after leading Baylor to the Big 12 championship in 2021, might not have kept his job if Rhodes had remained in charge of the athletic department. Now he must win over new AD Doug McNamee and re-establish the Bears as a Big 12 contender. Baylor’s defense has slipped over the past two seasons, ranking 105th in points allowed (29.5) over the span. The team will try to bring continuity with a quarterback transfer. dj lagway And navigate a schedule that starts at Auburn in Atlanta.

Locksley’s ability to recruit and build a roster is undeniable. Maryland has had five or more selections in two of the last three NFL drafts and signed the nation’s No. 2 overall recruit at defensive end zion alleyOut of baltimore. But Locksley has struggled to convert talent into wins, as Maryland has posted identical records – 4-8 overall, 1-8 in Big Ten play – the past two seasons. Athletic director Jim Smith, who took over in May, is giving Locksley another year as quarterback to get things right malik washington And others return. But anything short of a bowl appearance should change quickly, as Maryland’s schedule is manageable enough not to include Indiana or Oregon.

we want it to work

Beamer has undeniably improved South Carolina’s profile, recording AP Top 25 finishes in 2022 and 2024, and defeating top-12 Clemson teams in both seasons. But memories are short in the SEC, and the Gamecocks lagged behind last season, finishing 4-8 with just one conference win. Beamer and staff did a good job in the offseason retaining the quarterback Lanoris Cellarsdefensive end dylan stewart and other key players, and added Kendall Briles as offensive coordinator. Beamer, 48, often talks about his interest in South Carolina and sees the job as more of a destination than other coaches. But a 2025 repeat, especially with Sellers back, will be tough to overcome. Athletic director Jeremiah Donati did not hire Beamer.

After losing coach Jeff Hafley green Bay Packers In January 2024, Boston College appeared to land a late-season coup in O’Brien, who brings NFL and college head coaching experience and grew up not far from campus. O’Brien led the team to seven wins in his first season, but the team faltered last time out, losing 10 games for the first time since 2012 and winning just once in ACC play. Boston College is in no position to cycle through coaches every few years, but another season like 2025, when the Eagles were outscored 278-166 in ACC play, could prompt conversations about change.

it will cost us

Riley’s four years at the helm produced no conference titles or College Football Playoff appearances, as USC is one of the more notable programs to never reach a playoff field. Riley has asked for patience, and USC has made major internal upgrades and signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class this year. Riley’s contract with the school – brokered by previous athletic director Mike Bohn, not current AD Jane Cohen – makes a potential split difficult, even if USC is receiving Big Ten revenue. Another complicating factor is the 2026 schedule, as USC faces Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Penn State this season, with all but Indiana and Penn State at home. Still, the Trojans could have a superior team and still miss the CFP, leading to a decision on Riley.

need progress

Lebby’s team took a step forward from Year 1 to Year 2, especially in non-league play, where the Bulldogs went 4–0 and stunned then-No. 12 Arizona State, the defending Big 12 champion. Mississippi State struggled to 1–7 in SEC play, and although it lost two games in overtime and another game by two points, it suffered a 128–67 loss in its final three league games. Athletic director Zack Selman hired Lebby, who had made some improvements to the offense last season. But at 1-15 in SEC games, Lebby will have to produce some meaningful results this fall to ensure a third season in Starkville.

retirement clock

When Belichick surprisingly took the UNC job at age 72, he was not viewed as a long-term fixture in Chapel Hill. He’s back for a sophomore year after a rocky, four-win start that generated more headlines about his personal life and the program’s internal challenges than any on-field success. If UNC has a rerun of what happened in 2025, Belichick could move on to something else. Even a successful second season won’t rule out talk of retirement, as Belichick will turn 74 in April. He is signed for the 2029 season.

Ferentz turned 70 on August 1 and became the Big Ten’s all-time coaching wins leader a few weeks later. He led Iowa to an impressive 9–4 season, with all four losses (including to eventual national champion Indiana) by five points or less. Ferentz is healthy and energetic, and still enjoys coaching despite some major changes in the game. His age and longevity at Iowa, where he begins his 28th season as head coach this fall, will keep him in this category until he calls it quits. What is left for Ferentz to accomplish in Iowa City? The school’s first CFP appearance would be a fitting way to end a decorated career.

Sanders is entering his fourth season in Colorado and has already exceeded some early projections for how long he would stay in Boulder. They love living and working there and have significant influence on how Colorado runs its program. But Sanders’ recurring health problems, including bladder removal and reconstructive surgery last spring, could ultimately limit how long he coaches the Buffaloes, who went from nine wins in 2024 to nine losses last season. As for Sanders, who will turn 59 in August, the question seems to be less about whether he’ll leave Colorado for another college job but rather how long his health will hold out. They’ll have another chance to get the program moving again this fall.

group of 6

With Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure as coach set to end in 2023, Middle Tennessee made a notable hire in Mason, who coached in-state at Vanderbilt and brings significant Power 4 experience. But Mason has not been able to lead the program to seven bowl appearances under Stockstill between 2013 and 2022, as Middle Tennessee has suffered consecutive 3-9 seasons. Since guiding Vanderbilt to a bowl game in 2018, Mason is just 9-35 as an FBS coach. He will need better results to ensure a fourth season in Murfreesboro.

EMU was under scrutiny by the coaching industry at the end of last season, as the team suffered a losing season for the second consecutive season. Creighton accomplished what no one in Ypsilanti could, guiding Eastern Michigan to six bowl appearances in eight seasons from 2016 to 2023, including four straight. The team had just one bowl appearance before his arrival in 1987. But improved performance also raises expectations, and after 12 seasons as EMU’s coach, Creighton must reach bowl eligibility again to ensure the trajectory is favorable.

Georgia State hired McGee very late in the 2023-24 cycle, which could have given him a little more time to get things right. But the team slipped from Year 1 to Year 2, finishing 1–11 overall, 0–8 in Sun Belt play and 0–11 against FBS opponents. Last time the Panthers were defeated 454-237. McGee arrived with deep recruiting roots in the state and a previous stint with the program from 2014 to 2015. Minimal progress may be enough to secure a fourth season, but he’ll need to start winning in the Sun Belt, where he’s just 1-15 at the top.