Don’t be surprised if … Julius Randle finishes top 10 in fantasy points, Andrew Nembhard is a top-50 option

Each week in the NBA has its own story – filled with surprises, both positive and negative – and fantasy basketball To move forward, managers must decide who to trust and who not. Maybe we can help. Don’t be surprised if any of these ideas come true…

It would be unfair to say that no one wanted Randle on fantasy draft day, but still, a few felt that way Greed This is an otherwise productive player who always seems to move up in the draft based on his production. Randle entered Thursday with the 10th-most ESPN fantasy points, 49 points ahead of his far more ballyhooed teammate. Anthony Edwards. Some will argue that Randle is the better player, but because of his durability and all-around game, the underrated Randle also got fantasy points.

Randle is underrated, and with the Timberwolves in the race for playoff position, every game matters, and the risk of him sitting out is very low. This is not the version of Randle who averaged 25.1 ppg and 10 rpg new York Knicks In 2022-23, before the surprise trade carl-anthony town (which ranks 23rd in fantasy points), but Randle is currently averaging 21.9 ppg (up from 18.7 ppg last season) and 6.9 rpg, along with 5.3 apg, a career-high 1.1 spg and 1.5 3ppg. His 48.9% FG% is his best since 2018-19, his lone New Orleans Pelicans Season. His 82.1 FT% is a career mark, and his 2.6 TPG is his lowest since Los Angeles Lakers Day. Ultimately this is a skilled player.

Edwards, of course, is one of the hottest scorers in the league, averaging 29.6 ppg, third behind luka doncic And Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderMaybe an MVP candidate. No one in fantasy would trade Edwards for Randle, but Edwards, while scoring more traditional points than ever before, has seen his points drop in rebounding, assists and 3-pointers, and his free throw shooting has declined. Edwards also missed 10 games this season. Randle has not missed a single game. This way Randle has more points. It’s kind of cheating, but Randle deserves credit. For some reason, he is the only one among the top 20 fantasy scorers in less than 99% of leagues. still!

What would it be worth to trade for Edwards in fantasy these days? The No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft has been a clear first-round fantasy talent every season, so it will be expensive. However, Randle is averaging 39.7 FPPG (up from 33.3 FPPG last season) and is one of the top bargain options in fantasy, and he is underrated. Trade less for his services and enjoy it more!

Another Timberwolves thought: C Rudy Gobert Returned Tuesday from a one-game suspension for a serious foul and pulled down 19 rebounds against Portland, bringing his season mark to 11.4 rpg, fourth in the NBA. Gobert boasts more rebounds than points! They’ve never finished a season like this before. Let’s just say Gobert is also underappreciated. Free throw shooting (50.6%) is a huge problem, but it’s hard to find a more consistent big man over the past decade. While the Edwards-Randle race for Timberwolves fantasy supremacy is interesting, Gobert vs. teammates and reserves is also interesting Naz Reed (Gobert leads by 39 points).

Don’t be surprised if… Indiana Pacers PG Andrew Nembhard Finishes as a top-50 fantasy option

Nembhard, ninth-round pick in ESPN ADP only because Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton Tore his Achilles in last season’s playoffs (and will miss the season), was supposed to take over a larger role and produce numbers. Did anyone expect him to average 17.4 ppg and 7.4 apg? Probably not. Nembhard was a complementary player during his first three NBA seasons, averaging 10 ppg and 5 apg last season as somewhat of a deep-league, fantasy asset. This season, Nembhard is averaging 33.7 fPPG. His 7.4 APG ranks seventh in the league. He may not get any notice for the league’s Most Improved Player award (Portland’s). deni avdija and detroit Jalen Duren Are Stars), but fantasy managers certainly took notice.

In fact, one could argue that Nembhard is one of the better surprises of the season for roto/range formats (where assists are very important) when comparing production vs. ADP. Avdija and Duren were sixth-round APD selections. utah jazz PG keyonte george (Ankle), and he’s scoring 23.8 ppg, but he hasn’t helped us lately. What atlanta hawks sg Nichelle Alexander-Walker (19.8 ppg) has also been pretty surprising, but his impact is greater for scoring formats. Nembhard is a legitimate point guard, and may have to relegate himself to fantasy next season as Haliburton returns. What a strange situation.

Other Thoughts

• Next game for charlotte hornets PG lamelo ball It will be his 50th, which is already more than any season since 2021-22. Give Ball credit for only missing 10 of the first 59 games, as his lack of durability was the main/only reason for him fading in fantasy drafts. Can we draw a hypothetical line between Ball staying (mostly) healthy while still adjusting his game to very low shooting? Ball averaged 25.2 ppg last season. Despite draining 10 3-pointers in recent games, he’s unlikely to average 20 PPG this season. He’s averaging 38.2 FPPG, down from 42.4 last season, but I think we’ll all be in for a bit of a lack of production if he continues his consistent pace over 65 games.

• More Hornets: A month ago I wrote that the Hornets rookie SG Con Knuppel May lead the NBA in 3-pointers. Nueppel became the first player to reach 200 3-pointers in Tuesday’s win over the Bulls (Cleveland) Donovan Mitchell 10 3-pointers behind). Others record more 3-pointers per game, but Knueppel has been more durable. Since he also hits these shots at a solid 43.6% clip (10th in the league), it’s worth reiterating that Knueppel could average something like 25 PPG next season. dallas mavericks SF/PG/PF cooper flag The stats for winning a Rookie of the Year award are amazing, and that’s amazing, but Knueppel is going to score more fantasy points. Each could be a top 20 fantasy option next season.

• It may or may not be too early to see what will happen Brooklyn Nets PG egor demin The keeper is for the league. The 6-foot-8 Demin, who turns 20 on March 3, can certainly play point guard, but the Nets aren’t really asking him to do so in any traditional sense. Most of Demin’s shots are 3-pointers, and there is an upside option for scoring. Brooklyn’s leaders in aid are C nick claxton At 4.1 gpg, which is ok, but not perfect alperen sengunOne of the two. Depending on who the Nets add in the draft, Demin could carry this offense, and his second year could be exciting for fantasy, something like 17 ppg, 6 apg, 3.2 3ppg. Hmm, could that be possible? Peyton Pritchard?

• In a league with so many teams (like a third of the league), it’s nice to see the New Orleans Pelicans SG/PG Dejounte Murray Start your season in late February. trey young And ivica zubac He’s probably healthier than Murray right now, but Murray is the one pushing to play while those teammates may be done (and won’t be playing for their new teams). It’s strange that Murray is available in over 60% of ESPN leagues. He probably won’t average last year’s numbers (17.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 7.4 apg, 2 spg), but if the Pelicans let him play – they have no reason not to, as tanking isn’t an issue – he could be a top 50 investment for the rest of the season.

• Another member of the Utah Jazz goes down! Losing C stinks Jusuf NurkicSince he averaged a double-double (10.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, with 4.8 apg!) and he probably could have played despite this nose injury if he and the team wanted/needed, but at least we have clarity. He did it. with joel embiidFor example, we never have clarity. Anyway, second year P.F. kyle filipowski There really is no excuse anymore. He has appeared in 75% of ESPN leagues and is averaging 12.7 ppg and 8.2 rpg as a starter. This is a good investment. Filipowski and PG Isaiah Collier Could be the Billy Volek/Drew Bennett of this year’s fantasy playoff season (check them out).