UCL talking points: Madrid, PSG or Italian football — who is worse off?

The knockout playoff round of UEFA Champions League concluded this week and, ahead of Friday’s draw for the last 16, we have A LOT to talk about.

Seventeen goals and three red cards in four games capped an absolutely chaotic night on Wednesday, with Galatasaray edging Juventus in extra time, Borussia Dortmund conspiring to give up a two-goal lead to Atalanta, and Benfica giving the Bernabéu a scare before eventually succumbing to Real Madrid.

The evening prior, Bodø/Glimt‘s fairytale continued with a comprehensive 5-2 aggregate win over Internazionale, while Atlético Madrid and Newcastle United made light work of Club Brugge and FK Qarabag, respectively.

ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti break down the action as it happened as we look ahead to the Round of 16.

– UCL as it happened: Gala’s extra-time win over Juve caps chaotic day
– Kirkland: Viní Jr. brings star power, but worries abound for Real Madrid
– O’Halloran: The secret behind Bodø/Glimt’s European success

Q1. Real Madrid defeated Jose Mourinho’s Benfica 3-1 on aggregate, but were hardly convincing. Is winning while playing badly a sign of a champion team? Or are Los Blancos going to come undone in the Champions League sooner rather than later?

Marcotti: I feel like I’m repeating myself here. Real Madrid CAN win the Champions League (and LaLiga too for that matter) because they have a shutdown keeper in Thibaut Courtois and a consummate goal-scorer in Kylian Mbappé. And if you set up your team to basically defend (with Courtois as insurance) while you wait for one of the front two to do something special, it just might work, because they’re that good. But, no, you won’t look convincing doing it. It’s hard to see how any coach can make this poorly assorted group look convincing (Xabi Alonso might have had a shot, but we know how that ended), let alone Alvaro Arbeloa. It’s the nature of football right now. The top teams have so much talent they don’t actually need to “look convincing” to win games.

Laurens: I disagree with Gab and I hope I am wrong as I want Mbappé to win the Champions League, but I really don’t believe this version of Real Madrid can win the competition this season with this manager and this squad. I have rarely seen them actually dominating in every aspect of a game. There is always something missing, and to win the Champions League, even in an average season like this one, you need to be able to play with nothing missing. You have the best keeper in the world in Courtois, the best striker in the world in Mbappé, and one of the best wingers in the world in Vinícius Júnior but, collectively, the whole structure is flawed.

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Burley: Real Madrid don’t look like they can win the Champions League

Craig Burley assesses Real Madrid’s Champions League hopes after their second leg playoff win over Benfica.

Tighe: I’ve seen Real Madrid play extremely poorly a number of times this season, but that often hasn’t stopped them winning. As Gab notes, that’s the way of things when you have elite players in key positions. But at no point have I felt like Madrid’s individual quality and natural affinity with this tournament can override the fact that several other teams look streets ahead of them, and so therefore Los Blancos must be considered a long shot to win it all.

This latest performance — a 2-1 home victory over Benfica — changed nothing. Despite the win, Madrid were terrible. Lackadaisical passing, endless turnovers … they ran it fine. Benfica threatened consistently, scored and hit the bar. Put Arbeloa’s team against a genuinely excellent side — one that finished in the top four of the league phase — and let’s see what happens.

Ogden: I’m torn on this one because I think Madrid’s midfield will let them down against a really top team, but then I don’t think there is a really top team in the competition this season. Every other big team has flaws that Real could punish because they have lethal forwards in Mbappé, Vinícius and Jude Bellingham who can — fitness permitting — always pop up and score a big goal. And Gab is right about Courtois. He’s the best goalkeeper in the world, so when you have the best keeper and the best forward — Mbappé — then of course you can win it. It will all come down to Real Madrid blowing hot or cold, but worse teams than this one have won the Champions League.

Q2. AS Monaco pushed Paris Saint-Germain all the way in their tie, with Les Parisiens eventually winning 5-4 on aggregate. Do the defending champions have enough in the tank to go back-to-back?

Laurens: I am afraid not and I am at peace with it. I would have loved my Parisians to go back-to-back but there is a reason why only two clubs have done it since the late 80s, AC Milan and Real Madrid. It is bloody hard to do. This PSG squad reached their heavenly peak last season with four extraordinary months that saw them beating half of the Premier League and demolishing Inter Milan in the final. All the planets aligned at the right time and they won’t go through this again, not just this season but probably never again period. For now, they are still in this and will face Chelsea or Barcelona in the last 16. It could all stop there, especially if they play the Catalans. But it could also last a bit longer with a fit Ousmane Dembélé, a fit Fabián Ruiz, and Vitinha in better form (can we also have Gianluigi Donnarumma back please?). But all the way again? Not this year.

Marcotti: PSG have lost six games this season in all competitions. Last year, despite their slow start, they had lost three. That said, four of those six losses were against French clubs, and there aren’t any left in the competition. (The other two were against Bayern Munich and Sporting CP, when they were very unlucky). So I’m not writing them off. I suspect Juls is being unduly hard on his team. They’re a young side, full of energy and, compared to last season, they have another year’s experience. On the flipside, they downgraded their keeper (sometimes I think Donnarumma on his own is better than Matvey Safonov AND Lucas Chevalier standing in the goalmouth at the same time). Yeah, repeating is tough, but no reason to write them off.

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Moreno: PSG could get exposed in Champions League knockouts

Alejandro Moreno reacts to PSG’s progression to the Champions League knockouts after a 5-4 aggregate win over Monaco.

Ogden: I was in Paris for the second-leg against Monaco and I was struck by how flat PSG were. The atmosphere in the Parc des Princes was also unusually quiet. Maybe everybody is just worn out by the last 12 months? The mental toll of having to defend a title is hard enough, but PSG also played on until mid-July in the Club World Cup, so it’s no surprise they look shot to pieces. I don’t see them beating Barcelona in the next round and I reckon it’s 50-50 against Chelsea. A year ago, PSG were like a tornado ripping through the competition, but all of that energy has gone and there’s no way that they will win it again this season.

Tighe: PSG have fallen so far, it’s so disappointing. There are obvious reasons for it — injury pile-ups and the loss of a star goalkeeper, as the guys have mentioned — but it perhaps also proves how hard it is to maintain a remarkable level for any longer than half a year. With that in mind, I tip my hat to Pep Guardiola, who kept his Barcelona and Manchester City sides ticking at an absurd rate for much, much longer. It’s hard to see Les Parisiens vaulting back into the conversation from here.

Q3. Bodø/Glimt are the story of the 2025-26 Champions League; making it further than any Norwegian team ever, racking up impressive wins over Atlético, Man City and Inter (twice) along the way. How far can this fairytale go? And does their performance give hope to those clubs outside Europe’s top five leagues when it comes to this competition?

Ogden: I think this all depends on Friday’s draw and whether Bodø avoid Manchester City and face Sporting CP instead. I know Bodø hammered City — yes, it was a hammering — when they beat them 3-1 in Norway last month, but I just can’t see lightning striking twice against Guardiola’s team. Bodø could win again at home, but City will have learned their lessons from their trip to the Arctic Circle and, with the second leg at the Etihad, you would expect the Premier League side to win comfortably.

Sporting, though, would be a different matter. Bodø have beaten City and won away against Atlético Madrid and Inter, so the team from Portugal will not hold any fears for Kjetil Knutsen and his players. And yes, every team outside the big leagues can take inspiration from Bodø. If you’re organised, recruit well, and have a smart coach you can beat the top teams.

Laurens: I agree with Oggy. Give Bodø/Glimt a date with Sporting, and they’ll be in the quarterfinals. However, if they face Guardiola’s side, they will have their midweeks free again; Bodø can’t beat Manchester City over two legs.

The most fascinating thing in this whole Arctic Circle fairytale is that they didn’t win any of their first six games in the league phase. Then they beat City and Atlético and miraculously made it into the top 24. There is so much to take away from the Norwegians’ success in terms of organisation, culture, investment and intensity.

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Klinsmann: Inter exit to Bodø/Glimt ‘hugely embarrassing’

Jurgen Klinsmann brands Inter’s Champions League exit at the hands of Bodø/Glimt as a “catastrophe” for the Serie A leaders.

Marcotti: The thing about Bodø is that they’re high risk/high reward. They have to be, because they’re up against far better resourced opponents. They play with a ton of energy, they move like clockwork, and they’re unafraid. That shocks bigger teams, which is part of the reason they do so well. And mentally, they’re super-strong too: witness how they hadn’t actually won until the last few rounds of the group stage, but still showed their resilience. Then there’s the plastic pitch, the Arctic Circle and all that jazz, which helps too.

I think they can shock anybody, but equally, they need a lot of things to go their way (like they did in the first leg against Inter). Let’s just call them the most unpredictable team left in the competition.

Tighe: The best thing about this Bodø/Glimt squad is that many of their key protagonists are basically misfits — they moved to Europe’s top leagues, couldn’t cut it and ended up in the Arctic Circle, rehabbing their career. Forward Jens Petter Hauge failed at AC Milan and Eintracht Frankfurt; Patrick Berg made a big move to Lens, but was sent back within the year; Kasper Høgh — the guy who can’t stop scoring and assisting — is on his sixth Scandinavian club by age 25.

These players not only find themselves in the perfect environment, but they all feel like they have something to prove to the world. That’s a dangerous combination that knows no limit.

Q4. Juve were sent packing by Galatasaray, Inter were dismantled by Bodø, and Atalanta squeaked past a Dortmund side that clearly has an appetite for self-destruction. Oh and Napoli didn’t even make the knockout rounds! With the national team staring down the barrel of a playoff to even qualify for the (expanded) World Cup, should we be worried about the state of Italian soccer?

Laurens: Even Gab can be wrong sometimes! Before the start of Tuesday’s games, he told us: “Don’t worry, Inter and Atalanta will be fine…” Sadly if you are a Nerazzurri fan, you are not fine. Atalanta, seventh in Serie A, on their second manager of the season and who lost their best player, Ademola Lookman, in the January transfer window, are saving Italian football from total embarrassment. And it is not a surprise.

We watch Serie A every weekend: it’s the league with the most 0-0 draws (by far) this season amongst the big five leagues, the league with the least intensity (apart from Como and, to a lesser degree, Atalanta) amongst the big five leagues, the league where 40-year-old Luka Modric is one of the best players this season. And I could go on, too…

In 2023, Serie A had a finalist in each of the three European competitions. The Italians lost them all and, three years later, even those “successes” feel like a distant memory.

Tighe: There’s no doubt that certain members of Italy’s traditional top order feel weak right now. You only have to scroll back a handful of years to remember AC Milan and Inter duelling in a Champions League semifinal! Less than 10 years ago, Juventus signed Cristiano Ronaldo for €100 million as they sought to take the final step and win this competition. But now? Several traditional Serie A big guns appear to lack that presence at Europe’s top table.

That said, there must be some room for nuance here. Knockout tournaments are by nature quite random, something Inter can clearly attest to. They put up 2.29 xG in their 2-1 second-leg loss to Bodø/Glimt after smacking the woodwork several times in the first leg. It’s football, sometimes things go wrong. Add that to Napoli’s injury issues (and the fact they’re managed by Antonio Conte, who habitually struggles in Europe) and it’s worth considering whether some of this is just … circumstantial.

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Leboeuf & Marcotti clash over late penalty decision for Atalanta

Frank Leboeuf and Gab Marcotti discuss the penalty decision that sent Atalanta to the Champions League knockouts.

Ogden: Italian football seems to be frozen in time. The national team is facing the prospect of missing a third successive World Cup and, even if they qualify, the lack of quality in Gennaro Gattuso’s squad means they will do well to reach the knockout stages from there. Former Italy legend Alessandro Del Piero spoke earlier this week about a lack of investment in stadia by the top Italian clubs and a talent drain that has seen the best Italian youngsters playing for clubs outside of Italy. He also mentioned the comfort zone that sees the major clubs trade players between themselves rather than look to global markets.

It’s amazing to think that, since Inter won the Champions League in 2010, only two European trophies have been won by Italian clubs: AS Roma (UEFA Conference League, 2022) and Atalanta (UEFA Europa League, 2024). The top players don’t play in Italy anymore and that’s ultimately why their clubs are failing in the Champions League.

Marcotti: OK, I’ll bite. Juls, a distant memory? Serie A has sent as many teams to the Champions League final in the last four years as the Premier League. Serie A has many problems — one of the biggest is folks (like Oggy) comparing them to the past when, between 1985 and 2000ish, they routinely acquired the world’s best players and dominated the game. The world has changed. European football is dominated by the same 10-12 super-clubs and for a variety of reasons, and Italy’s big clubs aren’t on a par with the super-clubs in Spain, or Bayern, or PSG. That’s essentially what we’re talking about here.

Beyond that, Oggy is right when he talks about complacency and horrendous leadership — less so about stadiums (they could use an upgrade, sure, but it’s not going to move the needle) and the national team (lack of talent isn’t the reason they’re in the playoffs). But let’s also be a little nuanced here.

Inter could have scored five in the first leg against Bodø, and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Nor would we be having it if Florian Wirtz hadn’t taken a dive in injury time, because they’d be in Round of 16. Atalanta — sorry guys, I know you planned this question when you thought they were going out — are seventh in Serie A and knocked out Dortmund, second in the Bundesliga. And they did it without their best midfielder and two starting strikers. So maybe take a chill pill here.

Q5. Now that the playoff round is complete, which match are you hoping gets drawn in Friday’s last 16?

Marcotti: I really don’t care, but since you’re asking nicely, Newcastle United vs. Barcelona would be fun and colorful. And also a distinct contrast in styles (Anthony Gordon against that high line … how about that?) Bayern’s Jonathan Tah against his old club, Bayer Leverkusen, would be fun too.

Laurens: You know me, I am a blockbuster guy. I don’t care that much about lovely fairytale stories and about getting as many smaller clubs in the later stages of the competition, so I want big games in the last 16. I want Atletico vs. Liverpool, Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, PSG vs. Chelsea, and Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich.

The rest, especially Newcastle vs. Barcelona will be great to watch, like Atalanta vs. Arsenal, but all I ask of UEFA is that we get a ton of big club vs. big club matches in the next round!

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Why is Woltemade playing out of position for Newcastle?

Craig Burley and Steve Nicol try to make sense of Newcastle using striker Nick Woltemade in a deeper role.

Ogden: I’m with Juls on this one. It feels like it’s taken forever to get to the games that matter in this season’s Champions League, but we’re finally here now, so let’s get as many heavyweights slugging it out against each other as possible.

But one tie that intrigues me is PSG vs. Chelsea/Barcelona because PSG are so difficult to gauge this season. Will they take revenge on Chelsea for beating them in the Club World Cup final, or will it be a resumption of their epic Champions League rivalry with Barça? Either way, PSG have two blockbuster games coming up.

Tighe: My one request to the draw gods is that they go easy on the all-domestic ties. The really fun part of the Champions League is watching teams who don’t play each other a minimum of twice a year lock horns, representing their nations’ reputations in the process.

So, with that in mind, Chelsea please avoid Newcastle, and Bayern please avoid Leverkusen. And if I’m on my best behaviour, can I please have PSG vs. Barcelona? It’ll be a sorry version of what last season’s final should have been — but I’ll take it all the same.