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Kevin Pelton
multiple authors
One year ago Tuesday, luka doncic played my first game with Los Angeles Lakersdebut nine days later ESPN’s Shams Charania gave the shocking news that dallas mavericks traded their franchise player to LA
With the Lakers still avoiding ill-advised moves after winning the 2020 NBA Championship and adding Doncic, the trade still hasn’t shifted the balance of power in the Western Conference.
The Lakers’ 32-20 record is almost identical to last year, when they were 32-19 after a win in Doncic’s debut.
But adding an MVP candidate at his peak — and, just as important, getting him to agree to a three year contract extension Doncic was put under contract last summer through at least 2027-28 — already making a dramatic difference in the way the Lakers do business. A team that ran through a pair of Clutch Sports-represented anthony davis And Lebron James Now built around Doncic’s timeline.
Let’s revisit the first 365 days Doncic spent playing for the Lakers – and preview what’s to come as they try to return to championship contention.
Production of Leaner Luca
Predictably, Doncic’s debut performance was forgettable. After missing more than a month due to a calf strain, he missed six of seven 3-pointers in a win over lottery-bound utah jazzFinishing with 14 points on 5-of-14 shooting. It took four games, with the All-Star break in between, for Doncic to score 20 points as a Laker.
After overcoming the rust, Doncic averaged 28.2 points and 7.5 assists on 44% shooting in 28 games for the Lakers last season. That level of performance, which was historic for almost all players, was merely pedestrian for him. Both his shooting and playmaking were Doncic’s lowest points since his rookie campaign.
In the wake of an injury-plagued campaign, Doncic transformed his physique last summer, with the added motivation of responding to anonymous criticism of his conditioning and commitment from Dallas front office sources.
It’s impossible to say exactly how much that change has contributed to Doncic playing in 42 of the Lakers’ first 50 games despite his absence lasting longer than the first three games. suffering from hamstring injury on Thursday against philadelphia 76ers. However, he has certainly proven to be more durable than Davis, who only managed 29 regular-season games before being traded to the Mavericks. washington wizards Last week.
So far, Doncic’s improved conditioning has not translated into significantly better performance than his Dallas peak, suggesting that those conditioning problems may have been exaggerated.
Doncic’s 32.8 points per game this season are actually similar to his last two full campaigns with the Mavericks, albeit in slightly fewer minutes. (Doncic’s usage rate is 38% this season.) Perhaps the most notable change is that Doncic is leading the league in free throws made (8.5) and attempted (10.9) per game, surpassing his career-high average of 10.5 foul shots in 2022-23.
Of course, Doncic didn’t really need this. Improvement His production, finishing third in MVP voting in his final full season with Dallas. During Doncic’s first 365 days with the Lakers, only the reigning MVP was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of oklahoma city thunder Doncic has more regular-season wins after replacement by my WARP metric compared to Doncic’s 14.1.
Doncic’s timeline is being switched
The most interesting move the Lakers made since adding Doncic was the one that ultimately was canceled. Days after the Doncic deal, the Lakers agreed to send Dalton ConnachtA first-round pick and a second swap charlotte hornets to the center mark williamsA 23-year-old lob threat who would have been an ideal pick-and-roll partner for Doncic.
Although the Lakers later canceled Traded due to concerns over Williams’ physical condition, the move represents the first sign that they were prioritizing winning during Doncic’s prime rather than building the best possible team at the end of James’ career.
This became evident in June when the Lakers allowed James to play out the option year of his most recent extension rather than sign a new, long-term contract. James’s agent Rich Paul told this to Charania James wanted to compete for a championship And will keep an eye on the activities of the team.
The Lakers’ addition fits the same philosophy as Williams’ deal last summer: They replaced the veteran 3-and-D wing. Dorian Finney-Smith32, with Jake LaraviaJoe turned 24 in November, and filled their void at center after trading Davis by acquiring Doncic’s fellow 2018 draft pick. deandre ayton.
Since voiding the Williams deal, the Lakers have yet to use their remaining first-round selection in a trade.
The result is that a team is unlikely to make it deep into the playoffs this season. The Lakers are fifth in the West Houston Rockets and this minnesota timberwolves But the conference has the eighth-best point differential. The Lakers are in sixth place Odds to win the West at DraftKings. based on simulation ESPN’s Basketball Power Index LA has won A In playoff series only 25% of the time, there is a high probability of another first round exit.
The Lakers are looking at the summer as a time to turn their fortunes around.
important decisions ahead
As good as Doncic is, acquiring him didn’t solve the Lakers’ biggest problem: a lack of role players capable of supporting their stars. This is something they have failed to address over the years. In fact, the Doncic trade exacerbated the problem by sending away the best 3-and-D player the Lakers have developed since their 2020 title run at guard. max christie.
The Lakers are hoping to try again this summer. After exchanging an expiring contract (gabe vincent) for another (Luke Kennard) In their only in-season trade, the Lakers have just three other players besides Doncic under guaranteed contracts for 2026-27: Knecht, Laravia and the reserve forward. jared vanderbilt.
If the Lakers let James walk and look at Ayton and the veteran guard marcus smart Exercising player options, LA will have more than $50 million in cap space to build a core of Doncic and unrestricted free agents Austin Reeves. Reaves’ $21 million cap hold will certainly be much lower than it was this summer, meaning the Lakers could spend that space and then go over the cap to re-sign him.
Additionally, by waiting until the offseason to trade a first-round pick, the Lakers will be able to offer the three first-rounders they previously had available to them. They can trade their 2026 first-round pick in addition to the 2031 and 2033 picks.
The way the Mavericks built a Finals team around Doncic kyrie irving There should be a model for the Lakers.
Between missing the playoffs in 2023 and winning the West a year later, Dallas drafts a rim-running center Derek Lively II and acquired another through business Daniel Gafford. The Mavericks also got two defensive-minded forwards derrick jones jr (free agency) and pj washington (Trade) who also provided enough shooting to space the floor.
If Dallas is willing to trade with the Lakers again after firing their general manager who made the Doncic trade (Nico Harrison), Gafford and Washington would be sensible trade targets this summer. Mavericks will also move forward in the same way nazi marshalThe team’s replacement after Jones left for free agency after the Finals.
Appears most likely to acquire a center on the unrestricted free agent market Michelle Robinson of new York Knicks And Robert Williams III of portland trail blazers Realistic possibilities.
The Lakers could also run with caution keon ellisthrough which trade was conducted Sacramento Kings till cleveland cavaliers Before the deadline. The Cavs’ tax bill may make them reluctant to make Ellis a strong offer.
Restricted free agency is more tricky for a team like the Lakers that can’t wait until the match period, but denver nuggets Ahead peyton watson – LA-area native who played here UCLA -Can be acquired via sign-and-trade due to Denver’s tax status.
In many ways, the Lakers’ situation this summer is similar to the period when they acquired Davis to pair with James in 2019. The Lakers waited to make that move official, leaving enough cap space to sign 3-and-D wings. Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green with center JaVale McGee. The Lakers took advantage of players’ desire to play in LA and made several minimal signings, adding Rajon Rondo and bringing back Dwight Howard.
The result was championship-caliber depth that the Lakers discarded the following year in pursuit of more shot creation. The trade for Doncic provided the Lakers a way out of that jam. Now, it’s up to them to make the most of their opportunities this summer.
