Next Gen Stats provide a new way to find betting value in Super Bowl LX

Welcome to the next generation of Super Bowl props — literally. When the NFL first implanted chips in each player’s shoulder pads nearly a decade ago, I doubt the league envisioned placing bets on how much player-tracking data was collected… but here we are.

And, in my view, it represents a great place to learn the value of betting. Because, who knows how many times a player reaches 19 mph as a ball carrier? We can be that person.

So, just in time for the Super Bowl, I’ve spent the past week researching these props and building models to predict these Next Gen stats-based categories. Let’s dive in and hopefully find some winners.

Attention: from obstacles DraftKings Sportsbook And is subject to change.

stefon diggs Fastest ball carry speed less than 18.5 mph (-160)

This is my favorite Super Bowl bet, period. When I saw the details of my model – Diggs had an 88% chance of going under this number – I assumed I had made a mistake along the way. So, as a quick baseline check, I went back to see how many times Diggs went over that line this season. Answer? one time. During Week 16 he hit 18.7 mph. Bus!

The maximum speed of the ball carrier is not He It depends on how fast a player will run on the track. Instead, it is about the context in which a player is carrying the ball. A straight line race to the end zone? That’s when players reach speeds of 21 or 22 miles per hour. But Diggs is not that type of player. He is usually not moving downfield on a route, catching a pass past the last defender and running towards the end zone.

kayshon boute To record the most air yards on a single reception (+500)

Calling Bout a downfield player is underestimating how extreme his route tree is. Among wide receivers who ran at least 300 routes this season, including playoffs, Boutte had the highest percentage of deep fades or go routes (30%). he is way ahead quentin johnsonWhich came in second place with 23%, and more than double that of the average player (12%). Boutte doesn’t always catch passes, but when he does, they’re usually downfield. I make +379 fair value here.

Fastest ball carry speed of less than 18.5 mph (-105)

Wait a moment. Didn’t we just talk about how Boutte is a downfield receiver and therefore someone who is especially likely to reach top speed?

This is true, but there are two reasons why we should still bet on it:

1. Bout doesn’t get as many chances; He needs the ball in his hands to record the fastest speed qualifying for this category. His reception prop heading in this Super Bowl is 2.5 – shaded downwards – and this is a feature in the model.

2. We are not betting on any final outcome here. The air yard above is a multi-way market where we focus on the extremes. But this is measuring Boute’s average result, and despite his increase in speed, Boute’s average result top speed is very low.

mac hollins Fastest ball carry speed less than 19.5 mph (-180)

The same logic applies to Hollins as it does to Boutte, except that Hollins doesn’t have the same vertical threat as Boutte.

Ramondre Stevenson Fastest ball carry speed over 16.5 mph (-125)

Finally, an over! Although Stevenson isn’t known for his separation ability, what he brings to the table is a ton of (predictable) opportunities. In addition to the 3.5 reception prop line, Stevenson’s rushing attempt line is set at 14.5. He just needs to be successful in one of those games to get us a win here.

Stevenson has exceeded that limit in 12 of 17 games this season, and he hasn’t always had this high of a (expected) workload.

George Holani To record the most YAC on a single reception (25-1)

Unlike the highest air yards prop, this category includes wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs as possible candidates to win it. And although no one player is particularly likely to win – I make Jackson Smith-Njigba Favorite at only 14.5% chance – Holani appears to be a value at this price. with Zach Charbonnet Outside, Holani will find some work. And last week he ran a route on 35% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks and recorded three receptions. This is enough to give him a fighting chance in this category.