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matt bowen
multiple authors
Betting on the Super Bowl is challenging, even if you follow the league regularly. I understood. Examining personnel, offensive trends and coverage or pressure schemes that could impact the final numbers, there’s a lot to consider – and it all matters.
However, there is an easier path here when we focus solely on the quarterback in this matchup. new England Patriots cubby drake may Is an MVP candidate. as it is Seattle Seahawks‘ Sam Darnold. Both are former first-rounders, one thriving in just his second season, the other a veteran playing the best football of his career with his fifth team in eight seasons.
So, let’s break down the quarterbacks starting with their respective skills and offensive systems, and make your best bets for both in Super Bowl LX.
Comment: Super Bowl Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
And is subject to change.
drake may
An accurate thrower who places the ball with precise placement, Mayes completed a league-best 72.0% of his passes during the regular season in Josh McDaniels’ system. With schematic concepts that open up spaces in the middle of the field, as well as catch-and-run targets, Mays can play in rhythm, using his high-level pocket mobility to reset his throwing window when under pressure. And given his dual-threat qualities, Maye produces carries designed to create conflict for defenses on scramble attempts, having posted 450 rushing yards this season and another 141 so far in the playoffs.
Best Bets for May
Over 19.5 completions (-108)
The Seahawks play a heavy Cover 2 defense, playing a league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. That shell coverage limits vertical routes, but it also allows the quarterback to take available throws underneath. Mays is averaging 20.8 completions this season, and may be forced to make a higher volume of throws if New England falls behind in the second half.
Over 39.5 rushing yards (-114)
Mays rushed for 65 yards against Denver in the AFC Championship Game and has topped the 40-yard mark in three of his last four games. He plays with really good ball carrier vision when he breaks tackles, and I believe he will need to make some difference-making plays as a runner to win key moments against this Seattle defense.
Any Time TD (+320)
Let’s take a shot here, given the juice at +320. Mays rushed for four touchdowns in the regular season, and he added another score in the AFC title game on a designed carry (QB draw). McDaniels can scheme for his quarterback in the red zone area lower down the field. (Mae is ranked No. 12 on Mike Clay’s list of players most likely to reach the end zone. Read full story Here.)
Sam Darnold
Darnold fits easily into coordinator Clint Kubiak’s offense, a system that mirrors both the run and pass games on wide zone action. This allows Darnold to play on schedule at a higher rate by using defined reads to find spaces on the second and third level, and he has a specific target at wide receiver. Jackson Smith-Njigba. Plus, with Darnold’s mobility, he can get the edge on boot concepts, and Kubiak will also set up his quarterback to make vertical shots.
Darnold completed 67.7% of his throws in the regular season (sixth best in the league) and topped the 4,000-yard passing mark. While Darnold still makes some questionable decisions with the ball late, Kubiak could work to keep him in rhythm against New England.
Best bets for Darnold
Longest completion over 35.5 yards (-115)
Darnold had two completions of 40 or more yards in the NFC Championship Game and 17 completions of at least 36 yards this season (including playoffs). As I said above, Kubiak will make those vertical throws. Take your shots at Smith-Njigba and Rasheed Shaheed Here.
Over 2.5 rushing attempts (+106)
Darnold had only 35 rushing attempts in the regular season (2.1 per game). However, can we get rid of a scramble from Darnold, as well as a pair of kneel-downs at the end or half of the game? Remember, those knees count as rush attempts. And I’m leading Seattle to victory. Let’s make this bet.
Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-122)
Darnold threw multiple touchdown passes in eight regular season games, and he dropped three to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. I like this bet because Kubiak has the ability to script concepts in the high red zone, and Smith-Njigba can create his own separation when the Patriots play man coverage.
Another bonus bet…
Mays/Darnold combined for 450+ pass yards (-119)
Yep, we’re looking at two very good defenses in this matchup. But that number seems low, so let’s consider it now before we get closer to game day. This season, Mayes averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, while Darnold checked in at 238.1.
