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Kevin Pelton
a month out from nba trade deadline On February 5, the NBA saw its first trade. atlanta hawks business star point guard trey young till washington wizards For CJ McCallum And corey kispertSources told ESPN’s Shams Charania on Wednesday.
The Hawks’ decision to move on from the four-time All-Star comes in the midst of his eighth season in Atlanta, as they are choosing to build around their young core instead. jalen johnson, Nichelle Alexander-Walker, dyson daniels, Onyeka Okongwu And zachery rischar,
Now that the Hawks and Wizards have officially begun the trade season, we’ll be breaking down all sides of the NBA’s major deals and breaking down the impact it has on all the teams and players involved.
atlanta hawks to get:
Yes CJ McCallum
F corey kispert
washington wizards to get:
Yes trey young
Grade for Atlanta: B
Less than five years ago, the Hawks reached the 2021 conference finals due to the star-making performances of Young, who averaged 28.8 ppg and 9.5 apg in the playoffs at the age of 22. It looked like it was the beginning of the race for Atlanta, which had just one key player over the age of 27. Instead, the Young-era Hawks had already peaked.
Atlanta has yet to return after early playoff exits in 2022 and 2023. The Hawks started this season with high expectations after adding Nichelle Alexander-Walker And kristaps porzingisBut Atlanta went 2-8 in 10 games played by Young this season, leading to the franchise-altering deal.
The Hawks playing better defense with Young on the bench is certainly nothing new. This has been the situation throughout his career. According to Cleaning the Glass dataFiltering out garbage time, 2022-23 was the only season in which the Hawks did not allow at least 2 points more per 100 possessions with Young on the court than on the bench.
Historically, this has been balanced by the huge boost Young has provided to the Atlanta offense. Reversing that statistic, 2023–24 was the only season in which Atalanta did not score at least five More points per 100 possessions offensively with Young on the court. In fact, despite the emergence of this season, it has not changed at all jalen johnson As an All-Star. The Hawks are scoring 9.2 more points per 100 possessions with Young, which is in the 95th percentile leaguewide.
The issue is two-fold: Atlanta is defending better with Young on the bench, and much worse with him on the court.
The latter factor is probably random noise. Based on GeniusIQ’s Quantized Shot Probability Measurement (QSP), which measures expected effective field goal percentage (EFG%) given location and type of shot, distance to nearby defenders, and player ability, Hawks opponents get a slightly better shot when Young plays. Atlanta’s QSP on defense has increased from 54% without Young, which would rank 12th in the league, to 56.6% with him. He would be in 29th place, ahead of only New Orleans Pelicans,
Still, the actual shooting differential is more than three times larger without Young. Hawks opponents shot 63% eFG% with Young on the court and only 54% with him on the bench. The difference in shot quality is consistent with Young’s distinct defensive impact and shotmaking is likely a fluke.
The big factor moving forward is that Atlanta has found a way to survive without Young. The Hawks’ minus-0.4 net rating this season is their best when Young sits at any point in his career. And although that kind of break-even play isn’t enough to avoid the play-in, remember that it comes with zero contributions from Young’s roster spot. Bringing in McCallum to replace him would help the Hawks become more competitive for the rest of the season.
As long as Johnson is on the court, Atlanta’s offense is still around league average. This occurs when the Hawks play neither Johnson nor Young, causing their offensive scoring to drop to 107.8 points per 100 possessions, which is in the seventh percentile in the entire league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Starting guard Alexander-Walker and dyson daniels Supply ample playmaking in concert with Johnson as a point guard to keep Atlanta’s offense running. But without a third capable ballhandler in the backcourt, the Hawks’ second units have struggled badly. McCullum should pick up those groups.
In particular, Atlanta will benefit from McCollum’s ability to create his own shot. According to GeniusIQ, he has shot an impressive 51.5% on half-court shots that are neither an assist nor a putback. Onyeka Okongwu He is the only player on the Hawks above 46% eFG% on at least 50 such attempts (50.5%), and his shot volume is almost as high as McCollum.
There could be a role for Kispert as well, though his skill set overlaps with the Atlanta reserves Luke KennardKispert is a more capable defender and is 26 years old, He is under contract until 2028–29, while Kennard is on a one-year contract,
Looking ahead, this trade gives Atlanta the ability to reshape its roster. The Hawks no longer have any players making more than $31 million at any point during their contracts. They can re-sign or extend McCollum (and potentially Porzingis, depending on his health) and have enough flexibility to add to the roster this summer without the threat of the luxury tax.
Long term, Atlanta is betting on Johnson’s development — a good bet for his All-Star debut — and picks in the draft to supply the shot creation the team needs. The Hawks have better first-round picks this year milwaukee bucks And thank you to the New Orleans Pelicans for their trade on 2025 draft night.
Only Indiana Pacers The Pelicans have a worse record than them, and the Bucks would also be in the lottery if the season ended today. Projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index give Atlanta the No. 1 pick via that trade in 15% of simulations.
If the Hawks can get another star via the draft, they have assembled enough quality role players around them with an emphasis on defense to build a better deal than Young. It offers hope for a new era in Atlanta.
Of course, the Hawks were hoping they could get some pick value in exchange for Young. That Atlanta was willing to make this deal without signing shows how tough the trade market is for max-level players who aren’t inner-circle stars. Given that reality, the Hawks not including the selection to incentivize Young’s 2026-27 player option isn’t such a bad thing.
Grade for Washington: B
Since hiring Michael Winger and Will Dawkins to lead their front office in 2023, the Wizards have been one of the NBA’s most patient teams, accumulating young talent without a clear path to competing for a playoff spot. Trading for Young is an improvement that signals Washington is moving into a new phase of its rebuild.
It would be interesting to know how much of a role the Wizards’ recent success played into that decision. Washington has gone 9-10 since starting the season 1-15, including five wins in the last seven games. This may have suggested to Wizards management that simply playing the season and collecting another lottery pick was no longer as certain as they gave their pick credit for. new York Knicks If it falls out of the top eight.
More broadly, Washington may be at the point where it is supporting the development of its young talent — especially for starters. bilal coulibaly, kishawn george And Alex SarrAll of them are 22 or younger – fittingly with the capable veterans. We have seen how this has accelerated progress Houston Rockets And detroit pistons In recent seasons.
I’m not sure Young is a natural fit for that role. He’s an excellent passer who led the NBA with 11.6 apg last season, but that came in the context of Young dominating the ball in a way the Houston and Detroit veterans didn’t.
According to GeniusIQ tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, Young’s 5.7 minutes of possession time this season is more than McCollum (4.5) in fewer minutes per game. He has possessed the ball about 41% of the time on offense for the Hawks, compared to about 29% of the time with McCollum for the Wizards. Fred VanVleetPoint guard Houston added at the same stage, he had about 35% of the time of possession during his first season with the Rockets.
Given Koulibaly, George and Sarr will likely remain primarily in off-ball roles, which could work if they are okay handling the ball less. Young will be a more dangerous pick-and-roll playmaker than Washington since prime John Wall. The Wizards rank 25th in points per chance on pick-and-rolls this season. Young ranked 12th in points per chance among ballhandlers who received at least 1,000 screens in 2024-25.
Young’s fit with the second-year guard is more intriguing bub carringtonWho has played both on and off the ball in his NBA career. Adding Young could give Carrington more of a boost at shooting guard, where Washington already has a rookie lottery pick trey johnson,
More than anything else, this is probably a valuable play for Wizards. Despite his defensive limitations, Young is still a four-time All-Star because of the way he led Atlanta offensively. Young picking up his $49 million player option for 2026-27 — perhaps in the context of an extension beyond next season — wouldn’t be an issue for a Washington team that was expecting more than $90 million in cap space, as long as the Wizards retained their draft pick. They will still have cap space to add supporting veterans or take on contracts for draft compensation.
Acquiring Young now gives Washington three months to evaluate how he and the team’s young players fit together before building around them this offseason. If dealing with Young was the centerpiece of Washington’s efforts to move toward competitiveness, I would be concerned. As a starting point in that process, this makes more sense.
