For more than 150 years, Russia ruled the South Caucasus between Europe and Asia, through exploitation, supremacy and a colonial division-and-an-monetary policy. Moscow has been the most recent pressure-point Armenia -backed separatist struggle over KarbakhWhere both Russia promoted conflict and acted as an intermediary.
Now, Armenia and Azerbaijan are installed clear boundaries – and there is a historical opening to help them in the US.
After Russian police, the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan is an independent Torture for death One between two Azerbaijani citizens Greater Crackdown On ethnic Azerbaijony in the industrial city of Yakaterinburg. Azerbaijan officer The murders said “Ethnically motivated,” and they were possibly.
In response, Azerbaijan Arrested Head and managing editors of the Russian State Media Outlet Sputnik accused him of working with Russian intelligence. Baku then Eight more arrested Russian citizens on charges of drug trafficking and cyber crime.
This latest growth since December which is amid tension between two countries, when Moscow, when Moscow is Shot down An Azerbaijony civilian aircraft, 38, died. Azerbaijan President Illhum Aliyev demanded a public apology and compensation, but Moscow initially ignored him. This set is a set in a spiral escalation including closing Russian state media and cultural centers in Azerbaijan and Large scale cyber attack Against Azerbaijani state media.
For many years, a conflict has also been going on in neighboring Armenia. Two Azerbaijanis, Armenia just before the murder A meeting Russian -led collective safety treaty organization, Announcing together It was entering the discussion on defense cooperation with the European Union. Although Jerevan still depends on Russia economically and military, it has taken several steps to diversify relations including Iran, India and others.
Such open disregard with both countries must have been unimaginable five years ago. However, two incidents opened the door to collapse of Russian effects in the South Caucasus: Karbakh’s retail Azerbaijan and by War in Ukraine,
For nearly 30 years, Russia used a struggle to take advantage of the two countries on the Armenia -backed separatist region of Karbakh. Moscow used Similar strategies Using the support of separatism to pressurize all three in Soviet republics of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. But in Karbakh, Russia pressured both Armenia and Azerbaijan together.
After successful Azerbaijoni operations to resume Karbakh in 2020 and 2023, Russia lost its primary leapt. And as Russia was falling down rapidly in Ukraine, it did not have the same ability to affect the country.
To keep Azerbaijan and Armenia in their field of influence, using such a “partition and victory” strategy, Russia created resentment between the two. Now, it can bring both sides together.
Amidst stress, UK -based outlet Middle East Eye Reports The Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinian and Aliyev have planned to meet to discuss a peace agreement in Dubai.
As the situation further develops, America should support both partners without careful stress. The key will be with Russia to contrast himself as a beneficiary who does not seek to threaten its colleagues.
There are two steps that Washington can take to increase its impact in the region that will not increase.
The first is to invest in Pashinian Intersection Initiative, a geopolitical strategy to include Armenia in the middle corridor through infrastructure development, economic integration and peace diplomacy with a geopolitical strategy, Azerbaijan and Turkey. By investing in the project, Washington will further build the middle corridor, which will allow Russia and Iran to allow the transit of Europe to Asian goods, and help Armenia to be less dependent on Moscow.
The second step will be to pursue tripartite defense cooperation with Azerbaijan and Israel, A Proposed strategy By the high-ranking by Israeli MPs and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Such cooperation should be less about stopping Russia (which probably does not desire to attack Azerbaijan) and more about preventing less predetermined Iran. Officers and state media have in Tehran Information war waged Against Baku, alleging participating in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion last month Recruitment of ethnic Azerbaijanis Along with detectives -Israel allows to use your area to strike.
Similarly, partnership with Armenia will come at an important time. Longer as regional supervisors Onnik Krekorian notedArmenia is “close to the bright.” Pashinian has to face internal threats from a Russian -backed church and politicians that he has accused of planning a coup. And Armenian dependence on Russian energy remains an important vulnerability – Armenia imports 83 percent Its gas and 80 percent Its oil from Moscow.
Moscow’s decline opens the door – not for the new hand or a new front, but for a new partnership built on the honor of the sovereignty of the region.
Joseph is the director of Epstein Turan Research Center, a Nonpartison Research Program at the Yorktown Institute, focused on the Turkic and Persian world.
