NBA MVP straw poll: Where 100 league insiders see the race headed

Nearly two months into the NBA season, surprising playoff contenders have emerged, shocking franchise drama has unfolded and a new class of rookies has already made an impact.

However, the top of the race for Most Valuable Player 2025-26 should look quite familiar.

For the sixth consecutive edition of ESPN’s NBA MVP Straw Poll – a survey of 100 media members that mimics the league’s postseason awards voting – the voting resulted in oklahoma city thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander And denver nuggets Center Nikola Jokic Leading the field.

And for the third time in a row, Gilgeous-Alexander (57 first-place votes, 865 total points) holds a clear but slight lead over Jokic (42 first-place votes, 822 total points) and 13 other stars who received at least one vote in the polls conducted Monday and Tuesday.

you can For complete voting details go hereBut first, let’s examine the top five picks – Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Los Angeles Lakers guard luka doncic, detroit pistons guard Cade Cunningham And new York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson — and the biggest questions facing each MVP contender and their teams from now until the postseason.

2025-26 stats: 28.7 pts | 6.4 AST | 3.3 REB
Result: 106 points (appeared on 60 ballot papers)
First place votes: 0

Can the Knicks take advantage of a wide-open East?

Although some pundits may have dismissed the Knicks’ NBA Cup victory this week, New York’s performance in the in-season tournament was its first title in more than 50 years. But while team owner James Dolan pushed back coach Mike Brown’s announcement to hoist the banner on the roof of Madison Square Garden, the Knicks hope their Cup experience will provide a similar springboard to success. oklahoma city thunder There was joy last year, when their runner-up finish helped clinch the city’s first NBA championship. (During the NBA Cup’s three years, no team has won the in-season tournament and the NBA title in the same season.)

“I think it’s good that we got this win,” Brunson said after Tuesday’s win in Las Vegas. San Antonio Spurs“I think the way we won it is special too,”

After New York’s victory, the focus was on the play of reserves such as the second-year guard tyler kolekCenter Michelle Robinson and protector jordan clarkson — Brunson praised them all in the postgame press conference after being named tournament MVP. The flash of depth reflects Brown’s approach after replacing Tom Thibodeau in the offseason.

But make no mistake: If New York achieves its championship aspirations in June, Brunson will be the one leading them there. And as he finished in the top five in straw poll voting for the first time, his first-year coach continued to push to include Brunson in MVP conversations.

“When you guys start talking about MVP candidates, [I hope] His name is one of the first ones out of your mouth,” Brown said after the Knicks won the Cup title. “Because at this level, to get it done while winning, that’s what MVP means in my opinion.”

2025-26 stats: 27.2 pts | 9.2 AST | 6.2 REB
Result: 271 points (appeared on 91 ballot papers)
First place votes: 0

Is Detroit really in first place?

As Detroit advanced to a playoff berth for the first time since 2019, Cunningham finished seventh in the league’s official 2024–25 MVP voting. But as this season’s Pistons have reached an East-leading 21-6 record – second-best in the NBA behind the Thunder – Cunningham has received deserved praise for leading the franchise behind career-best individual production.

Cunningham is just outside the league’s top 10 in scoring, but is second in assists and seventh in total double-doubles, doing all this on a roster that doesn’t have a sure bet for another All-Star – center. Jalen Duren The leader there is — with young talents like auser thompson And Ron Holland II Still growing in his game.

For a Pistons franchise that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2008, getting out of the first round and reaching the NBA Finals is no ordinary path. But there’s no doubt the Pistons are ahead of schedule. And Cunningham, since coach JB Bickerstaff has been sidelined in the 2024 offseason, looks every bit the type of player who can lead his team to a deep playoff run.

2025-26 stats: 35.2 pts | 9.1 AST | 8.8 REB
Result: 432 points (appeared on 95 ballot papers)
First place votes: 1

Can the Lakers be good enough defensively?

Doncic’s uncanny ability to create offense for himself and others has led his teams to huge successes. This also includes this year’s Lakers team, which ranks third in the Western Conference despite the league’s 20th-ranked defense.

Do the Lakers finish the regular season in that upper tier – where the Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Houston Rockets Currently residing – may depend on Doncic and the Lakers to become a more cohesive unit on defense. One irony of Dallas trading Doncic was that the Mavericks had assembled a roster that suited his talent And His shortcomings: A backcourt co-star (kyrie irvingColorful 3-and-D Feathers (pj washington, derrick jones jrAnd nazi marshal) and rim-protecting, rim-running bigs who take advantage of Doncic’s distinctive pick-and-roll vision.

This year’s Lakers, as coach JJ Redick has repeatedly said, are unbalanced. wing jared vanderbilt On a roster built around Doncic’s offensive-minded trio, he may actually be an above-average defensive player, Austin Reeves And soon to be 41 years old Lebron James,

To his credit, Doncic has entered his first full season in LA in form and has performed brilliantly – MVP straw poll voters have taken notice. But it will take even longer for Doncic and the Lakers to reach the Finals.

2025-26 stats: 29.6 pts | 12.3 REB | 10.9 AST
Result: 822 points (appeared on 100 ballot papers)
First place votes: 42

Will Jokic’s supporting cast be good enough?

Jokic’s historical numbers have stagnated and so has his place in the top tier of MVP voting; He has finished first or second in five consecutive seasons. This season, Jokic leads the league in rebounds and assists and is fifth in points, shooting 61.2% overall, 42.6% from 3-point range and 84.0% from the free throw line. No player has more triple-doubles (13) or double-doubles (24) than Jokic.

The question in Denver over the past several years — and even during the franchise’s run to the 2023 NBA title — has been whether the Nuggets can generate enough production when their All-Star center is off the court. Heading into Thursday’s games, Denver was minus 1.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench, a vast improvement from last season’s declining numbers.

• 2024-25: Minus 9.3 points per 100 possessions

• 2023-24: Minus 8.6 points per 100 possessions

• 2022-23: Minus 10.4 points per 100 possessions

• 2021-22: Minus 7.9 points per 100 possessions

This year’s improvement can be partly attributed to jamal mareIt was a career-best debut performance, boosting the guard’s chances of his first All-Star selection. Murray, who is off to a very slow start, is averaging career highs in points (25.2), assists (6.6), field goal percentage (50.1) and 3-point percentage (45.6).

2025-26 stats: 32.4 pts | 6.4 AST | 4.7 REB
Result: 865 points (appeared on 100 ballot papers)
First place votes: 57

Can the Thunder really win 74 games?

Oklahoma City suffered another disappointing finish in the NBA Cup, but there is no better team looking to return to the league.

“I think an average team would probably be like, ‘Oh, it’s the Cup, whatever, we lost one,'” the Thunder All-NBA guard jalen williams Said after Saturday’s semi-final defeat to Spurs.

“We can look at it as a way to get better and understand that we played against a playoff team that beat us.”

Of course, the Thunder are no average team. OKC still has a record-setting net rating of plus-16.9 points per 100 possessions — more than three points better than the 13.4 rating of 72-win 1995-96. Chicago Bulls Install as standard.

Oklahoma City, which owns the NBA’s worst defensive rating over the past six seasons, is lapping up most of the field, so much so that the distance between the Thunder and the second-place Pistons is as large as the gap to Detroit. Brooklyn Nets In the 25th. The defending champions have done all this with Jalen Williams missing the first several weeks of the season due to offseason wrist surgery, and with other key players in and out of the lineup.

The steadying force has been Gilgeous-Alexander, with his 32.4 points in just 33.0 minutes per game, helping solidify the 2025 MVP and the Thunder’s title defense. If successful, OKC would end a seven-year run without a repeat winner.

But while the Thunder never say things too loudly, they aren’t shying away from comparisons to the last two teams to eclipse 70 wins — they were the 1995-96 Bulls and the 2015-16 Bulls. Golden State WarriorsWho went ahead 73-9.

“If we get better than where we are right now, it should take care of that,” Gilgeous-Alexander said after Saturday’s cup defeat.

“Goals are meaningless to me [when you’re] Trying to reach them when they are far away.

“If we have nights like we had tonight, we won’t even get close to that. So I think trying to focus on being better than what we’ve accomplished over this 25-game period will help us, and all the goals and things will fall into place.”

With our early snapshot of the MVP race predicting another extremely narrow margin between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, the Thunder’s race to 70 wins (and beyond) could be the deciding factor.

Full NBA MVP Straw Poll Results