Can the Spurs turn their NBA Cup run into a Finals berth?

When Indiana Pacers Received huge support in a game of 2025 NBA Championship oklahoma city thunder Distance before losing game 7 Tyrese Haliburton Suffering an Achilles rupture, the team’s first run to the title game was derailed.

Eighteen months earlier, the Pacers had reached the inaugural NBA Cup finals, which was temporarily branded as an in-season tournament. And although Indiana lost that final too Los Angeles LakersThe lessons learned in Las Vegas proved useful for a Pacers team that had not won a playoff series since 2014.

Now, San Antonio Spurs They find themselves in a similar position, having won four consecutive must-win games since the group stage to reach Tuesday’s final. new York Knicksfirst three of them without star Victor WembanyamaDespite San Antonio losing in the finals 124-113The Pacers’ NBA Cup roadmap is something the Spurs can follow.

And even though they didn’t reach the title match, they’re still advancing orlando magic They’re certainly also hoping that their NBA Cup run can act as a similar springboard to the postseason.

Orlando has gone even longer without advancing in the playoffs than Indiana, the last time it did so was when Dwight Howard led the Magic to the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals. The Spurs, meanwhile, are on track to end the league’s second-longest playoff drought, having last appeared in the first round in 2019.

With all this in mind, let’s look at how San Antonio or Orlando can follow in Indiana’s footsteps and use this NBA Cup experience as a stepping stone to the postseason.

taste of high stakes

Indiana had a recent NBA champion on its 2023 roster bruce brownsigned off from denver nuggets After helping them clinch the title a few days ago. But of the 14 players playing for the Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup Finals, 10 had never appeared in a playoff game.

That group included Haliburton, whose teams had never finished 10 games below .500 during the previous three seasons. That group will also include a backcourt partner Andrew Nembhard Wasn’t he sidelined with injury?

Comparatively, the Magic and Spurs have more playoff experience on their current rosters, but not by much. Notably, despite consistent appearances, the Magic have the second fewest combined playoff games played on their current roster of any team in the NBA, with 139. Toronto RaptorsThose who lost in the NBA Cup quarterfinals have fewer than 106 points.)

All of Orlando’s key players have playoff experience, but none have advanced beyond the second round. Every other NBA team has at least one player with multi-round experience. This also includes San Antonio, whose 225 playoff games are concentrated primarily among the Giants. Harrison Barnes (71), Kelly Olynyk (48), luke cornet (43) and bismac biyombo (40). De’Aaron FoxWith a chain that helped Sacramento Kings End his own drought, being the only other rotation player with playoff experience.

In the Spurs’ victorious locker room after the first of two must-win games to advance from West Group C, the most competitive NBA Cup group, Fox looked like a seasoned veteran with dynamic young teammates. dylan harperThe 2025 No, 2 pick is 19 years old, and along with recent Rookie of the Year winners Vembanyama and stephen castle (both 21), will benefit the most from playing against far more experienced teams in the NBA Cup knockout stages.

As the 2023 NBA Cup run introduced casual fans to Haliburton – just months away from his All-Star debut and long before Haliburton had earned a reputation as a clutch shotmaker – the final two rounds of the NBA Cup were an important showcase for Wambayama. As was expected coming in as the No. 1 pick, these Cup games were among the most meaningful NBA games he has played to date. He responded with 22 points in 21 minutes in Saturday’s upset win over the defending champion Thunder after returning from a calf strain, during which San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City by 21 points, giving the Thunder only their second loss of the season.

game

Wemby comes to life with impressive buckets in the third

Victor Wembanyama drills a big 3 followed by a putback finish.

This is where the Spurs and Magic differ from the eventual champion Knicks. No, New York did not add an NBA Cup to the championship banner it recently won with the same major stars. However, the Knicks have won a playoff series in each of the last three seasons, culminating in a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, solidifying them as the East favorite this season.

New York’s roster actually offers the most playoff experience in terms of games played and minutes of any team to reach Las Vegas, ahead of the Thunder. So the NBA Cup Finals was more old than new territory for the Knicks.

Pacers’ proof of concept

The biggest difference between Indiana and this year’s young NBA Cup contenders is that, at the time, the Pacers’ roster was a work in progress. The combination of advancing to the NBA Cup Finals and being exposed there in a 123–109 loss by the Lakers certainly played into Indiana’s decision to trade for the veteran forward. pascal siakam Next month. Siakam proved to be the final key to the Pacers core that reached the 2024 Conference Finals before falling to the NBA Finals last season.

The Magic hope they’ve made their own version of the Siakam move by adding a guard Desmond Bain In June. of ban Anticipated slow start It was a distant memory with Orlando as he knocked down six 3-pointers to lead a magical comeback in the NBA Cup quarterfinals against Miami, and finished with 37 points.

For San Antonio, the trade to add a veteran to their young core came after the Spurs acquired Fox before the 2025 trade deadline. After initially struggling to fit into a Spurs team with veteran Chris Paul starting at point guard, Fox has looked in line with what San Antonio has come to expect from the 10-year-old guard since returning from a hamstring strain in November. He averaged 24 points on the best true shooting percentage (.608) of his NBA career.

Fox was a steady force in the NBA Cup quarterfinals as the Spurs halted the Lakers’ comeback. Fox’s 3-pointer with 3:35 left capped an 11-0 Lakers run and pushed San Antonio’s lead back into double digits.

There is variation in their current ability to make spurs. Second Make a big trade if they want to improve their roster before the postseason. Despite giving up multiple first-round picks to get Fox, San Antonio still has at least one first-round pick in every future draft, as well as swaps in 2026 (with Atlanta), 2028 (Boston), 2030 (Dallas and Minnesota) and 2031 (Sacramento).

We included Spurs as a possible destination if either giannis antetokounmpo Or anthony davis Traded in mid-season,

San Antonio’s NBA Cup could potentially be affected Antonym Pacers’ impact – It shows the Spurs don’t need another big addition to compete in the playoffs as soon as this spring, now that they’ve surrounded Wambayama with so much talent.

Conference finals booster?

In the wake of San Antonio’s win on Saturday, the odds are still in Orlando’s favor when it comes to matching Indiana’s feat of not winning a playoff series in several years to reaching the conference finals with an NBA Cup Knockout win in between. Magic entered the season High expectations after Ben trade And despite so many injuries in the past, it has the advantage of a clear path to the final round of the playoffs.

Even though San Antonio has the better record so far – and they have played 12 games without Wembanyama – Projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) Orlando has moved up the standings by finishing just one game behind on average. This is partly due to the schedule. BPI ranks the Spurs’ remaining schedule as the fifth-toughest in the NBA, while ranking the Magic’s remaining games as the easiest.

Part of this is a product of BPI continuing to present the West as a strong conference. The top six toughest schedules belong to teams from the West, while teams from the East have the two easiest schedules left. Additionally, Saturday’s semifinals completed Orlando’s season series against the Knicks, and the Magic have played only two of their 13 scheduled games against the bottom five teams in the BPI. (San Antonio has played four.)

The conference gap should also benefit the Magic in terms of seeding. Orlando has claimed a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round more than two-thirds of the time, compared to slightly better than half the simulations for the Spurs (47%). There’s still a real chance for the Magic to close the 5.5-game gap detroit pistons And end with the best record of the past. Given Oklahoma City’s current historical pace, this is probably off the table for San Antonio.

Add up those factors, and BPI gives Orlando a better chance of reaching the conference finals this season. This occurs in 31% of simulations, with the Spurs reaching the West Final in only 9.5% of cases.

Whether it happens this season or takes longer, San Antonio playoff success will likely come as long as Wembanyama remains healthy. When it’s for the Spurs or Magic, like it was for the Pacers before them, an NBA Cup run will be an important part of the story.