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jesse rogers
The market for free agent hitters got a shock at the winter meetings last week when the 32-year-old designated hitter kyle schwarber Five-year $150 million contract agreed with philadelphia philliesAnd then came the 31-year-old first baseman pete alonso get one Five-year, $155 million deal From baltimore orioles One day later.
Schwarber and Alonso are ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, in ESPN’s rankings. Top 50 Free Agents Heading into the winter, and both contracts reflect the value of top one-dimensional players this offseason as teams invested in them for one main reason: their bats.
Neither slugger is much of a threat on base – although Schwarber stole a career-high 10 bases last year. Defensively, Schwarber rarely plays in the outfield, and Alonso was only 18th among first basemen in above average defensive runs saved and outs last season. Nevertheless, both players received long-term deals that will pay them $30 million annually until they turn 30.
Since he signed, there has been a momentary lull at the top of the free agent market for hitters – partly because some agents are rethinking their strategies and wondering what these deals mean for some of the more developed players available this winter.
Specifically four players – infielders bo bichetthird baseman alex bregmanFirst baseman/outfielder cody bellinger and outfielder kyle tucker – Should be the beneficiary of how last week’s deals reset the market.
“If I’m in the room it’s the first thing I’m doing,” an agent not associated with any of the above players said via text. “Reminding everyone how old those guys are and what my player can do that they can’t do.”
Four hitters could also find great success this winter as next year’s free agent hitting class is not expected to be strong. ‘cub’ Seiya SuzukiBlue Jays’ george springer And the Orioles’ taylor ward Likely to be the best in the group.
With that in mind, let’s take a fresh look at the remaining Big Four using fWAR (FanGraphs version of WAR) as the central metric to compare all positions. (Schwarber compiled a 4.9 fWAR last season, while Alonso came in at 3.6). We asked a front office executive with no interest in signing any players for help in this exercise, and incorporated updated projections from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel based on how the offseason has played out so far.
bo bichet
FA Ranking: number 7
Bichette will turn 28 on Opening Day, making him the youngest of this group, but he’s limited to 139 games in 2025 after missing time with a knee injury in September. He finished the season with 3.8 fWAR and missed the first two rounds of the postseason before returning for the World Series.
Bichette is one of the best contact hitters in the game, but he is also valuable because he plays the middle of the diamond even if he doesn’t finish his career as a shortstop.
“His Only There are knock-on injuries,” the executive said.
Bichette has not played more than 135 games in a season since 2022, but still finished 16th in American League MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. The most recent comp for his free agency could be san francisco giants shortstop Willie AdamsWho signed a seven-year, $182 million contract last season.
Adams produced 4.8 fWAR for milwaukee brewers in 2024 and played 161 games that season, helping close that gap in fWAR before becoming a free agent. Only once in his career (when he played just 81 games in 2024) has Bichette posted an OPS+ below 121, while Adams hasn’t surpassed an OPS+ of 119 since 2021.
Bichette is also a few years younger than Adams, making him more eligible age-wise carlos correaWho signed a six-year, $200 million contract with Minnesota in 2022 after a 4.6 fWAR season.
McDaniel’s original projection: Five years, $130 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $150 million (assuming a long-term deal vs. a short-term deal with an opt-out)
alex bregman
FA Ranking: number 4
Limited by injury in 2025, Bregman appeared in only 114 games, but has played at least 155 games five times in his career. He posted at least a 4.0 WAR in each of the last three seasons, before his fWAR dropped to 3.5 last season. He is just a year away from winning a Gold Glove at third base. Bregman has been on base more than 35% of the time every year in the latter half of his career, while striking out more than 90 times just once in 2017.
But being the oldest guy in the group (he’ll turn 32 in March), he won’t be in line for a decade-long deal with whichever team signs him.
“His vision at the plate is underrated,” the executive said. “Look at his walks-to-strikeouts total. It should be good.”
Seven-year deal, $175 million marcus semien Entering your age-31 season is a good starting point when looking for comps. Bregman may not get as much length as Semien, but Bregman’s annual salary could easily surpass the $25 million per year that Semien receives.
McDaniel’s original projection: Five years, $160 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $170 million (or six years to reduce AAV)
cody bellinger
FA Ranking: No. 3
Bellinger is the only player of the four to play a full season in 2025, appearing in 152 games for the Yankees, his highest total since 2018. After a 4.9 fWAR season, he is ready to cash in.
Our executive said, “Perfect for them in New York.” “Everyone thought he was going to hit a lot of home runs out there and he did.”
Bellinger’s ability to play first base as well as the outfield – and at a high level wherever he plays – adds value to his resume that Schwarber, Alonso and others lack.
Brandon NimmoThe eight-year, $162 million contract is a good starting point for Bellinger as an outfielder. Nimmo signed before the 2023 season after producing a 5.5 fWAR season.
McDaniel’s original projection: Six years, $165 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Six years, $180 million
kyle tucker
FA Ranking: number 1
Widely viewed as the top player in this winter’s class, Tucker has also dealt with injuries over the past two seasons, but he was considered weak (a fractured shin in 2024 and a fractured thumb in 2024).
He compiled a 4.5 fWAR despite suffering a thumb injury last season and a 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games last year. Had he been healthy, his 2024 performance would have been roughly equivalent to a 10-war season.
The executive said, “It goes without saying that when he’s healthy, Tucker is one of the best hitters in the league.” “Paired him with other good hitters in Houston, and he’s even better.”
However, they are different types of players compared to Tucker heading into free agency juan sotoLast year was not a disgrace due to the hitters’ ability to take walks and not strike out. Tucker committed to swinging at better pitches a few years ago, and the results have come: His 1.00 walk-to-strikeout percentage over the past two seasons is in line with Soto — and right behind. louis erez For the best in MLB.
That ability, coupled with his slug, puts him in a rare class like Soto and perhaps mookie bets Before signing his 12-year, $365 million deal with the Dodgers. Despite a season-ending calf injury, Tucker also stole 25 bases last year, reminiscent of Soto, who stole 38 bases in 2025.
McDaniel’s original projection: 11 years, $418 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: 11 years, $418 million (with possible deferment)
