week 13 2025 nfl season Following an exciting four games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday – all upsets. As for the remaining 12 games on the slate, we’ve provided you with everything you need to know.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three statistical trends that could be important this weekend. Then fantasy writer Eric Moody looks at five players who have been included under 50% espn league By Saturday and can be started in the jam. What follows are NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchups worth watching and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bets for Week 13. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Can the Steelers stick to their screen game against the Bills? Is there any fantasy upside for the Jaguars? trevor lawrenceCan the Titans and Browns both pull off upsets, Will the offense be limited in the Texans-Colts matchup, And are the 49ers worried about the quarterback, brock purdyWe investigate it thoroughly.
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state trends , imaginary sleeper
potential surprise , key matching
bet of the week , QB question
Walder: Three key statistical trends that could determine the winners of Week 13
How much of the difference between the Giants and Patriots is driven by their schedules?
The Giants (2-10) and Patriots (10-2) aren’t even in the same stratosphere in the standings. And the advanced numbers are fond of the Patriots, who have the No. 1 passing offense in terms of dropbacks, per EPA. but espn’s football power index Still believes there is very little difference between the play of these two teams monday Because of the strength of the schedule.
No team has played an easier schedule than the Patriots… and no team has played a tougher schedule than the Giants. And on snaps with the rookie quarterback jackson dart On the field, the team’s EPA per game is 0.07, roughly equal to the 10th most efficient Seahawks.
Can the Bills stop the Steelers’ screen game?
The Steelers love screens, running them at the second highest rate in the league (6%). And it’s been an efficient part of their offense, with the team averaging 0.10 EPA per screen – better than their average EPA per dropback.
On a per-play basis, there is no defense better than Buffalo at stopping screen plays. Its opponents are averaging a minus-0.52 EPA per screen play and have a 21% success rate on them, the lowest rate of any defense. Granted, the sample against the Bills is small (19 plays), but that doesn’t stop Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith from relying on one of his favorite levers. sunday,
Will 49ers left tackle trent williams Be able to stop the Browns edge rusher miles garrett,
We’re getting a Hall of Fame matchup in the trenches sundayWho has the upper hand? At each of his peaks, it must have been difficult to say, But right now, Garrett is the obvious answer,
The Cleveland edge rusher is on his way to winning Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s already threatening the single-season sack record (22.5) with 18.0. Meanwhile, Williams’ pass protection numbers have dipped slightly this season. After being first in tackles in pass block win rate in 2023 and second in pass block win rate in 2024, his 2025 PBWR is 20th. The Browns will need Garrett to have success against Williams to have a chance to upset the 49ers.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up – and start doing this week
trevor lawrencecubby, jacksonville jaguars (30.2% roasted)
Lawrence has provided steady low-end QB1 production since Week 1, averaging 18.0 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t hit 300 passing yards yet this season, but that could change against A Titans defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. For managers who need a QB, Lawrence is in a sweet spot here.
jayden higginswr, houston texans (28.4% roasted)
Higgins has quietly become a reliable fantasy option, emerging as Houston’s clear No. 2 receiver with at least seven targets in four of his last five games. He scored three touchdowns during that span and is averaging 12.8 fantasy points since Week 10. Higgins will now be the starting quarterback CJ Stroud Back against A Colts defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
devin nealRB, New Orleans Saints (27.6% roasted)
Neal is positioned to take over the Saints’ backfield at running back Alvin Kamara he hurt his knee In week 12. Neal clocked a season-high 12 touches against the falcons And has increased his scrimmage yards in five consecutive games. New Orleans is likely to give the newcomer the full workload to see what he has, and what he has A dolphin prepares a rescue This has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
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Is Devin Neal a priority fantasy add for Week 13?
Daniel Diop explains why Devin Neal isn’t a priority for fantasy rosters, but is still a good backup RB in Week 13.
chimere dikewr, tennessee titans (16.0% roasted)
Dike has emerged as Tennessee’s top receiving option calvin ridley out for the season And Alick Ayomanor Is struggling with hamstring injury. He led the team with seven targets in Week 12, and converted them into 21.4 fantasy points (thanks in part to a punt return touchdown). Dyke has at least 16 fantasy points in three of his last five games despite the Titans’ struggling passing game. With strong target volume and additional special teams tackles, he is a viable flex against Jacksonville, especially in deeper formations.
Brenton StrangeTE, Jacksonville Jaguars (15.6% rostered)
returned from strange one hip injury that lasted for a month in Week 12 and immediately reclaimed his role as the Jaguars’ top pass catcher, leading Jacksonville with 93 yards. against the cardinalsHe has at least 59 yards passing in three of his six games this season, and he is vital to the Jaguars’ offense as a strong blocker, Strange is a low-end TE1 against the Titans,
Solak: Don’t be surprised if…
titans harassed the jaguar
rookie quarterback cam ward Has played the two best matches of his career in the last two weeks. And they faced stiff competition in the Texans and Seahawks. Now, he gets a Jaguars defense that can apply pressure but really struggles to out a mobile quarterback like him.
As long as Ward avoids turnovers, the Titans offense should score points. On the other side of the ball, the defensive tackle pair jeffrey simmons And t’vondre sweat Needs to slow down the Jaguars running game and get the ball into Lawrence’s hands.
the Browns upset the 49ers
On a rainy and windy day in Cleveland, the typical Browns defense will take precedence. This game could come down to who runs the football better, and the San Francisco running backs Christian McCaffrey Getting handoffs at a typical clip, he’s not breaking tackles or making explosive runs like he once did. In adverse circumstances, brock purdy There may also be a possibility of a turnover or two. This game will be decided by field position and special teams, with a big play late.
quarterback aaron rodgers And the Steelers’ offense looks elite again
Defensively, the Bills are built to make you dunk and dunk the football against their soft zone coverages — but that’s the preferred playing style for Rodgers, who is ready to return from a fracture in left wristThe Bills also have tackling issues, and every Steelers pass catcher is a tackle-breaking threat, And finally, Pittsburgh can run the ball with heavy personnel, which has been Buffalo’s kryptonite for years, josh allen Had better score points, as Rodgers’ Steelers certainly would have done.
Bowen: Key matchups to watch
texas defensive end Will Anderson Jr.vs, Colts offensive tackles Braden Smith
Look for Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to plan his fronts to create a one-on-one pass-rush matchup for Anderson in this key AFC South matchup. to matchAnderson was tireless at Texans week 12 win On the Bills, Allen recorded 2.5 sacks and five pressures. This brings Anderson’s season totals to 10.5 sacks and 36 pressures, while his pass rush win rate is 24% (third highest in the NFL).
Smith has allowed six sacks this season, and his pass block win rate of 90.2% ranks 33rd among offensive tackles. Smith will be important in keeping the pocket clean for the quarterback. Daniel JonesBecause when under pressure his off-target rate climbs to 25%.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 13
less than 44.5 points houston texans But indianapolis colts
Indy’s offense has a floor, and it keeps the game slow. Jones has turned into a play-action reliant passer, while the Texans’ defense is built to eliminate him. It ranked third in completion rate allowed, second in yards allowed per pass attempt and second in opponent touchdown rate.
Stroud is back For Houston’s offense, but Indy’s pass coverage has improved with the cornerbacks. Sauce Gardner and this return Of Charvarius WardBoth defenses will put pressure on early downs, while offenses will stall in the red zone, allowing punts,
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Should fantasy managers be worried about Jonathan Taylor?
Field Yates and Mike Clay discuss their level of hypothetical concern for Jonathan Taylor.
NFL Nation: QB Question
What’s the latest? CJ Stroud‘s return, and how will the Texans look without him?
Stroud Will return against the colts sundayThis will be his first start in three games, so expect some rust in a big matchup with divisional implications, Fortunately for the Texans, they went 3–0 in the games Stroud missed, keeping them in the playoff race, The credit for this goes to their defence, which scored an average of 12,5 points in the last two matches, And don’t forget the two game-winning drives by the quarterback Davis Mills Over a period of three games. , DJ Bien-Aime, Texas Reporter
Are the 49ers worried? brock purdyTwo starts back from injury?
Short answer: not really. The Niners and Purdy were pleased with his performance. against arizona In his return, and although he threw three interceptions in the first half against carolinaCoach Kyle Shanahan said he had no issues with the decisions and that Purdy was a little late on the throw. For his part, Purdy said he was not “driving” the ball as well as he could. This week, he highlighted this after watching film, and said he needs to establish his feet better and throw with more anticipation to eliminate some of those costly turnovers.
“It’s just reps and playing football again and getting back into it,” Purdy said. “But there are some good plays that I made as well. I can’t just say because I threw three picks in half my timing and it’s all over. It’s give or take with all of them.” , Nick Wagner, 49ers reporter
Could the Raiders consider other options under center for the final stretch?
Coach Pete Carroll did something unusual by parting ways with two coordinators (Chip Kelly and Tom McMahon) in a 16-day period. So at this stage of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Raiders considered other options at quarterback. geno smith The obstacles continue to pile up.
For now, Smith’s job is safe. It’s worth seeing how Smith and the offense look under interim playcaller Greg Olson. Perhaps this move could get the 35-year-old quarterback on track during the final six games. Either way, the Raiders will need to seriously consider the situation in the offseason. Smith has regressed, and Las Vegas could be in position to select one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft. , Ryan McFadden, Raiders reporter
