Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Patriots beat the Jets on Thursday night. To get ready for the rest of the action, our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 11. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
How can the Rams slow down the Seahawks’ offense? Which two Buccaneers skill players have fantasy upside this week? Could Bears quarterback Caleb Williams dominate in Minnesota? Will the Raiders’ offense stay quiet against the Cowboys on “Monday Night Football“? And what’s the latest on whether Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play next season?
We dig into all that, starting with an exciting NFC West showdown.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 11 winners
How will the Rams respond to the Seahawks’ heavy offensive personnel groupings?
The Seahawks enter Week 11 with the second-most efficient passing offense in terms of EPA per play (0.25), and one of the ways it succeeds is by working out of heavier personnel groupings. That gets opponents to match with a base defense before Seattle passes the ball. But the sneaky truth is that the Seahawks pass so much because they’re not actually a good running team at all (minus-0.06 EPA per play, 25th best). The Rams might simply dare them to run.
When the Seahawks have deployed 12 or 21 personnel this season, opponents have matched that with base 81% of the time, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But when the Rams’ defense has faced 12 or 21 personnel, it has run base only 55% of the time — and it has even used dime 21% of the time. That is a part of the reason the Rams have a minus-5% pass rate over expectation against them, the third-most run-heavy split for any defense.
The Seahawks could be forced into a tough choice: run the ball against those run-friendly looks (unideal, given their weakness in that area) or pass against more difficult passing personnel (which also could reduce efficiency).
Can the Bengals stop the Steelers’ YAC-heavy attack?
Sixty-five percent of the Steelers’ passing yards this season have come after the catch, the highest percentage in the league. For Pittsburgh’s YAC-heavy approach — which gets those extra yards from the likes of DK Metcalf, to the running backs, to the tight ends — the Bengals might be their easiest opponent this season. That’s because the Bengals are allowing a league-worst 1.7 YAC over expectation per reception, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Things could get ugly for Cincinnati in Pittsburgh.
Can the Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. vault himself in the Defensive Player of the Year race with a big game against the Titans?
I think he could! Anderson has been pretty exceptional this season, with a 25% pass rush win rate that ranks second at edge. But his seven sacks puts him four behind the Browns’ Myles Garrett and the Giants’ Brian Burns, the league leaders at 11.
I’m not saying he can make up the entire gap in one game, but racking up two or three sacks Sunday is within reason. That’s because Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward is sporting a league-high 11.1% sack rate. Combine one of the best pass rushers in the league with a sack-prone quarterback, and the numbers could be huge.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (43.3% rostered)
Tucker has an elite matchup against a Cowboys secondary that has been eviscerated all season. Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. Tucker is now the Raiders’ No. 1 wideout after Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars. Las Vegas’ passing offense will run through tight end Brock Bowers, but Tucker should see plenty of looks.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.3% rostered)
Otton is an excellent option this week despite facing a Bills defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s receiver room has been decimated by injuries, pushing Otton into a larger role with 26 targets over his past three games. He has also posted at least four receptions and 50 receiving yards in four of his past five outings. Otton could be the top playmaker for Baker Mayfield against Buffalo.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (39.9% rostered)
Rodgers is a viable starter because the matchup does all the heavy lifting. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers hasn’t been sharp lately, scoring just 18.5 total fantasy points over his past two games with a dismal 5.5 yards per attempt. However, the Bengals’ defense has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt and the most touchdown passes this season. Rodgers is well positioned for a bounce-back game.
Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (38.4% rostered)
Flacco has had a career renaissance since arriving in Cincinnati, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game in four starts. He has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every Bengals appearance and has attempted at least 45 passes in three of four games. This week, he faces a Steelers defense that is allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL (269.4). And, of course, Flacco is well-positioned for success with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as his top targets.
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Is Joe Burrow worth a fantasy waiver wire pickup?
Stephania Bell explains why Joe Burrow could be a valuable addition to your fantasy roster when he returns from injury.
Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (35.1% rostered)
Johnson is a strong start thanks to his target volume, touchdown production and matchup. He has seen 20 targets and scored three touchdowns over his past three games. The Bills’ defense has been eviscerated over the past month, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy loses in his return
It’s not that quarterback Mac Jones is better than Purdy, who is gearing up to return from a right toe injury — it’s that the 49ers’ defense is so much worse than it was earlier. Since Week 7, when linebacker Fred Warner went down for the season with an ankle injury three weeks after edge rusher Nick Bosa tore an ACL, the 49ers’ defense is 30th in success rate, 28th in points per drive and 27th in EPA per drive. The Cardinals’ loss to the Seahawks was traumatic, but they should still be able to move the ball against San Francisco even without wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis).
The Seahawks dominate the Rams — or vice versa
Both 7-2 teams could be 9-0 (go back and look at those losses — all close, and in some cases very silly). But the Rams haven’t played a defense near Seattle’s caliber since Week 1 (only 14 points scored against the Texans), and the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been forced to play from behind much. Both of these teams are excellent, and they should provide a great game. But there are holes for each that might get exposed early and often by their elite opponent.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams goes off
The Bears nearly missed on several potential big plays last week against the Giants in snowy Chicago. Now, Chicago takes its offense — which leads the league in explosive plays — to the dome in Minnesota, where the Vikings are allowing the league’s highest completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield. Williams has been teetering on the precipice of a true breakout performance for weeks now, and a divisional win against a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores would be the ideal spot.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Lions quarterback Jared Goff vs. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio
The Eagles went zone-heavy versus Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love in their Monday night win, playing zone coverage on 69.2% of dropbacks. Plus, the Eagles were in two-high coverage at a 66.7% rate. Will we see the same versus Goff and the Lions passing game Sunday night?
Potentially, as Fangio can use his boundary safety to cut or rob on inside breaking routes. And that’s key when matching up to Goff, who has a completion rate of 78.6% on throws inside the numbers. The Eagles need answers to take away the crossers, overs and dig routes that Goff will toss to wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, among others.
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Kurt Warner loves Dan Campbell taking over playcalling for the Lions
Kurt Warner tells Rich Eisen why he likes how Dan Campbell has handled taking over playcalling duties for the Lions’ offense.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 11
UNDER 23.5 points for Las Vegas Raiders team total vs. Dallas Cowboys
Las Vegas hasn’t earned a total this high. The Raiders’ offense is on its last gasping breath with a broken line, an injured Geno Smith, a bottom-three scoring total, a passing attack that collapses under pressure and a run game that creates just 0.66 yards before contact. The Cowboys add volatility with their defensive play, but their front can still generate pressure against the Raiders’ hobbled offensive line. Nothing about the Raiders’ structure suggests efficiency, explosiveness or sustained drives. To get to 24 points, they would need an outlier — and this offense has rarely produced those.
NFL Nation: Quarterback questions
How is Matthew Stafford putting together his best season at age 37? What else could be unlocked with this Rams offense?
The Rams’ offense — especially Stafford — has been healthy. Despite missing most of training camp with a back injury, Stafford has not missed a practice this season. And while the offensive line and wide receiver Puka Nacua have dealt with some injuries, it’s nothing compared to the time Nacua or offensive linemen missed last season. Stafford, who is in his 17th season, has been sacked just 14 times this year.
As for the Rams’ offense as a whole, coach Sean McVay said this offseason that the Rams couldn’t use injuries as an excuse for inconsistency and that he wanted to build a more versatile offense. After years of primarily relying on 11 personnel (three receivers) under McVay, Los Angeles currently leads the league in 13 personnel (three tight ends). — Sarah Barshop, Rams reporter
Where do things stand on Aaron Rodgers playing another season in Pittsburgh (or anywhere)?
Answering a question about breaking more records after beating the Vikings earlier this season, Rodgers said he’s in the “twilight of my career.”
“I used to say five, six, seven years ago I was on the back nine,” Rodgers said. “I’m teeing off on 18 right now.”
Prior to Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, Rodgers had played steady, solid football. While the Steelers’ passing attack lacked consistent deep balls, Rodgers was effective with short, quick throws and extended plays with more mobility than he has had in recent years. Against the Chargers, however, Rodgers looked every bit of his near 42-year-old age, making it seem even less realistic that he could extend his stay in Pittsburgh.
Rodgers signed a one-year deal with the Steelers in the offseason, and the team is operating as if a one-year deal means that he’ll be in Pittsburgh for only a single season. The Steelers declined to make any moves to give up significant draft capital for a wide receiver at the trade deadline in part because the future of the quarterback position is undecided. And by keeping the bulk of their draft capital, the Steelers are better equipped to maneuver in the upcoming draft (which will be held in Pittsburgh) for a quarterback. — Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporter
How has Joe Burrow looked since returning to practice this week … and is it realistic to believe he will return by Thanksgiving?
It’s hard to gauge since Burrow was limited in his first week back. Cincinnati wants to make sure it eases Burrow back into team activity at the start of his 21-day window. His biggest focus at this stage of the process is making sure he can run and cut without any issues. Until then, Joe Flacco will remain the starter. But don’t downplay Burrow’s tenacity to get back.
“The way he approaches the game makes him crazy,” Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase said. “How much he loves the game makes him crazy. That’s how much passion he has behind it, and nothing’s wrong with that. He just wants to win and you need people around you like that.” — Ben Baby, Bengals reporter
How concerned are the Packers about Jordan Love‘s performance the past two weeks?
That’s operating under the premise that they’re concerned at all, and coach Matt LaFleur sounds the opposite of concerned. Until the past two games, Love had some of the best numbers in the league. Through seven games, he had completed 70.9% of his passes with 13 touchdown throws and only two interceptions. In the past two games — low-scoring losses to the Panthers (16-13) and Eagles (10-7) — Love’s completion rate was 63% with no touchdowns and one interception.
“I know that we’ve hit a rough spell in regards to scoring these last two weeks, but I think he’s done an outstanding job,” LaFleur said. “We got to make sure that he stays confident. I think that is paramount for every player, and I think he is confident and we’re just looking forward to the opportunity to again, have a great week of practice, putting that prep in and then we ultimately got to go do it on game day.” — Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter
