Today’s election results in California, Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York City and elsewhere could impact congressional and gubernatorial races across the country in 2026 and will show the impact of President Donald Trump’s current unpopularity.
Candidates for governor and other statewide offices and legislatures will be on the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey. California voters will decide whether to approve the Democratic ballot measure on congressional redistricting.
New York City voters elect a mayor, citywide officeholders, and City Council members. Elections will also be held in large municipalities such as Detroit, Cleveland and Miami.
If voters unhappy with Trump’s disappointing performance in office lead Democrats to victory in these contests, the party will improve its chances of winning the majority.435 US House seats,35 senate seatsAnd36 GovernorshipOn the nationwide ballot next year.
If Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City, Trump and Republican candidates across the country will likely continue to portray him as a dangerous radical. They will try to make him the face of the Democratic Party and falsely label all Democrats as socialists and communists.
But there are a large number of voters who are not adopting the old political labels. They want results. And as a representative of the new generation of leaders, Mamdani will be under immense pressure to deliver on his austerity agenda.
Trump may be more of a liability than an asset to Republicans on the ballot. The latest RealClearPolitics average of national opinion polls shows Only about 44 percent of adults nationwide approve of Trump’s job performance. Where the most important elections are taking place, Republican presidents are faring worse.
World Population Review examines polling on Trump’s job approval rating in each state and found It was 42 percent in Virginia, 40 percent in New Jersey and 33 percent in California. Although there has been no recent polling on his approval rating in heavily Democratic New York City, Trump won. only 30 percent Vote there in the 2024 presidential election.
The most important contest today in terms of its impact on next year’s House races will be in California. proposal 50 Asks voters if they want to approve new congressional district boundaries for elections in 2026, 2028, and 2030. After that, an independent commission will conduct non-partisan redistricting every 10 years, taking into account population changes as measured by the US Census.
1 October referendum The Public Policy Institute of California found that 56 percent of likely voters in the state said they would vote for Proposition 50. The measure could enable Democrats to pick up five House seats to retaliate. partisan redistricting Adopted this year by Republicans in Texas, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and possibly other Republican-controlled states to come.
Redistricting typically occurs at the beginning of each decade, but Trump prompted Republican-controlled states to redraw districts early to benefit Republicans. The California legislature responded correctly to that power grab by approving new district maps to benefit Democrats.
In the Virginia gubernatorial race, surveys have included former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger an important lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsom Earle-Sears. New Jersey is held by Democratic Representative Mickey Sherrill a narrow lead ahead of Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli in the gubernatorial contest.
If liberals Spanberger and Sherrill are victorious, it would be a sign that Democrats have some momentum and voter enthusiasm to win a House majority, make gains in the Senate and win a large number of governorships next year with candidates who attract both traditional Democrat voters and swing voters who are not aligned with either party.
Spanberger and Sherrill’s victories may also prompt some congressional Republicans and non-incumbent GOP candidates to abandon their abusive total subservience to Trump. Now it is time to return to the system of checks and balances.
The victory of Trump supporters Earl-Sears and Ciattarelli could encourage Republicans in 2026 to move closer to the president and loyally support his frequently changing policies, even if those policies harm their constituents, as they often do. So far, the MAGA movement has kept Trump’s base unified.
One thing is certain: the election will give Virginia its first female governor. And if Earl-Sears wins, she will join Maryland Democratic Governor Wes Moore as one of two Black governors in office.first black womanTo serve as governor of any state in American history.
All pre-poll surveys will soon become irrelevant once the actual votes are counted. Polls have often been proven wrong, as was the case when pollsters were stunned to find that Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race and won both the Electoral College and the popular vote in the 2024 presidential cycle.
Once today’s results are known, Campaign 2025 will end and the far more consequential Campaign 2026 will begin. to be continued.
donna brazilis a political strategist, ABC News contributor, and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. She is the author of“Hacks: Inside the Break-ins and Breakdowns that Put Donald Trump in the White House.”
