Several high-profile Democrats, including former President Obama, are vying to drum up support for New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mickey Sherrill. Signs the race is getting tighter More than expected.
Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by one point in public polling, with a recent survey from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill showing the two are essentially tied.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic that she will prevail on Tuesday, despite the third consecutive successful run for the governor’s mansion by any political party since 1961. But in a sign they’re leaving nothing to chance, Obama And Senator Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is set to stump for Sherrill this weekend.
Democratic strategist Henry De Koninck said, “If the race comes down to party priority, it’s a structure that should favor the Democrats.”
De Koninck said Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 860,000 over Republicans. He said the party out of power usually gets a voting advantage immediately after a presidential election, which would also benefit Democrats.
The race to replace term-limited New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D) is in its final stages as Sherrill and Ciattarelli work to prepare their respective bases for Tuesday’s gubernatorial election.
Recent public polling has shown Sherrill leading Ciattarelli on various levels. The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released Thursday found the New Jersey congresswoman barely ahead of Ciattarelli, 49 percent to 48 percent, which is within the margin of error.
The race was also close in a Suffolk University poll this week, with Sherrill holding a 4-point lead over her Republican nominee, while polls released by Quinnipiac University and Fox News had her ahead by between 7 and 9 points.
The polling average of Decision Desk headquarters surveys found Sherrill at 50 percent support and Ciattarelli at 45 percent.
There are some early signs that are giving Democrats hope next week. For one thing, Sherrill has a consistent lead over Ciattarelli in public polling, with some public polls even showing Sherrill getting at least half the votes.
Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said Democrats are also feeling good about the “early voting firewall” they are building.
According to Michael Prusser, director of data science at DDHQ, Democrats had a lead of about 221,000 raw votes on mail-in ballots as of Thursday. Meanwhile, Prusser said Democrats had a lead of just less than 2 percent in early in-person voting, or about 7,300 votes.
Prusser said in an online post that he expects Democrats to have a lead of 240,000 mail-in votes by Election Day, while Republicans will have a lead of about 4.5 percent in in-person voting by Tuesday.
“The question is whether Republicans are doing enough this time to completely break it or partially break it,” said Rasmussen, who previously served as press secretary for former Gov. Jim McGreevey (D).
He said, “I think even among the most nervous Democrats, there’s no doubt that Republicans need a very big Election Day victory to be able to reach a 250- or 275,000 vote-margin for the Democrats at this point.”
Democrats also see advantages in several national issues that have become the subject of political discussion in the race, including the Trump administration’s decision to halt funding for the Hudson River Tunnel Project, known colloquially as the Gateway; Preemptive raids conducted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); And the Republicans’ mega policy bill cuts social safety net programs.
But his campaign says the messaging around Trump runs parallel to some of the most pressing issues of the election, affordability and the economy.
“Whether it be [the] door [tunnel] Or tariffs or cuts to Medicaid, the interplay between affordability and Trump is important, because all Trump is doing is raising costs in New Jersey,” said Sherrill campaign spokesman Sean Higgins.
“This isn’t just about ‘being against Trump.’ This is about standing up against Trump’s attacks on the economy and creating a different path forward in New Jersey, and that’s what Mikey’s message is about,” he said.
But even Sherrill supporters admit it’s a tight race, and the party has brought out some of its most prominent surrogates, like Obama, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gallego, to stump for her. He has also campaigned for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger (D), who is up for election on Tuesday.
Ciattarelli has also seen some prominent conservatives campaign for him, including former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor of Ohio next year, and right-wing commentator Jack Posobiec.
Republicans believe the momentum is in their favor. Republican strategist Janet Hoffman noted recent endorsements from the Latino clergy group Confraternidad Latina de Pastores and the Lakewood Vad, an influential Orthodox Jewish group that endorsed Murphy in 2021.
Hoffman also doubted that the anti-Trump message would resonate with voters in the Garden State.
He said, “She’s really running a federal campaign focused on Trump. But you know, anyone in New Jersey will tell you that property taxes, power bills — these are all state-specific issues.”
New Jersey State Senator Michael Testa (R), co-chair of the 2020 New Jersey Trump campaign and Ciattarelli surrogate, said the former GOP Assembly member “has a vision for the state of New Jersey” and argued that the Democrats’ lead in mail-in voting at this point has paled in comparison to the party’s performance in 2021.
“Let’s face it, we know Republicans generally like to vote on Election Day,” Testa said. “This race will depend on how many Republicans and Independents come out to vote for Jack Ciattarelli on Election Day.”
Passaic Mayor Hector Lora, who represents the majority Hispanic city that Trump won in November, noted Ciattarelli’s visible momentum in the race.
“He’s working hard, he’s everywhere. He’s willing to listen. He’s open and receptive to all groups,” said Mayer, who is supporting Sherrill.
Still, Lora said she believes the state is “tilting” toward the New Jersey congresswoman.
“I really think New Jersey is not getting it right, but they want us to get back to the center,” the mayor said.
Democrats, for their part, are making it clear that they cannot take Tuesday’s election lightly.
Democratic strategist Mo Butler said, “I always thought that was a tenet of the case, that this was going to be a tight race that was going to be won on the margins.”
“I think that’s what these surveys have shown,” he said.
