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Kevin Pelton
Friday is not just Halloween. It also marks the inauguration day of 2025 emirates nba cup As the league’s in-season tournament begins its third iteration.
So far, the Cup’s single-elimination bracket has offered tricks for the favorites and treats for the underdogs. Although the eventual NBA champion oklahoma city thunder Reached last year’s final in Las Vegas, neither of the first two winners (the). Los Angeles Lakers and in 2023 milwaukee bucks in 2024) won more than one game the following season, showing how much different nba cup sprint The playoff is from Marathon.
All this is to say: Predicting the NBA Cup is a scary proposition. Still, let us see which teams are in the best position with the help of predictions ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI)Which keeps track of the health of the team and the ability of the player.
For all six NBA Cup groups, we’ve used BPI to identify the favorites to advance, as well as other contenders with an eye on how the wild-card spots in each conference may be affected. Let’s see who has the best chance to advance in Vegas in December.
Visit a group:
East Group A (ATL, CLE, IND, TOR, THA)
East Group B (BKN, BOS, DET, ORL, PHI)
East Group C (CHA, CHI, NYK, MIA, MIL)
West Group A (MIN, OKC, PHX, SAC, UTAH)
West Group B (dal, no, mem, lac, red)
West Group C (DEN, GSW, HOU, POR, SAS)
Note: All possibilities in this story are as of Wednesday morning.
East Group A
Group Favorite: cleveland cavaliers (55%)
Contender: atlanta hawks (24%)
Stay hidden: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), washington wizards (3%)
This top-heavy group is the most likely to fill the East’s wild-card spot. This is partly because the teams have the advantage of facing the Wizards, who are last in BPI, as well as the Pacers, the 2023 runners-up, who Injuries have been very difficult,
Indiana played without eight players due to injuries on Wednesday, including the top four guards on the team’s full-strength roster (Tyrese Haliburton, benedict mathurin, TJ McConnell And Andrew NembhardSome of them should be back for the Pacers’ last three NBA Cup games, but they will be missing for Friday’s opener against Atlanta.
The Cavaliers are dealing with injuries to their own guards darius garland And max strusbut far from one Still a 3-2 start. With the Hawks’ slow start, Cleveland is a clear favorite in this group. Atlanta hosting Toronto on Nov. 7 could be a key matchup to determine wild-card contention.
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East Group B
Group Favorite: philadelphia 76ers (34%)
Contender: orlando magic (25%), detroit pistons (20%)
Stay hidden: boston celtics (19%), Brooklyn Nets (2%)
The league attempts to balance NBA Cup groups by placing teams together based on the previous season’s record. When teams’ fortunes change dramatically, things can go awry, as has happened after Boston jayson tatumthat’s right achilles Breakage,
Boston’s slump has left Group B wide open. Comeback wins over Charlotte and Washington have blunted the Sixers’ 4-0 start somewhat, but they have the advantage of hosting Orlando in a potentially important Cup game. Magic upgraded their roster by adding Desmond Bain But there is still the familiar difficulty of creating a half-court offense. According to GeniusIQ, his 1.04 points per possession out of transition ranks 29th in the NBA.
there may be one opening here for detroitWhich hosts Orlando and Philadelphia. The Pistons started the NBA Cup 3-0 last year, but were defeated by the Bucks in the group finals, eliminating them from the wild-card competition.
East Group C
Group Favorite: new York Knicks (38%)
Contender: milwaukee bucks (22%, Miami Heat (22%)
Stay hidden: Chicago Bulls (11%), charlotte hornets (7%)
This year’s NBA Cup will test the perfect record of Milwaukee assistant coach Darwin Ham, who won the inaugural trophy as head coach of the Lakers before joining the Bucks for last year’s victory. The Bucks reached Las Vegas both years, but that was with damian lillard , Now back with the Trail Blazers — who averaged 27.3 points in the tournament last season.
The Knicks are comfortable favorites in the deep East group, despite Tuesday’s head-to-head loss, due to Milwaukee’s weak roster. New York also has the advantage of hosting Milwaukee on the final night of group play. However, according to BPI, each game has extra importance for the Knicks because they are the Eastern group with the least chance of producing a wild-card team.
Unlike Groups A and B, Group C sees no pushovers with the Hornets defeating the bottom teams in those groups (Wizards and… Brooklyn Nets) during the first week of the season. Meanwhile, the other 2025 Lottery team in this group (Chicago) has started this season 4-0 and the surging Heat have the best point differential in the East,
West Group A
Group Favorite: oklahoma city thunder (66%)
Contender: minnesota timberwolves (17%)
Stay hidden: Sacramento Kings (8%), utah jazz (5%), phoenix sun (4%)
would be a It’s a surprise if the reigning NBA champion Finished anywhere but top of Group A. Not only do the Thunder have the league’s best BPI rating, but this group generally looks weak Anthony Edwards He is expected to miss at least Minnesota’s opening game due to a hamstring strain suffered on the opening weekend of the season.
The schedule works in the Timberwolves’ favor as their matchup against Oklahoma City is not scheduled until Thanksgiving Eve. Minnesota’s first two NBA Cup games are at home, and Edwards could be back by the time they hit the road on Nov. 21, making a 3-0 Finals win against the Thunder a realistic goal.
The other three teams in this group have a combined one win against teams other than each other this season: Utah’s shocking upset on opening night LA Clippers,
West Group B
Group Favorite: LA Clippers (30%)
Contender: Los Angeles Lakers (25%), memphis grizzlies (24%)
Stay hidden: dallas mavericks (15%), New Orleans Pelicans (7%)
However, the path to the quarterfinals from Group B goes through L.A. lakers injuries There may be something to be said about that. they will probably be without luka doncic And Lebron James for their group opener on Friday at Memphis, however, James could be back in time for playing time on Nov. 14 and will have time to adjust before the showdown against the Clippers on Nov. 25. (BPI is projecting James’ return between those two games.)
The Clippers came into the season with the best performance of any team in this group, and an upset on opening night in Salt Lake City looks like an outside shot. Because their matchup with the Lakers is at Crypto.com Arena, the Clippers will only play one NBA Cup game outside of L.A.
If the Grizzlies can beat the Lakers on Friday, they will likely be in contention to win the group until their finals against the Clippers in LA. The Mavericks and Pelicans have not yet performed well enough to show that they are serious contenders.
West Group C
Group Favorite: denver nuggets (27%)
Contender: Houston Rockets (26%), Golden State Warriors (21%), San Antonio Spurs (19%)
Stay hidden: portland trail blazers (7%)
We saved the best group for last. Loaded West Group C includes two of the three West teams with at least a win total of more than 50 entering ESPN BET (Denver and Houston, along with Oklahoma City are the others), plus a Warriors team that my model had higher and the undefeated Spurs.
This is the only group in which no team has at least a 30% chance of winning, and no one is even close. Last-place Portland looks competitive after beating Golden State at home early in the season, which could make it difficult for the runner-up in this group to muster a point difference strong enough to win the wild card.
If both teams are still in it, the Rockets will visit the Warriors on Thanksgiving Eve – Kevin DurantThe first trip to the Chase Center with Houston – could be the key game of the group game. Group C cannot be decided until San Antonio visits the Nuggets in the final game two nights later.
