Predicting five breakout NBA players for the 2025-26 season

The NBA is back – and our annual Breakout column is back, too.

The objective here, as always, is to identify which players are ready to make the leap, whether it’s to full-on stardom or simply a major career year. Last year, we successfully predicted the Cleveland Cavaliers evan mobley and oklahoma city thunders jalen williams There will be an explosion at the scene. Both made their first All-Star Game and significantly lifted their teams, helping the franchise win its first championship.

This process depends not only on talent, but more importantly on opportunity and circumstances. Every player on this list should enter the field in a friendlier state than last year for a number of reasons, whether it be injuries, rotation openings or the team’s value on internal continuity.

In no particular order, here are five players you should keep an eye on this season as they climb the ranks of NBA fame.

An argument can be made that Thompson played brilliantly last season and made the All-Defensive team while providing some surprising flashes on the offensive end. He was also selected for the 2025 Rising Stars Game. Now, the team is ready for him to take on a greater share of playmaking responsibility.

with the addition of Kevin Durant and departure of jalen green For Phoenix, this is a huge opportunity for Thompson to take on a more commanding role for the Rockets. even before Fred VanVleet‘S Unfortunate ACL tear this offseasonThompson was expected to take on more backcourt responsibility. Now, he’s stepping into that role as a sophomore reed shepard is also filling.

If these early games are any indication, the Rockets will likely deploy a lot of supersized lineups without any true point guards, using Durant and. alperen sengun To help carry the burden. But few players pressure the paint with their speed and explosiveness like Thompson, and he will be asked to open things up for Houston’s penetration attack. Thompson won’t be the only playmaker, but an increase in minutes and usage could propel him into All-Star consideration at the age of 22 (though that group is significantly harder to crack in the West).

As his responsibilities increase, there will be some adjustment time and, of course, Thompson will have to shoot better for it all to come together. A reliable jumper has been the missing component of his game, and although his willingness to take shots has improved, he only made 68% of his free throws and 27% from 3 last season. Of course, it helped that Thompson shot 64% at the rim and can get up quickly while playing off cuts. But 31.5% on all jump shots is something defenses will stick with until proven otherwise.

Houston will need to find the right lineup combination to maximize on-court spacing for Thompson to operate. Without Van Vleet, expect some experimentation. Still, the massive increase in offensive opportunity, coupled with the top-flight defensive impact, should propel Thompson to proper stardom sooner rather than later.

Pritchard is another player who you could argue already had a breakout season last year, as he had career-best performances across the board and won the Sixth Man award. He has proven to be one of the league’s top 3-point shooters and a relatively mistake-free player over the past five seasons, becoming increasingly essential to Boston and dramatically outperforming his draft position. There may be more in store.

The logic here is not complicated. Absence of jayson tatumThat, along with the Achilles tear, creates a significant scoring void that the Celtics will look to fill by committee to remain competitive. Boston accepted defeat and took several cap-centric steps junior holiday And kristaps porzingisAmong others, to avoid the second apron, and repositioned himself moving forward. This makes it a kind of semi-gap year, with lower expectations but lots of opportunities to share.

Boston still has a strong perimeter group, and jaylen brown And derrick white There will be two main leaders. afernee simmons And his big expiring contract may be more valuable as a trade option than part of the team’s long-term vision, so dialing up Pritchard more often and letting him increase his output is in the Celtics’ best interest given how well he’s developed. And he may not need as many on-ball reps to get more shot opportunities. He should be the beneficiary of a faster and more egalitarian offensive approach in Boston.

Bottom line: The Celtics will need the best version of Pritchard to maximize their new-look group. There’s a very real possibility he’ll repeat Sixth Man honors and improve on those numbers as Boston jockeys for a bottom-tier playoff seed.

Much of the Pistons’ revival last season revolved around Cade CunninghamDevelopment on the court. Duren’s on-court progress was somewhat of a footnote, but the 21-year-old big man started all 78 of his games last season, shooting a career-best 69.2% from the field (the NBA’s second-highest clip). jarrett allen) and averaged a double-double for the second consecutive season. Duren’s strength and physicality has always given him a clear advantage since his prospect days, but he has turned it into consistent production and answered age-old questions about his motor.

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Jalen Duren hits one-handed blast for Detroit

Cade Cunningham passes the ball to Jalen Duren for a Detroit alley-oop vs. Chicago.

It’s hard to finish games more efficiently than Duren did last year, and he’s an excellent rebounder, but there could be another gear here if he can utilize his offensive talents. Although not the focal point of the offense, Duren is a plus passer for his position, and the Pistons played through him a fair amount last season. He had at least five assists in 15 games, showcasing his ability to open things up by working through the middle of the floor. The Pistons have deployed Duran into a platoon at large Isaiah StewartBut it wouldn’t be surprising to see his minutes exceed 30 points for the first time.

Here is the obvious analog bomb adebayoAnother physically gifted center who more than doubled his assists in his age-22 season (average 5.1) and made the All-Star team that year. Considering the presence of Cunningham and auser thompson (plus jaden ivywho will miss at least the first month of the season Had knee surgery last week), It’s hard to expect that level of playmaking to jump, but anything Duren can give them will be a plus. He should have plenty of opportunities to cause damage playing in a smaller role and continue to build chemistry with Detroit’s guards.

Duren and the Pistons did not agree to an extension this week, setting him up for restricted free agency next summer. Continuing to expand your game should pay off.

Johnson accomplished a remarkable feat last season by becoming admirably efficient as a special option Brooklyn Nets The team that won only 26 games. Already considered one of the top shooters in the league (now at 39.2% from 3 for his career), Johnson also made plays from secondary assignments and displayed a level of offensive versatility that was not always evident in his early tenure. phoenix sunThe versatility of his game bodes well for the 29-year-old’s adjustment to Denver, where he will be making the move. Michael Porter Jr.After The two were traded for each other in the offseason.

Considering the extensive similarities in Johnson and Porter’s skill sets, it’s easy to envision the former lining up cleanly and quickly as a high-impact starter for Denver. He will take up space on the floor and will benefit greatly from playing with him Nikola JokicAdept at giving teammates a clean look, and jamal mareJoe is off to a healthy start to the season. Johnson is somewhat limited defensively and is smaller than Porter, but the fit feels clean, and he’s a better player who is comfortable in the position.

I’m more curious about how Johnson figures to account for Denver’s minutes when Jokic is off the field. Figuring out how to balance the lineup to win those stretches has always been important for the Nuggets. The secondary playmaking that Johnson displayed in Brooklyn, as well as his ability to do it without movement and the threat of his shot, could prove to be a key differentiator from Porter, who has never been the most willing passer. Keeping in mind that the Nuggets are thin at guard – bruce brown Returns to the mix, and unproven Jalen Pickett Denver has a backup point – you can imagine Johnson being significantly more effective in their ball-movement-centric attack. Helping solidify those minutes can make a big difference in the grand scheme.

The Nuggets have become a deeper, more balanced team after their offseason changes, and Jokic’s class promotes someone who can read the game quickly enough to play at his pace. This is the best situation Johnson has stepped into, and after his best personal season — he averaged 18.8 points and shot 47% from the field in Brooklyn last year — he could easily surpass those career bests. He’ll be able to do it in a more meaningful context, as Denver makes another run at the top of the West.

The Pacers then entered the season in a state of uncertainty Tyrese Haliburton‘S Achilles tear and this departure of miles turnerNembhard was assigned as their primary ball handler, before a shoulder injury in Indiana’s first game – an NBA Finals rematch – sidelined him. The exact timeline for his return is unclear, but after playing a key role in Indiana’s Finals run, Nembhard, a second-round pick in 2022, will eventually return with the keys to the offense just like he played before coming to the NBA.

Although the expectations here are realistic — the Pacers can take this season to recalibrate without Haliburton — Indiana will need offense from the rest of the roster in the meantime. expect pascal siakam To get more use and more volume benedict mathurin (who is also struggling with injury) and Aaron NesmithGetting the mix right will be a challenge. But the apparent lack of playmaking without Haliburton points to Nembhard as the main beneficiary. TJ McConnell Staggering off the bench.

Nembhard is a smart playmaker with plus size for a lead guard, and while no one expects him to completely replace one of the NBA’s best passers, an increase in assists and overall usage is expected. Scoring efficiently with a higher workload will be a bigger challenge. Although Nembhard has made progress as an overall scorer – shooting 45.2% off the dribble and 61.8% at the rim last season – he has never been a high-volume shooter by trade. He made just 29% of his 3-point attempts last season, a number that will need to improve to avoid weakening the defense at the point of attack.

Whether Nembhard can maintain his high level of defensive play with an increased offensive workload is another question. This season will be a fascinating stress test for the Pacers’ entire supporting cast. And if Nembhard can use the opportunity to move to another level, there should be long-term benefits if Haliburton returns as well — with Nembhard under contract through 2027-28. Assuming Haliburton is back soon, Nembhard should get plenty of valuable reps and get the job done — though it’s possible the season could turn sour quickly for the already banged-up Pacers.