Wetzel: Why college basketball coaches can watch more football in 2025

The University of Illinois football team will host top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday, which assures a sellout crowd and frenetic campus atmosphere. The weather in Champagne is expected to be perfect – mostly sunny and in the 70s.

“Chamber of Commerce stuff,” said Brad Underwood, the school’s basketball coach.

In years past, Underwood would have set up a massive recruiting weekend, trying to convince every potential high school prospect to give the U of I a best look. After all, the early signing period is just five weeks away.

this year? No official tour, just some local players who will drive themselves.

“I’m just choosing not to do it,” Underwood said. “I’m not wasting time or dollars.”

Welcome to the fall, where the college basketball recruiting season is in semi-hibernation.

The recruitment calendar has changed for a myriad of reasons. The tendency for coaches to prefer experienced players through the transfer portal has taken the heat out of landing high school stars. Meanwhile, top players are hoping for more certainty and expect higher monetary offers in the spring.

But that trend has been exacerbated this year by uncertainty over a proposed NCAA change that would give all athletes five years of eligibility in a five-year period, known as the “5-in-5 rule.” The goal is to eliminate redshirts, arbitrary waiver decisions, and lawsuits over eligibility.

The problem is that it’s not clear whether the rule will pass, let alone when it will be implemented. The NCAA process is extremely slow, and although a source with knowledge of the situation told ESPN it will not happen this academic year, there has been no official statement. In an era of rapid and dramatic change, coaches remain cautious.

If the 5-in-5 rule were to happen, suddenly almost every current college senior would have an extra year of eligibility, which would create a problem for incoming freshmen.

Since coaches don’t know how many players may return, they also don’t know how many new players they may need.

And if they need new players, will they add to the portal roster of experienced 22-year-olds rather than turning to unproven high schoolers? This doesn’t take into account how much revenue share money needs to be allocated and zero opportunities to maintain your roster.

Essentially, the entire game is somewhat of a sham on how to build the roster for the 2026-27 season. Illinois may need significant work. Or it may require almost no one at all (it requires two high school players to commit).

“Nobody knows what’s going to happen or what to expect,” said Underwood, who has led Illinois to five consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.

It extends in the other direction as well. Current players are more cautious because they cannot tell what they are doing, from playing time to available money.

That’s one reason, even as the Nov. 15 early signing period approaches, only 16 of ESPN’s top 50 recruits (and only three of the top 15) have committed to a school.

Paul Biancardi, ESPN’s national director of recruiting, said, “In the past, a high school recruiter would say, ‘This is how I’ll fit on the roster,’ but that’s gone now. You don’t know the roster for next year.” “With kids coming and going on the portal, you don’t know what the roster is going to be.”

Everything has been pushed to the spring, where Underwood expects “complete chaos.”

His frustration isn’t with the proposed rule — he says he supports 5-in-5 as long as it eliminates waivers and legal cases. And Underwood, despite being a coach for 38 years, isn’t complaining about the good old days. He likes this new era the most.

“I’m tired of the coaches complaining,” Underwood said. “I think … [college] Basketball is the best ever. There is a lot of top level talent in the game. I think the game is ready to explode.”

He would just like some clarity on how to plan for the next year.

“We just need to know what it’s going to be,” he said.

If the fifth year eventually comes, many high school prospects could be pushed to the mid-major level. That could also be a strategy. If you’re, say, a top-100 recruit, why sign with a major team to play a limited role when you can go to a mid-major and prove yourself?

“This is an opportunity for the kids,” Underwood said. “Build your brand as a double-digit scorer.”

Basically, no one is sure which path to take.

“It’s really fascinating how it’s changed, how coaches go about it, the money, the transfer portal,” Biancardi said. “Everything is different.”

Not all bad, just different. Underwood says there used to be “hair on fire” this time of year. However, this September, he only went out one day for recruitment. April and May will be crazy, but he’ll have more time to “connect with the people I’m going to try to win over this winter.”

And on an otherwise busy fall recruiting weekend, he might get a chance to go and watch a football game.