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Mike Clay
As you get ready for Fantasy football 2025Be sure to practice a lot with our use Mock draft lobby And keep the track of the mike clay Update estimates All over the season.
Football figures are extremely difficult to predict, but history shows that it is quite easy to introduce touchdown regression for this, as much as you can imagine.
During 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 169 examples, in which a wide receiver or tight end was scored less than five touchdowns on 50-plus aggressive touch before managing at least 50 touch in the next season. Out of those 169, 114 (67.5%) created more touchdowns in the next season.
Focusing on 48 players from the group who scored less than three during the first year, 39 (81.3%) created more touchdowns in the next season. One of the 16 or zero touchdown, 14 (87.5%) found the final area more often next year. Slot wrs Jason avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) Was responsible for two exceptions.
In the last season, 29 WR/TES scored less than five TDs on 50-plus touchs, including notes under three scores. Jake Ferguson (0), Eliza Moore (1), Jayelane vedal (2), Dalton Shults (2), Chig Okonkovo (2), Hunter Henry (2) And Mike gesici (2).
If we run this test on back running then we see similar results. There are 45 examples in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on more than 200 touchs before re -managing 200 touches in the next season. Out of those 45, 36 (or 80.0%), scored more touchdown in the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs that failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year but each scored at least seven times in the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Matthews, Lamar miller, Brian Robinson JuniorThe average second year touchdown was a total of 9.3!
In 2023, six RB fell down to more than seven TDs on over 200 tisses and in 2024 moved to rack 200 Touchs. Of those six, four created more TDS, with exceptions Tony Pollard (4 to 5) and D’andre swift (6 to 6).
In the last season, five RBs were held under seven TDs on 200-plus touch: Rico dovele (5 TD), Pollard (5), Swift (6), Tyrone Tracy (4) And Nazi Harris (4).
If you leave all that, or just get out when scanning on mathematics, the point here is simple: NFL players bounce back – often in a big way – when they post unusually low touchdown numbers and see the same game time in the next season.
In this piece, I will mention the expected touchdown (XTD), which is a figure that weighs every carry/target and converts data into a number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity. Keep another way, how many touchdowns a league-average player would have done, which will be with the same opportunity as a player shown to the player.
The careful exam of each of the 2024 uses of the player below tells us that we should expect an increase in production this season.
Note that this study is limited to receiving regular-season congestion and data.
Tray macbridgeTe, Aerizona cardinal
2024 TDS: 3
2025 Estimated TDS: 6
McBrid 2024 had a poster boy for poor TD fate, with a total of three scores (two receiving, neither came up to 17 weeks) despite being second in target, catch, yard, and zone target (10) and fantasy points. Incredibly, McBrid led all tight ends in the expected TDS (7.9) and although he did not score too much in 2023 (three TDs at 108 goals), we can safely expect a career in 2025.
George PickensWR, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDS: 3
2025 Estimated TDS: 8
Pickens created three TDS in the previous season despite doubling the end zone target (12, compared to 10 during its first two seasons) despite doubling his previous career in the previous season. The final field target is at a total of 12th position (he caught only two of them) despite her three games missing and in the position 40th in the catch. Even in a new crime and with Saeedi Lamb In the mixture, this season picks up the figure to increase its scoring.
Rome OdunjWR, Chicago beer
2024 TDS: 3
2025 Estimated TDS: 7
In the previous season, the 13-plus and zone target was handled, Odunz (who had 13) with only one with less than five TDs. 2024 number 9 overall pick was at one ton as a rogue (eighth among WRS) as a crook, but the uneven QB play limited his skills (nine of the 13 end region’s goals were not catchable and their 37% were ranked second among the WWR). Improvement in second year Kaleb Williams Will go a long way to odunze.
Travis cailsTe, Cenus city chief
2024 TDS: 3
2025 Estimated TDS: 5
Kails were limited to a career-less three touchdowns in the previous season, all came to the targets of their six-end field. It is easy to write a dip as a product of its age, but the cail was still in the top five between the tight loops in Snap, route, targets, catch and yardage. Kellas remains a target of a heavy use in the crime and figures near the Canasus City to find the final area more often in this season.
Jake FergusonTe, Dallas Cowboy
2024 TDS: 0
2025 Estimated TDS: 3
Ferguson makes the unfortunate difference of being the most target (88) among all the players that failed to catch a touchdown pass in the previous season. In 2023, the tight end was limited to the targets of the two end region after increasing the position with 10 (which helped him in five TDs). A healthy. Duck prescott Will help in its rebound opportunities in 2025.
Travis Atian JRRB, Jacksonville jaguar
2024 TDS: 2
2025 Estimated TDS: 4
At a disappointing 2024, Atin was very wrong, and the scoring deficiency was one of them. After scoring 12 TDs (sixth between RBS) and after receiving nine carry inside the 5-yard line in 2023, Etin sparked two scores (both during both weeks 1-2) and five carries within the last season. He can no longer return the primary target line of the team (Tank Bigsbi That role is taken), but he gets enough runs to allow too much scoring.
Jayelane vedalWR, Miami dolphin
2024 TDS: 2
2025 Estimated TDS: 5
After overching with 15 touchdowns (8.9 xTDs) during its first two NFL sessions, the boddle has been given a tough competition by recovery from the last two sessions (six TDS, 6.7 xTDs). Waddle is not only used by the goal of the round line (16 career and zone targets, including two in 15 games in the previous season). The use of 26 -year -old suggests that he will never have a high TD roof, but he can certainly improve on two TDs at 92 goals, especially in a good Miami crime.
Tj hawksonTe, Minnesota Vikings
2024 TDS: 0
2025 Estimated TDS: 4
You read correctly: Hawkanson did not find the final area in any regular game of his 10 regular season in the previous season. Perhaps we should not be very surprised, as Hawkanson has never been a big TD scorer (a career of six in 2020 and 2022), but he certainly saw enough work to allow a handful of scores (2.0 XTD, three end field targets). What is worth it, turnaround can already begin, as he caught the loan postson touchdown of Minnesota.
Hunter HenryTe, new England Patriots
2024 TDS: 2
2025 Estimated TDS: 5
Henry made a good relationship Drake Maya Last season-She ranked top-eight between TES in the target, catch and Yard-but the touchdown was not followed. Henry’s 4.8 XTD and Six & Zone placed both in the top 12 positions, but 25 tight ends scored more TDS. Henry has a history of finding the last area (eight in 2016, nine in 2021, six in 2023), and rarely falls less than its expected total (40 TDs, in 37.4 xtd in career). We can expect a reversal in 2025, especially in the year 2.
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