2026 WNBA predictions: Do Aces, A’ja Wilson have competition?

After a chaotic offseason in which a new collective bargaining agreement was agreed to just 51 days ago, the WNBA season is finally back.

Players, teams and fans haven’t had much time to catch their breath, with a two-team expansion draft, free agency for over 100 players, the 2026 WNBA draft and training camp all held within the past five weeks. But, finally, basketball is back at the forefront of the league, which will celebrate its 30th season this summer.

All 15 teams, including Toronto and Portland, will be in action on opening weekend, with three games (Connecticut at New York, Washington at Toronto, Golden State at Seattle) slated for Friday. In Saturday’s doubleheader on ABC, the Dallas Wings take on the Indiana Fever (1 p.m. ET), followed by a 2025 Finals rematch between reigning champ Las Vegas and Phoenix (3:30 p.m. ET).

Before the season officially tips, ESPN’s experts make some final predictions, and award picks.

Jump to: Playoff and award picks

Will the Aces repeat?

Alexa Philippou: The Aces showed last year that they didn’t even have to be the best team for the first three months of the season — and they could still win it all. So it’s tough to pick against them, especially given the return of their big four of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd. They also brought back key players NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans, and retooled the bench with the additions of Chennedy Carter, Stephanie Talbot and Brianna Turner. Carter hasn’t been able to stick with a roster in the WNBA, but if coach Becky Hammon and the Aces’ veterans can bring out the best in her on the court and in the locker room, she could really be a difference-maker.

Michael Voepel: Expect a repeat. Part of what makes the Aces so good is how hungry their core group — Wilson, Young, Gray — and Hammon remain. No malaise or complacency has set in, despite all the success. And the core group’s mindset sets the tone for the franchise. Consider Loyd, who had started for almost all of her career before signing with the Aces, then willingly came off the bench for Hammon because she thought it was the best strategy for the team. Her decision showed a maturity, and a respect for her teammates. That’s what the core group has fostered.

Kareem Copeland: Signs point to yes. The Aces return the only four-time MVP in league history, who is currently in her prime and carving out a legacy that could include being known as the greatest of all time. The top-six point scorers are back. Loyd took a while to find her groove in her first season outside of Seattle, but eventually carved out the perfect role. Gray remains the best pure point guard in the league. Carter was last seen averaging 17.5 points for the 2024 Chicago Sky. It would be irresponsible to list Hammon outside of the top three coaches in the league — and she’s probably not No. 3. Motivation and health are really the only questions. Can Vegas keep that same hunger, and can it avoid the significant injuries that affected the Lynx, Liberty and Fever in recent years? History isn’t on the Aces’ side; only the Houston Comets have won four in five years. On the flip side, this is a historic roster, with the most dominant player in the game.

If not Las Vegas, which team is your pick to win the 2026 title?

Copeland: If Satou Sabally can stay healthy, the Liberty have the best quartet to rival that of the Aces. Two-time MVP Breanna Stewart played only 70.5% of games last season because of a bone bruise in her right knee; she had a scope in March. That’s the lowest percentage of games she has played in a season, not counting 2019, which she sat out entirely. Stewart also matched a career low in points per game (18.3) and had career lows in rebounds (6.5) and 3-point percentage (24.1%) last season. A quartet of a healthy Sabally and Stewart plus Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones is a problem for any opponent. Plus, two-time all-defense selection, 2020 Most Improved Player and 2021 All-Star Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is back.

Philippou: The Liberty could surely make a run, but there are some unknowns as they bring in new coach Chris DeMarco and a new system. History shows us that in the WNBA, it’s very rare for a new coach to win a championship — Hammon in 2022 is the only one in league history to win a title in her debut season as a head coach.

Voepel: From the talent, experience and championship know-how perspectives, the Aces and Liberty are the favorites. But if all the pieces fall into place for Atlanta or Indiana, those teams could contend for the title as well. Both are developing their core groups. If either hits their stride in the playoffs, they could have a championship run in them.

Who is your preseason pick to win MVP?

Copeland: A’ja Wilson is the best player in the league, but the Aces needed her to average an incredible 26.1 points and 12 rebounds during a 16-0 stretch to close the regular season, after the team started 14-14. She shouldn’t have to shoulder that kind of load this year. The Aces, Liberty, Dream and Fever have so much upper-echelon talent that they might cancel each other out a bit in terms of the MVP race. But you know which team needs its best player to have an otherworldly season to remain a contender? Phoenix. Alyssa Thomas has been a top-five vote-getter each of the past three seasons, and the Mercury feel a bit underappreciated entering this season, despite playing in the 2025 Finals. Thomas would look to join Cynthia Cooper as the only players to be named MVP at 34 years old.

Philippou: Wilson showed why she’s clearly best player last season after catapulting the Aces to their third title in four years. She’s my preseason pick, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a MVP-caliber campaign from Stewart, who after dealing with injuries throughout 2025 is finally healthy. From her Unrivaled season and preseason WNBA action, she also seems to be playing some of her best basketball.

Voepel: Similar to my answer on why the Aces are again the title favorites: Wilson’s desire to be the best is relentless, and she’s still in her prime. She turns 30 in August, and a fifth MVP trophy is likely to be on her mantle not too long afterward. If they all even fit there.

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A’ja Wilson scores 18 points for the Aces

A’ja Wilson scores 18 points for the Aces

Who is your preseason pick for Rookie of the Year?

Copeland: In Minnesota, Olivia Miles has the perfect mix of talent and opportunity. The No. 2 pick starts from day one on a team that’s waiting for Napheesa Collier to get healthy and also lost Alanna Smith, Jessica Shepard, Bridget Carleton and Natisha Hiedeman during free agency. Miles might have been the No. 1 pick had Dallas not already taken reigning Rookie of the Year Paige Bueckers in the same spot last year. In her final college season, Miles averaged a career-high 19.6 points, shooting 48.1% from the field and 35.1% from beyond the arc while producing numerous triple-doubles. Even 73% of league GMs predicted she’d win the award.

Voepel: As Kareem said, Miles will get a ton of court time and be allowed to play through any growing pains. The car keys are in her hands. Look for her to become the second No. 2 pick in WNBA history to win this award. The only player to do it previously is Elena Delle Donne in 2013, then with Chicago.

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Olivia Miles with the 2 Pt

Olivia Miles with the 2 Pt, 05/01/2026

What’s the one thing you are most looking forward to seeing this season?

Copeland: The point guards. Caitlin Clark and Bueckers earnestly begin to stake their claim as the league’s future at the position. Chelsea Gray continues to remind everyone — including the youngsters — why she’s nicknamed “Point Gawd.” Miles makes a run at Rookie of the Year while Natasha Cloud plays with an even bigger chip on her shoulder after feeling she was disrespected in free agency. We also finally get to see 2025 No. 6 pick Georgia Amoore play her first regular-season games after tearing her ACL in camp as a rookie. Ionescu fills the role in New York when she gets healthy.

Philippou: With new coach Jose Fernandez and a revamped roster now featuring Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard, Dallas was one of the most exciting teams to watch this preseason. And there are other positive signs the Wings are ready to take a big step forward: Two-thirds of the league’s GMs predicted they’ll be the most improved team this year. After a stellar rookie campaign, Bueckers is poised to thrive even more, with increased talent surrounding her and an improved system in which to operate.

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Paige Bueckers scores 11 points in Wings’ preseason finale

Paige Bueckers scores 11 points in Wings’ preseason finale

Voepel: New faces in new places — although, in Nneka Ogwumike‘s case, she’s back in Los Angeles, where she spent the first 12 seasons of her career. Can her return after two years with Seattle help the Sparks end their five-season playoff drought? Can her former Storm teammate Skylar Diggins get Chicago back to the postseason after missing the past two years? How big of an impact will Satou Sabally have on an already talented New York team? And how will Angel Reese fit in with Atlanta? Then there’s the rookies. How well will the record six UCLA draftees play? Of the rookies who were not lottery picks, who will stand out the most? Many eyes will be on Raven Johnson, who could prove to be a huge steal, at No. 10, for Indiana.

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS

Who is your pick for MVP?

Kendra Andrews: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Kareem Copeland: Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix

Charlie Creme: Breanna Stewart, New York

Sean Hurd: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Eric Moody: Caitlin Clark, Indiana

Alexa Philippou: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Andre Snelling: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Michael Voepel: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Who is your pick for Rookie of the Year?

Andrews: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Copeland: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Creme: Awa Fam, Seattle

Hurd: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Moody: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Philippou: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Snelling: Azzi Fudd, Dallas

Voepel: Olivia Miles, Minnesota

Who is your pick for Defensive Player of the Year?

Andrews: Aliyah Boston, Indiana

Copeland: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Creme: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Hurd: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Moody: Aliyah Boston, Indiana

Philippou: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Snelling: Angel Reese, Atlanta

Voepel: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas

Who is your pick for Most Improved Player?

Andrews: Dominique Malonga, Seattle

Copeland: Rickea Jackson, Chicago

Creme: Jade Melbourne, Seattle

Hurd: Leila Lacan, Connecticut

Moody: Cameron Brink, Los Angeles

Philippou: Dominique Malonga, Seattle

Snelling: Rickea Jackson, Chicago

Voepel: Dominique Malonga, Seattle

Which five players will make the All-WNBA first team?

Andrews: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Breanna Stewart, New York; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Caitlin Clark, Indiana; Paige Bueckers, Dallas

Copeland: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Paige Bueckers, Dallas; Allisha Gray, Atlanta; Caitlin Clark, Indiana

Creme: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Breanna Stewart, New York; Paige Bueckers, Dallas; Jackie Young, Las Vegas

Hurd: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Breanna Stewart, New York; Paige Bueckers, Dallas; Caitlin Clark, Indiana

Moody: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Breanna Stewart, New York; Caitlin Clark, Indiana; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Aliyah Boston, Indiana

Philippou: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Breanna Stewart, New York; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Paige Bueckers, Dallas; Caitlin Clark, Indiana

Snelling: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Breanna Stewart, New York; Caitlin Clark, Indiana; Rhyne Howard, Atlanta

Voepel: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas; Breanna Stewart, New York; Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix; Caitlin Clark, Indiana; Jackie Young, Las Vegas

Which eight teams will make the playoffs?

Andrews: Las Vegas, New York, Dallas, Atlanta, Indiana, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Golden State

Copeland: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Los Angeles, Dallas, Phoenix, Minnesota

Creme: New York, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Indiana, Phoenix, Minnesota, Seattle, Los Angeles

Hurd: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Phoenix

Moody: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Dallas, Phoenix

Philippou: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Los Angeles, Dallas, Chicago, Minnesota

Snelling: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Phoenix, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Dallas

Voepel: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas, Minnesota

Which four teams will reach the WNBA semifinals?

Andrews: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Copeland: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Creme: New York, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Indiana

Hurd: Las Vegas, Atlanta, Indiana, New York

Moody: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Philippou: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Snelling: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Voepel: Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana

Which teams will meet in the WNBA Finals?

Andrews: Las Vegas, Atlanta

Copeland: Las Vegas, New York

Creme: New York, Atlanta

Hurd: Las Vegas, New York

Moody: Las Vegas, Indiana

Philippou: Las Vegas, New York

Snelling: Las Vegas, New York

Voepel: Las Vegas, New York

Which team will win the 2026 WNBA title?

Andrews: Las Vegas

Copeland: New York

Creme: New York

Hurd: Las Vegas

Moody: Las Vegas

Philippou: Las Vegas

Snelling: Las Vegas

Voepel: Las Vegas