Sixty-three years later, a new Cuban missile crisis is in the making. is team trumpBuild a vast array of military forcesin the Caribbean.
Notably, more than 10 percent of the U.S. naval fleet is either already on station or headed to the region, like the USS Gerald Ford strike group and the USS Graveley guided-missile destroyer. In terms of scale, it is similar to Washington deploying US troops earlier this year to defend Israel against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks.
This is also from Southcom biggest construction President John F. Kennedy ordered a blockade of Cuba in response to the Soviet Union building nuclear missile silos in the region.
Team Trump, for now, is presenting it largely as a domestic response to drug cartels – particularly those based in Venezuela train de aragua International Crime Syndicate – Trafficking illegal drugs into the US But in reality, it is much bigger.
President Trump, during his first administration, adopted a maximum pressure campaign against Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela declared himself the winner The 2018 presidential election was boycotted by the opposition due to “systemic election violations”. Washington refused to recognize Maduro’s re-election.
Instead, in January 2019, Trump and 50 other countries recognized juan guaido As conquistador and acting president of Venezuela. In response, Madura breaks diplomatic relations with America
Maduro’s leftist predecessor, Hugo Chávez, had begun aligning his country with Moscow, Beijing and Tehran early 2005Now, the break with America was complete.
The Axis of Evil found its modern South American startup first in Chávez and then in Maduro. Russian President Vladimir Putin sealed a deal Chávez in 2006 to sell fighter planes and helicopters to Venezuela.
By the end of 2009, Chávez had secured $2.2 billion loan facility to buy Venezuela [Russian] Weapons that include armored vehicles and surface-to-air missiles.” Despite all of Putin’s recent complaints against NATO member states arming Ukraine, the Kremlin – 17 years ago – was arming Venezuela to counter neighboring Colombia’s decision to “grant US troops greater access to its military bases”.
During the same time frame, Chávez economic relations strengthened With China. In early 2006, he signed several trade agreements with Beijing and referred to them as a “Great Wall” protecting Venezuela from “American hegemony”. By then, Chávez was openly critical of President George W. Bush as “the devil” and establishing Venezuela as junior members of the Axis of Evil along with Iran, Syria and North Korea.
Chinese purchases of Venezuelan oil proved decisive in allowing Maduro to avoid US oil sanctions aimed at ending his regime. Similarly, it gave oil-hungry Beijing another source of oil imports.
Fast forward to March 2022. Putin’s forces had invaded Ukraine. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was finalizing his work axis of resistance -Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis in Yemen. The leader of North Korea was Kim Jong-un test firing An unprecedented number of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles over Japanese territory.
permissive environment What President Joe Biden had built was backfiring on him. He was looking for victory. Fear of increase in global oil pricesBiden abandoned Trump’s maximum pressure approach against Caracas and naively tried to isolate Maduro from the anti-West axis.
As predicted, Maduro took everything he could from Biden and then stiffed him. Despite the relief of US energy sanctions, Maduro continued to ban María Corina Machado (winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize) as a presidential candidate. Venezuela’s dictator is dead by July 2024 Threat of military seizure Essequibo, a province of Guyana where US-based Exxon has invested billions.
As Elliot Abrams notedPresident Biden last year nevertheless “gave oxygen to the Maduro regime.” The irony is that it took a fellow leftist government in Brazil to keep Caracas under control – it Venezuela’s bid vetoed To join the BRICS after Maduro’s blatant theft from Edmundo Gonzalez, the winner of the 2024 election.
This was then. It is now. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Maduro is back, and this time, he is casting a wider net. The Pentagon’s show of force is also directly aimed at Moscow and Beijing—which is what the modern Monroe Doctrine claims.
The White House’s message to the axis of evil is as simple as it is clear: away from the Western Hemisphere. As We noted last JanuaryTrump began sending that message to Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping when they ruled out military force in Greenland or the Panama Canal.
So far, neither Putin nor Xi appear ready to accept this message. It is noteworthy that over the weekend a Russian cargo plane The Wagner Group and other Russian paramilitary companies in the past landed in Caracas. In the past, these aircraft have been used to ship “rockets, weapons and helicopter parts globally”.
Specifically, the cargo plane took a circuitous route from Moscow to Caracas “through Armenia, Algeria, Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania to Latin America”. Although its contents are unknown, Putin’s message to Trump is clear. she is ready to bring him global war against the west to America.
Beijing is also keeping an eye on Trump’s gathering in the Caribbean region. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said,said last weekThat “China opposes any steps that violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and the country’s sovereignty and security. We oppose the use or threat of force in international relations and the interference of external forces in Venezuela’s internal affairs under any pretext.”
There is no doubt that Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines want China to stick to Ning’s ridiculous empty statement and stop encroaching on their waters by maneuvering against Taipei.
However, Team Trump can register victory here. Putin and Xi have taken notice and are at a loss for how to counter Washington. Maduro will likely lose. World War III is here, and although it’s all happening very close to home, America still looks to be winning.
mark tothWrites on national security and foreign policy. Colonel (Retd) Jonathan SweetServed for 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.
