after a Surprising 8-6 upset loss in Italy World Baseball Classic Pool Play Team USA’s knockout stage fate now depends on the outcome of Wednesday’s Italy-Mexico game.
Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that will determine whether the star-studded US team reaches the quarterfinals or is sent home in an all-time shocker.
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How can Team USA advance in the WBC?
Team USA advances if…
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Italy defeated Mexico: Italy would win the pool 4–0 and Team USA would finish second at 3–1 (ahead of Mexico on 2–2 points).
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If Mexico beats Italy And Mexico scored five or more runs in nine innings. All of these teams would finish 3–1, with Mexico and Team USA then advancing on tiebreakers.
Team USA is eliminated if…
How do WBC tiebreaker scenarios work
Given the round-robin format of the WBC’s inaugural round, a tie in pool play can be expected. This is how the teams moving forward are decided.
tiebreaker between two teams
three-team tiebreaker
While the two-team tiebreaker scenario is pretty straightforward, it certainly becomes more complicated when three teams finish with the same record, with the tiebreaker being decided in this order:
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Lowest quotient of runs allowed by defensive outs in a game between tied teams
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The lowest quotient of lowest earned runs divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the game between tied teams
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Highest batting average in games between tied teams
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make lots of pictures
Heading into Wednesday’s Pool B final, there are thus three teams vying to pile up the runs per defensive out (and the lower the quotient is the better).
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Team USA: 11 runs allowed, 54 defensive outs. 0.2037 quotient
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Mexico: Five runs allowed, 24 defensive outs. 0.2083 quotient
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Italy: Six runs allowed, 27 defensive outs. 0.2222 quotient
