-
Pamela Maldonado
can we talk North Texas For a minute?
Week 3 of the playoff rankings have been released and the strangest thing is that North Texas is at -115 both ways to make or miss the playoffs… while not even being ranked. Tulane is the only AAC team the committee is willing to accept, and Navy isn’t even in the top 25. Yet there’s a number hanging on the books that basically says: This is the team the market expects to grow.
The committee is giving feedback on the resume. There are big wins in North Texas, but not quality wins. Washington State, Army And south alabama Don’t move the needle. UNT then suffered a loss, a 63-36 defensive collapse. south floridaThis is the kind of disaster game that the committee inevitably punishes, tulane looks clear and navy Looks competitive, but then again… only Tulane is ranked.
Sportsbooks don’t set the price of a resume, they set the price of where it ends up. North Texas is a team with maximum ceiling, scoring margin, passing efficiency, a 12-1 rout and underlying metrics that force the committee to call late.
So no, North Texas is not ranked today and yes, they are still at -115 to make the playoffs. The committee is grading from September to November. The market is grading December.
UNT winning the conference isn’t just explosive, but structurally complete. They lead the conference in scoring at 45 points per game, sit close to 490 yards per game and have one of the best passing efficiency profiles in all of college.
cubby Drew Mestemaker Has over 3,000 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, with four receivers over 340 yards – the most balanced passing tree in the AAC. Navy and Tulane don’t have a counter to this. This difference is both stylistic and mathematical.
Against Tulane, the separation is immediately apparent. Tulane is averaging 28 points per game and barely gaining 400 yards passing. The Green Wave’s explosiveness is limited, their yards per pass are solid but not game-breaking, and they rely on staying ahead of schedule.
UNT blows you away on the schedule, causing turnovers at a rate that Tulane has not faced, which is tied for the most in the conference all time. Tulane also doesn’t have the speed or vertical threats to match the possessions. If you fall behind UNT, the game drags out.
Navy may be trickier as they have fewer assets, but the contest is still green. Navy holds 6.4 yards per carry, which draws you into a ditch game, but they have no ability to chase. Navy’s loss at North Texas already told the story, once UNT scored twice, Navy showed its one-dimensional limitations.
The AAC title comes because of scoreboard pressure. North Texas has the highest conference cap, highest scoring range, and cleanest statistical path to the title trophy, regardless of whether they are a ranked team or not.
