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Brian Windhorst
tex winter, one One of the great basketball coaches of the 20th century once summarized a classic NBA paradox with five words: Everything changes on one little thing,
The league’s best teams often teeter on a knife’s edge, thriving on consistency but constantly in a fragile state, which explains the current state of the weak Eastern Conference.
The two favorites meet in a made-for-television opener on Wednesday in New York cleveland cavaliers and this nix (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), are in this spot due to the continuity of their roster and the bad luck of fellow contenders.
Gut-churning images of damian lillardThen jayson tatumAnd then Tyrese HaliburtonEach made fatal mistakes and ruptured their Achilles tendons within a matter of weeks in a painful playoff stretch that cost both of these teams the most precious opportunities in the NBA.
The window to reach the Finals is wide open for the Cavs and Knicks, who return all of their key players along with added depth to their rosters.
For now.
“We have a target on our back,” new Knicks coach Mike Brown said. “We better get it.”
The Cavs have been barreling towards this moment for five years, fielding a team with two All-NBA players, Donovan Mitchell And darius garlandFour players with All-Star appearances on their resume, and an impressive spread of depth that has kept their payroll under $400 million this season, including luxury taxes.
But because of this, they have entered the netherworld known as the Second Apron, and they are currently the only team living there.
Last season, three teams – the boston celtics, phoenix sun And minnesota timberwolves – Tax and roster were in this punishing area of restrictions, and all three ran away with key players this season.
Three teams that were in the first season also dropped out after an uneasy year.
No one stays in the second apron for long, at least not at the beginning of the New Testament. So, while all of the Cavs’ core players are in their 20s, keeping this group together could be untenable unless the team grows up and starts winning right away. For example, the Celtics were in the second apron in 2023–24 and after winning the 2024 title, they remained in the second apron because the ownership spent approximately $100 million in luxury taxes over the two-year period.
The Cavs have had upsets in the playoffs due to a higher seed in two of the last three seasons and a second-round exit last season. Indiana Pacers The five games were bittersweet, a long time coming after a 64-win season.
“The question will come for us,” Cavs president Koby Altman said. “How do you deal with this collective bargaining agreement and the restrictions that we have? For us, we’ve prepared ourselves to build a runway with the people we have.”
But all runway eventually runs out of pavement, and the Cavs are nearing their end.
That’s why Altman traded for defensive specialist guard lonzo ball Added several backup big men in the offseason to give the Cavs some size after the Pacers exploited them inside.
“We’re not inventing this thing,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said. “We’ve really created an identity not only on the court but on how we practice, how we develop, all that. We’re going to double down on all of that. But we need to make some changes in the way we play.”
Part of it is to put more aggressive responsibility evan mobleyplate of. He will have more of the ball this season and is expected to take another step forward as a playmaker after averaging a career-best 18.5 points last season, especially with Garland out as the point guard recovers from toe surgery.
There are more hopes for the future deandre hunterWhose midseason acquisition last season guaranteed the Cavs would move to the second apron.
now with max strus After missing several months with a foot injury, Hunter’s role will change – from Sixth Man of the Year contender to starter, after a summer of work that excited the Cavs coaches.
As the Celtics and Pacers, the last two Eastern Conference champions, removed key players such as kristaps porzingis, junior holiday And miles turner like them in summer faced a gap of years The Knicks, too, retained and added to their roster, with their franchise players Tatum and Haliburton in long-term rehabilitation.
Although they upgraded their depth with one of the league’s best bench scorers, jordan clarksonand added the energetic French forward gershon jabuseleThe The controversial firing of coach Tom ThibodeauThe move represents the only major personnel change, taking the Knicks to the conference finals for the first time in 25 years.
Brown, for his part, has brought with him a high-paced offense that he believes will make the Knicks less predictable and reduce the burden on the All-NBA guard. Jalen BrunsonWho led the league in clutch scoring and dribbling last season, a combination that was admirable but cumbersome.
“It’s always good to have short-term memory to focus on what’s coming next and figure out how you can get better,” said Brunson, who led the NBA in usage rate and field goal attempts per game the last two postseasons. “You can learn from things in the past.”
The Knicks have barely, but expertly, dodged the second apron by relative pennies over the past two seasons, leaving it open. Some? Trade options, such as being able to combine salaries in a deal.
But they traded for six first-round picks mikal bridges And carl-anthony town In 2024 – The deals made to surround Brunson with a defensive safety in Bridges and a pick-and-roll partner in Towns have them deeply invested in the current roster.
Those limited paths appeared first in August When trade talks were underway for the Bucks star giannis antetokounmpo No progress was made.
One of the league’s signature stars expressed interest in becoming the Knicks, but the Knicks could not, or would not, make a serious enough offer for the Bucks to consider.
Which puts even more pressure on the 2025-26 Knicks, who may actually have the best chance to reach the Finals in 25 years.
The interest in Antetokounmpo was the type of opportunity the Knicks had sought one way or another for more than a decade as they repeatedly failed to land a superstar.
Perhaps those talks can be revisited this season or next summer. But there’s no guarantee Antetokounmpo will have the Knicks at the top of the list should he reconsider his departure from Milwaukee, a process he’ll probably control with only one more season left on his contract.
However, for now, those bigger business considerations are secondary.
“Our team is unified and has the continuity needed to do great work,” Towns said. “We showed it last year and we’re going to carry it forward.”
