-
Kelly McDaniel
MLB held its fourth annual draft lottery at the winter meetings in Orlando on Tuesday, and chicago white sox Reached the number 1 spot overall In the 2026 MLB Draft.
It’s still very early in the draft process, but it’s a perfect time for a five-pick mini-mock draft to see how things might play out in July. four out of five players last winter edition This exercise landed the top 11 picks on draft day, so it’s fair to think we have a fair idea of how the top picks will play out, even though a lot could change over the coming seven months.
After consulting with industry sources, along with my own scouting, here are my initial predictions for the first five selections in the 2026 MLB Draft.
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowski, SS, UCLA
Cholowski was a big name in the 2023 draft, 32nd ranking On my final board as a standout defender with solid tools, but with a big asking price, there are questions about his overall offensive aspect. His bonus value was not fulfilled and he was strong as a freshman at UCLA, then as a sophomore he took a huge leap and hit 23 home runs last season.
He’s still an exceptional defender, but now both his (above average) hit and (plus) power tools have evolved, allowing evaluators to go back to the last decade and find comps at the top of previous drafts, such as dansby swanson Or Troy Tulowitzki. Choleowski has a pretty solid edge for the top pick right now, but it’s not insurmountable given the solid group of above-medium, high-advantage talent in this class.
The lottery couldn’t have gone any better for the White Sox after a 102-loss season, landing the top pick in a year in which there is a clear preseason favorite to become the top pick. Chase Meadroth And colson montgomery There are solid shortstop options in the big leagues with Caleb Bonner and Billy Carlson, who are top 100 types in the low minors, but Cholowski will give the White Sox a big problem: too many good players at the most important position on the field.
2. tampa bay rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX) HS, Texas committed
Emerson has been viewed as the top prep prospect in the 2026 class for years and has maintained that title during the summer showcase season and fall workouts. He is a 6 foot 2 inches tall, left-handed hitting shortstop who performs better than average at almost everything on the field. He may not be truly plus-plus in anything right now, but he’s still only 17, so he can develop.
Given his long track record of being an elite prospect and having the most desirable player demographic in the draft, he is a unanimous talent in this select area, even for teams that don’t typically take high school players top. The Rays are not a team that has been taking prep shortstops in the top two rounds in each of the last three drafts; Tampa Bay also likes left-handed hitters. Emerson is a rare prep prospect who is a safer option than most college players, but also comes with more upside.
3. minnesota twins: Justin LeBron, SS, Alabama
LeBron was viewed as part of a loaded 2023 prep class along with prep teammate Antonio Jimenez, a third-round pick of the Mets in 2025 out of UCF. LeBron’s offense and athleticism each jumped a tick when he arrived in Tuscaloosa, and the 6-foot-2 shortstop is now a plus runner, thrower and defender with above-average raw power. His pitch selection is fine, the only question is about his bat-to-ball ability due to a worse-than-average miss rate last season, fueled in part by a tough, power-driven approach. If LeBron can find a happy medium between his swing plane, contact and power, he could challenge Cholowski as the top pick.
The Twins aren’t afraid of a little swing-and-miss if it comes to big upsets in recent drafts like Billy Amick, Brandon Winokur and Quentin Young over the past three years, but they also like to take college shortstops like Kellen Culpepper, Marek Houston and Kyle DeBarge. LeBron has threaded the certainty needle given his tools and positional profile, but it doesn’t exactly translate to upside due to his contact/power balance being a bit off at the moment.
4. san francisco giants:Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress was my favorite pick in the 2023 draft, ranking number 40 On my board (among the highest ranked among the media and teams), but ultimately proved unsigned to teams in which he was also in that category. He is only 5-foot-8 inches tall, so impact power was not expected at the time, but given his size he had more power than you might think, as well as a long track record of hitting for average, speed, and center-field defense.
Burress took steps forward at Georgia Tech, especially when it came to power – hitting 25 homers as a freshman and 19 in his sophomore year – driven by now above-average raw power. He grades out as above average or plus in all five tools, but his approach/swing is more power-oriented than in high school, so balancing his abilities at the plate in pro ball could be key to reaching his ceiling. The Giants have had college position players in their top three picks each of the last two years and will likely look to the best available player from the same demographic in 2026.
5. pittsburgh pirates: AJ Garcia, OF, Virginia
Garcia had almost no national scouting profile after graduating from a New Jersey high school as a two-way player before attending Duke in 2023. He immediately showed scouts that he should have been considered a true pro prospect out of high school, hitting .305 with 14 homers as a freshman, then following that up with more walks, fewer strikeouts and 15 homers as a sophomore. Garcia transferred to Virginia after the season, following most members of the Duke coaching staff.
Currently he is a 6-foot-3 center/right field tweener who is above average in almost everything in the batter’s box, especially his ability to lift/pull the ball into play, although his swing can be too heavy at times.
The Pirates appear to be turning the corner with Connor Griffin and bubba chandler join in Paul Skenes & Co., while they’re also looking to spend money in free agency, so I see them leaning toward the college position-player group that is a strength of this class.
