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Pamela Maldonado
Some weeks it’s just about the one game that catches your eye, but Week 8 is like a bit of a buffet. There are lines that were overreacted, totals that haven’t caught on and matchups that look nothing like what the market thinks.
We’ve got Hawaii in its stride, absolutely begging to go in Logan, a trench war in Columbia, a survival dog in Boise and a Texas Tech defense that may (still) be the best-kept secret in college football.
Five games, five stories, each bet backed by form, data and a little instinct. Let’s have a happy week.
all possibilities espn bet
choose: Hawaii +115
Market move from -1.5 to -2.5 looks reactionary after Rams crush Colorado State fresno state (the same opponent Hawaii lost to), but the outcome was based on turnover luck and shaky short fields rather than execution. Fresno State still had 469 total yards – 350 through the air – and three freebies that turned the score.
Perception does not equal predicted value.
Meanwhile, Hawaii has finished with back-to-back wins over Air Force and Utah State, scoring 44 points each, over 530 yards per game and only one total turnover in those two weeks. The offense finally looks like it has clicked. mica alejado Has established himself by completing over 65% of his passes, while that coverage unit ranks in the top 30 in FBS.
Colorado State’s defense sits in the bottom 15 in coverage with a bottom-five pass rush, which is exactly where Hawaii can attack. Rams cannot generate heat.
The Rainbow Warriors are in form, efficient and ultimately protecting the football. If you like insurance, take the +2.5, but I’m tempering the overreaction and playing the +115 money line. This is one of those short-spread games where you either hit the reads or you don’t, and recent form suggests Hawaii’s balance and passing tempo is too fast to fade.
choose: more than 62.5
We got all the unders last week, so I’m really excited to play the overs. It checks every box.
San Jose State plays fast. The Spartans are in the top 30 in plays per game, and they’re even faster on the road. Utah State doesn’t run that many games, but the Aggies are one of the most efficient teams in the country, ranking in the top 30 in points per game. That combination is exactly what you want in a high total: one team pushing the pace and the other scoring in bits and pieces.
It also helps if neither side can stop the big play, and both teams have at least two of the most disruptive defensive fronts and secondaries. Translation: Both quarterbacks will have time to throw, and both have shown the ability to make deep hits. walker agate Average more than 17 yards per attempt on passes of 20 yards or more, and bryson barnes Connected for 10 touchdowns on throws of more than 10 yards.
Add in the fact that Utah State is in the top 25 in touchdowns scored, and it has all the makings of a back-and-forth scorefest. Fast pace, efficient finishing and two defenses who are allergic to stopping.
If you like crime, this is getting total hotness.
choose: under 43.5
We’re trading the fast break for barefoot soccer in Colombia. Both teams faced elite defenses last week and they proved lethal. Oklahoma scored only six points against Texas, and South Carolina managed 10 points against LSU. Some may say those were off nights, I would say that is when momentum comes to the real rescue.
Oklahoma’s defense is no joke – top three overall, and first in both pass and rush success rate allowed. To put it bluntly, some teams move the ball to the Sooners. Meanwhile, South Carolina only scores from the red zone 50% of the time. Getting downfield is half the battle but finishing drives have been the problem.
Combine this with both teams sitting in the bottom 30 in explosive play, and time in possession will start to waste.
Oklahoma will likely control the game script through efficiency. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s offensive line has given up the third-most sacks this season. This is a big problem against a pass rush that ranks in the top 10 in generating pressure.
This will result in a slow burn rather than a spark. Under feels right, not cautious.
choose: UNLV +12.5
Good team or good record? That’s the question with UNLV. This line opened Boise -10, and peaked at 12.5. Another test of perception more than performance.
UNLV is a shiny 6-0 team, but who have the Rebels played? Air Force is the only shared opponent, and both teams converted that game into a track meet.
So what do we make of UNLV? Respect the rebounds. This team can move the football and it scores fast and often. Boise State has been solid but not dominant, giving up 25 or more points to three teams, including New Mexico, a much less dynamic team than UNLV.
So why is Boise State so highly regarded? Home area and depth. But UNLV’s balance and explosiveness travels. The Rebels just need to keep doing what they do best: controlling the tempo.
UNLV may not be a good 6-0, but the Rebels are good enough to stick around. They are too explosive to be buried, Boise State is most vulnerable inside the red zone, and cannot deal with it (124th class). This leaves room for UNLV to convert short passes into pieces for speed.
Live a little dangerously: fade the line and support the rebels. Rebellion has its rewards.
Two choices: Texas Tech -7.5 And ASU under 21.5
Doubling? Not enough. It’s making two bets that tell the same story from different angles, and the analysis supports both.
Texas Tech -7.5, 11.5 is a bet on dominance at a discounted price from the opener. The Red Raiders have one of the most complete statistical profiles in the country – top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, averaging 45 points and 5.9 yards per carry over their last three games, while giving up only six touchdowns in 11 red zone trips on defense.
The Red Raiders’ pass rush is relentless – with 157 pressures and 21 sacks combined with the highest grade and best rushing defense. This is a ridiculous production in which they don’t just bring pressure; they finish.
These are statistics of a team that wins comfortably, not merely survives and because they rarely provide opportunities.
That same defensive dominance sets the stage for the second angle.
The Arizona State team’s total score under 21.5 is a separate, complementary game. It’s not about the spread or even the Red Raiders offense; It’s about Arizona State’s inability to sustain a drive against an elite defense. The Sun Devils offensive line has given up 17 sacks, and now faces the best pressure unit in college football. ASU averages 26 points, but falls into the teens more than any team.
bahren morton It remains day-to-day, but Texas Tech showed last week it can still hum without him. cameron dickey Gained 263 yards on the ground as a freshman Will Hammond Controlled the offense with two quick scores, dynamic shined once he settled down. Even if Morton sits, the Red Raiders’ balance and physicality travels.
Both bets work together without increasing the risk excessively. If Texas Tech covers, Arizona State almost certainly stays down. One bet on control of Tech, the other on ASU’s borders.
