It may be possible to make difficult lineup decisions each week The most challenging part of fantasy Football Process. When you’re stuck between two similar players and don’t know who to start with, start with the player with the better matchup.
ah, but of course How Does anyone determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable to opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense has performed relative to the difficulty of the schedule. This provides an unbiased approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adjusted FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, shows how much above or below the players’ weekly PPR fantasy point average the defense put opponents in that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; A negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover All Of a team personnel in that position.
Finally, a caveat: matchups are One Ingredient in my ranking formula. Not every favorable matchup should be taken advantage of, nor should unfavorable matchups be avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN Fantasy staff’s — most complete source on who to start and sit with each week, consult Our weekly ranking,
quarterback
Matchup Highlights: Justin Herbert, los angeles chargers (vs indianapolis colts, He has been a more prominent part of the Chargers’ offense this season than last season, attempting passes on 57% of his snaps played (up from 51%), and hurt Omarion Hampton (The ankle) should continue to bounce at that rate. Herbert will be heavily involved in a game projected to be one of the highest scoring of the week (48.5 over/under) against a Colts defense that has struggled to stop elite quarterbacks. bo nix (20.24 fantasy points in Week 2), Matthew Stafford (27.40, week 4) and Jacoby Brissett (20.70, Week 6) Everyone scored more than 20 points against this defense.
Other likes: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs New Orleans Saints, aaron rodgers, pittsburgh steelers (But cincinnati bengalsThursday); Baker Mayfield, tampa bay buccaneers (But detroit lions,
To avoid matchups: jalen hurts, philadelphia eagles (But minnesota vikings, As the No. 4 QB in fantasy scoring for the season and one of the league’s best running QBs, he’s a tough player to bench regardless of the matchup. However, the Vikings, who have a rest week, represent one of their most challenging opponents this season, meaning you should temper your expectations. The Vikings have allowed quarterbacks the seventh-fewest yards per passing attempt (0.37), and since Hurts has generated a good portion of his fantasy production via tush pushes (19% of his points since the start of 2023 have come on runs from the 1-yard line), be aware that the Vikings risked a touchdown on only 31% of rushing attempts within three yards of the goal line. , which is the third best rate. League.
run behind
Matchup Highlights: quinshawn judkins, cleveland browns (vs miami dolphins, Judkins has been surprisingly productive for a player whose team has played 77% of its games on offense while trailing on the scoreboard (the league’s fourth-highest rate), and who has missed training camp and Week 1 of the regular season. According to Next Gen Stats, he has a better-than-expected 101 rushing yards (fifth), 344 yards after contact (sixth) and eight explosive runs (22nd), and ranks 20th in fantasy points per game (13.1). Now, for the first time all season, Judkins plays as the Browns favorite (giving up 2.5 points), which means potentially wider opportunities for him against a defense that has surrendered 20-point performances to a guy in four of the past five weeks.
Other likes: jaylen warrenSteelers (at Bengals, Thursday); Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (But dallas cowboys, Ramondre Stevenson, new England Patriots (But tennessee titans,
To avoid matchups: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs carolina panthers, He and his teammates are returning from London, where they had an abysmal offensive effort, in which they averaged 5.9 fantasy points on 22 touches and the Jets totaled nine points and 82 yards of offense as a team. denver broncosWhile the Panthers do not have the reputation of the Broncos as defensive giants, they have played excess A much better defense than they are given credit for. The Panthers’ defense is 13 spots higher against the running backs (fifth) than the Broncos’ (18th). The Panthers also limited No. 4 (D’Von Achen) and number 5 (javonte williams) RB’s have totaled 25.0 points in hard fought wins over the last two weeks.
wide receiver
Matchup Highlights: deebo samuelCommander (in Cowboy). It’s not often you see a defense with adjusted FPA numbers in the double digits as deep as the Cowboys have against wide receivers (17.8), but here we are. In six games, the Cowboys have seen Seven Individual wideouts scored more than 15 fantasy points against them, and a league-leading three of them scored more than 25 points (malik nabors And van’dale robinson In week 2, Romeo Doubs in week 4). Additionally, in three of their six games, the Cowboys surrendered double-digit fantasy scores to two different wide receivers, which would be significant in the event Samuel Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) is able to make a comeback.
Other likes: lad mcconkeyChargers (vs. Colts); mike evansBuccaneers (at Lions); Brian Thomas Jr., jacksonville jaguars (vs Los Angeles Rams,
To avoid matchups: tetaroa macmillanCarolina Panthers (at New York Jets). Bryce Young’s early season struggles have held McMillan back from success so far, and while the rookie’s usage metrics show promise – he has a 25% target share and seven red zone targets – he’s not yet at the point where he can be called matchup-proof. This is one of their tougher attempts on the 2025 schedule, as the Jets have seen a relatively low number of pass attempts (28.3 per game, sixth lowest) and have allowed only two opposing wide receivers to score at least 15 fantasy points against them (calvin austin iii In week 1, Ryan Flournoy in week 5).
tight end
Matchup Highlights: mason taylorJets (vs. Panthers). Tight end is a tough position to fill, as only four of the preseason top-10 positional picks on average find themselves in the top 10 in scoring, while 13 of the 35 instances of 15-point performances by a tight end so far have come from more than half of the available players in ESPN leagues. In short, the matchup has been the way to go at the situation, and Taylor is one of the best this week. The Panthers have scored a league-high 2.45 fantasy points per goal, and are the only team to see an individual tight end score at least 7.9 points against them in all six weeks.
To avoid matchups: TJ HockensonVikings (vs. Eagles). Conversely, the Eagles have held tight to the fewest fantasy points per target (1.15). This isn’t the first time he’s excelled defending the position, as he finished fourth-best in that department in 2024 in assists (1.49) and third-best in adjusted fantasy points added (minus-2.6). Hockenson’s 16.9% target share ranks 15th among tight ends, a modest workload that makes him a volatile fantasy starter.
