Week 7 betting: Saquon comes to life, Josh Jacobs keeps rolling, plus a pair of teasers to play

Value is value, no matter where – or how – you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this area – find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different approaches to sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to choose plus-expected value bets.

These weekly selections will not be limited to any certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or defensive player props, good value can be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit bets for each listed bet.

With that, let’s dive into Week 7. As always, possibilities remain espn bet sportsbook,

NOTE: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

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sports betting , defensive support , offensive support

sports betting

game

Why is Kurt Warner worried about the Eagles?

Kurt Warner joined “The Rich Eisen Show” to explain why he fears the Eagles have lost their identity.

carolina panthers,New York Jets total marks less than 41.5 (-105)

It’s hard to bet on the Jets offense right now. That unit is in the bottom 10 in scoring, and the pass game is limited. Justin Fields‘Lack of time and pocket awareness. Also, the Jets will get to see a Panthers defense that ranks ninth overall against the run (94.5 yards per game). Carolina, on the other hand, is scoring 22.0 ppg (19th). Take it down. — Bowen

miami dolphins,cleveland browns To go less than 36.5 (-110)

According to the weather, wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected in Cleveland on Sunday, so let’s take a look. Remember, starting quarterback tua tagovailoa And dillon gabriel Both are timing and rhythm throwers who lack the arm strength to propel the ball through the air. This makes the passing game set for Sunday unpredictable – at best. The run game leads the call sheet here, and both teams already rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring. — Bowen

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser (-110): indianapolis colts But los angeles chargers (+5), tampa bay buccaneers But detroit lions (+0.5)

Let’s tease the Chargers to +5 at home vs. Colts. Now, I really like what Indy can do on offense Daniel JonesHe is a ball distributor and manages a system that features a high level run game jonathan taylorBut I’ll take the Chargers (with points) Justin Herbert Colts could target secondary that could get back kenny moore ii (Achilles).

On the other end, Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, and he may get mike evans Back for Monday night’s game in Detroit. this is important emeka egbuka (Hamstring) and chris godwin jr(Fibula) Both are suspect for this. However, in a game like a shootout, I’ll take Detroit’s explosive playmaking offense, and we’ll cut the spread by half a point. He is a winner. , Bowen

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser (-139): New York Giants But denver broncos (-1.5), houston texans at (+9.5) Seattle Seahawks

I like Denver with the rookie defense vs. Vance Joseph jackson dartBut I like the spread even more to drop to -1.5 for the Broncos at home. bo nix hasn’t played his best football, and the Giants’ edge rushers can be disruptive. Low-scoring game here, but Denver covers.

On the other hand, we can take the line to +9.5 for the Texans, and given Demeco Ryans’ defense I feel good about that. This Texans unit is giving up just 12.2 points per game (lowest in the league), and they are in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game. Limiting the Seahawks’ wide receivers Jackson Smith-Njigba is a must. we know that. But the Texans also have the personnel to cause disruption in the pocket against the quarterback Sam DarnoldAnd offensively, the Texans’ wide receivers Nico Collins The Seahawks can create a matchup against a defense allowing 235.5 passing yards per game (24th). Texans move to cover. , Bowen

offensive player support

game

Yates: Skatabo is a top 15 fantasy RB for Week 7

Field Yates explains why Cam Scatebo is a solid starting RB option as the Giants take on the Broncos in Week 7.

trevor lawrence To go Under 34.5 pass attempts (-120)

Yes, Lawrence has over 40 pass attempts in half of his games this season, but we have to contextualize those attempts with downs, distance and the game situation. When we do this, we find that the Jaguars are a more run-leaning team with a negative-8% pass rate than expected, according to NFL Next Gen stats. Additionally, the Rams defense is forcing opponents to run more than usual. Teams have recorded a higher-than-expected negative-8% pass rate against Los Angeles, but negative-2% in all other games. These two factors together drive my model way Under here. , walder

trevor lawrence To go Under 21.5 completions (-120)

Lawrence is averaging 21.5 completions on the season, so that number is about right. But watching these international games has been difficult. Football is bad there. So, I’ll take the under for Lawrence vs A in London Los Angeles Rams Defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 52.3 (seventh lowest) this season. , Bowen

Sam Darnold To go Intercept less than 0.5 (-110)

My model likes this bet, and even with just a glance it looks like a favorable number. Darnold has thrown three picks this year, putting him at a 1.8% interception rate which is about league average among starters, but he hasn’t had any potential interceptions dropped, so my model views him a little more favorably than the 1.8% rate. However, more important is that Seattle is favored! As scary as the Houston pass rush is, the fact that the Seahawks are solid 3.5-point favorites means we can expect fewer pass attempts for Darnold due to the game script and less risk if he’s playing off the lead. I price it below -137. , walder

cam skatebow To go Under 2.5 Receptions (+105)

Running backs catch passes against zone coverage at nearly twice the rate as against man coverage (an incredible split!). We are using this fact – and I believe this is not fully captured in the betting market – to place bets against mostly reception overs dallas cowboysJoe is playing near historic levels of zone coverage (82% of the time). The other side of the coin also comes into play – running back receptions underweight against heavily loaded teams. And there’s no team that plays more man coverage than that denver broncosTheir 65% man coverage rate is no historical anomaly, but it is the highest in the league by a healthy margin. , walder

bo nix To go Over 19.5 rushing yards (-120)

As I said above, the Giants have edge rushers to warm the pocket more than the Knicks, and I think it forces him to go out of the schedule/play as a runner. The Knicks have rushed for 20 or more yards in four of their last five games. He gets the over in this one again, using his dual-threat ability on melee attempts. , Bowen

Saquon Barkley To go Over 74.5 rushing yards (-115)

Barkley’s numbers have declined this year, as he is averaging just 54.2 yards rushing per game. But if Philly wants to create an offensive answer and establish more momentum, it starts with the O-line and run game. That’s Eagles football. Get Barkley to overhit against a Minnesota run defense that is allowing 132.2 rush yards per game (24th). , Bowen

josh jacobs To go Over 74.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jacobs has rushed for 80 or more yards in three of his last four games and is averaging 19.6 yards per game on the season. We have to remember that the run game is a fundamental part of Matt LaFleur’s offense, so look for another volume day for Jacobs vs. Arizona in Week 7. , Bowen

jk dobbins To go Rushing over 61.5 yards (-110)

Dobbins has topped 62 yards rushing in five of six games this season, and he is averaging 15.2 a game. With the volume steady, let’s get Dobbins to hit the over against a Giants defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. , Bowen

travis kels To go Over 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

leading wide receiver Rashi Rice Is back from suspension for Sunday matchup vs. the Raiders, but I don’t think it erases Kelce’s impact on quicks and middle-of-the-field throws. Kelce has topped 42 receiving yards in five of the six games played, and he gets the Raiders defense to average 45.5 receiving yards per game. Kelsey remains busy with this. , Bowen

Torrie Horton to record 50+ receiving yards (+450)

Horton perfectly fits the profile of the type of player that my alternative receiving yards model typically targets (which, admittedly, hasn’t really had much success this year!). He is a deep threat, running deep fades and going on routes 21% of the time (third-highest among wide receivers with at least 80 receiving yards this year), as well as a 53% vertical route rate overall (fourth-highest). We look for these types of players for these types of bets because we are not concerned with the average outcome – for example, go routes are inefficient on average – but rather the upside. And deeper routes offer rich benefits. Additionally, Horton’s efficiency has also been pretty solid, with 2.2 yards per route run vs. man coverage – an early sign of skill for a fifth-round rookie. , walder

zack ertz to score Anytime TD (+200)

Ertz has caught a touchdown pass in three of six games played this season, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will plan to have his tight ends in the lower red zone area of ​​the field. There’s a lot of juice at stake, and it fits against a Dallas defense that has given up a league-high 15 touchdown passes. , Bowen