Week 3 NFL best bets, analysis, game picks and props

Price is value, no matter where – or how – you find it. And this is what we aim to do every week in this place – find the price.

Ben Solk is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling with his unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walders bring different approaches how they contact sports betting. A pre -NFL security, Bowen tape studies predicts positive matchup and their understanding of game winners and leagues. Walder plus-applied value depends on the statistical model to take bets.

These weekly pics will not be limited to a certain stake type. From spreads and money lines to yoga or even defensive players Props, a good price can be found anywhere.

The results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-units bet for each listed bet. As usual, are from Auds ESPN Bet Sportsbook,

With this, let’s dive into the week 3.

Note: Walder’s defensive prop bet will be added as they become available.

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Sports bets , Aggressive support

Sports bets

Dallas Cowboys But Chicago beer Total number More than 50.5 (-115)

Dallas Defense lacks impact players. You can see on the tape. And I am looking at a beer unit that is struggling to find the crowd nearby, while injuries are already being given to the second and third levels. Through two weeks, Dallas is allowing 6.4 yards per play (29th in the league), checking in Chicago 7.2 (31st), and both are giving more than 30 points per game. Poor football. Dallas will have a pass-game matchup to exploit this one, and I would not be surprised if Kaleb Williams Post your best numbers of the season on Sunday in the Soldier Field. Take the over. , Bowen

Philadelphia eagles To cover -3.5 (even) Vs. Los Angeles Ram

We know that Eagles need to make more explosive drama in a pass game. Through two weeks, Jalen hurts Completing 75.6% of its throw, but that effort is only 5.6 yards per attempt. Now, on this Sunday, there will be opportunities to cover Ramas Split-Safety and Cover 3 Zone, so let’s meet AJ Brown And Devonta Smith Loose on top. But I am still taking birds here due to the aggressive front and run game. Memorization, Sakwon barkle In the previous season, each of the two matchup vs Ram participated at a distance of 200 yards. Win with a fundamental approach on the ground, while increasing the shot play throw and increase the hurts. He is eagles football. , Bowen

green Bay Packers At (mL) Cleveland Brown And Tampa bay bouquaneers (ML) VS New York Jets In Two-Team Parlaya (-166)

I see Green Bay and Tampa Bay as a lock this week, so let’s ensure them in two-team parliament.

Packers Pass Crowd – In addition Micah Parsons – has generated a pressure rate of 40% (third highest) in the league, and they have eight sacks (tied to the second most). In addition, they have the advantages of matchup on the edges vs the aggressive tackle of brown. Which with low mobility of flacco, it looks like a game where Green Bay determines from a defensive perspective.

In Tampa Bay Matchup, Justin fields Out (convention), so we will see Tireode taylor Manage crime. However, Taylor and Jets need to find a skilled run game, which is not easy for the defensive front of books. Through two games, Tampa is allowing only 3.3 YPC, which installs its pressure package on the third down. Bend to protect Tampa and bet here Baker mefield To win important moments – again. , Bowen

Aggressive player props

game

Why d’andre swift fantasy vs. is an easy start in Cowboy

Mike Clay explains why D’Andre Swift is an easy start in fantasy as Bears take on Cowboy in Week 3.

Saeedi Lamb To go Over 82.5 yards received (-115)

Lamb has placed the scars on the top of the 100-yard in both the games played this season, and the bear will be without number 1 corner Gulon johnson And slot corner Kiler Gordon Due to injuries. Lamb will have the benefits of matchup with both slot and Seema alignment. And if the bears roll with a more zone-thorough script, look for the lamb to find open grass as a catch-run target for quarterbacks Duck prescott, Bowen

George Pickens To score Ever touchdown (+130)

Let’s stay here with Chicago-Dalas matchup and bet on Pickens. Pickens won its first Touchdown of the season in the week 2 over veterans, and has already set the target of five end region in their first two matches. With its vertical stretch capacity, the picance can be loose on the shot-play throw, or cowboys can separate them into a low red area. Take bets versus a beat-up beer secondary. , Bowen

Tyler locket to record 50+ received yard (+900)

The start of the season has been so ugly for locket that AP Style decided that I still have to exclude their production numbers: four goals, two receptions, nine yards. But when his game time is down, from where it was in Seattle last year, he is still a decent amount on the field. Lockett has traveled to 60% dropback of Tennesse this season. And here the goal, achieving 50 yard, is not really asking He excess. I think it was a different situation a year ago, but locket hit 50 at a distance of yards five Last year Times, and now we are receiving +900 to do it on Sunday. This line is very pessimistic about the experienced receiver, according to my received yard model. This fair price makes +405 here. , Walder

Sedric tilman to record 90+ received yard (+750)

Tilman is playing a ton, running the route at 92% Cleveland Brown Dropback (even slightly more time than Jerry JudiHe is running a high-value route, also-deep crossrs and Digs that produce high yards per root run number. Given, the route to Tilman walks at an enlarged time, not inspiring (0.8), but looking at the time of playing and seeing that the brown must be playing almost from behind and is therefore throwing a fair amount, it’s great that is very good to pass. My model makes it +381. , Walder

D’andre swift To go Over 2.5 reception (-1125)

We are 3–1 on these bets, and I do not see any reason why we should not rolling it. The base is simple: When playing defense zone coverage, they allow the reception to run back about twice when they play man coverage. The principle here is that it is not completely cooked in the betting market, and so we are facing zone defense and are facing their rescue. Through two weeks, the defense that stands out in this regard is absolutely cowboy; They are playing zone coverage at a large number of rates (no team played more than 72% area during the previous season). Hence the reception of Swift is an easy option in week 3. , Walder

Travon henderson to record 20+ yards received (-135)

A steeler against Defense, which is giving average 25.5 yards to run the back, look at Henderson to see the target on screen and unders, while coordinator Josh McDanells released plans for stopping the backfield to attack linebackers in coverage. Henderson has produced at least 24 yards in both sports played this season, so I like to hit on Sunday. , Bowen

Tyler Waren To go Over 50.5 yards (-115)

The head coach of Indianapolis Shane Stechen has a dedicated scheme for Warren in the route tree. Warren has produced at least 75 yards in each of its first two pro games, with both targets at least seven. And Stechen is installing Warren as a multi -layered option for quarterbacks Daniel jones – With the room to walk after the catch. He can thunder in the open field. Take over in 3 games vs. Tennessee of the week. , Bowen

Joe Fleko To go 38.5 pass efforts (-110)

I am breaking a new model for this category, a relatively simple logistic region that I hope that we will let us find some near effort values. And a major factor that assumes that NFL Next is the pass rate of Next Jane Stats at the expectation – the rate at which teams pass after accounting for status factors like score, down and distance – both on crime And protect. And no team has less rival Pass rate on expectation compared to Green Bay (-18%), which means that packers are probably inspired by their personnel and/or alignment. And it is not just a small sample, either; Last year, under the same Defense Coordinator (Jeff Hafle), Green Bay stood third in the same category. , Walder

Trevor laurence To go Under 0.5 INTS (+115)

I am actually here -117, so it is a decent size discrepancy in a market where my model is usually very close to betting obstacles. A clear reason why we are doing +115: Lawrence has thrown three pics this season. However, the pics are flukey, and so we should really see Jacksonville jaguar Quarterback through a long lens. In the previous season, he recorded a 2.2% obstruction rate, which was slightly above the 1.9% league average, but hardly an external. Another factor that stands here is how-the-three Jaguars are, NFL is ranked 25th at a pass rate at the next gene data per expectation. This limits that the number of throw will be expected to create the laurence and in turn, reduces the possibility of a blockage. , Walder

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