Week 2 NFL best bets, betting analysis, picks and props

Price is value, no matter where – or how – you find it. And this is what we aim to do every week in this place – find the price.

Ben Solak and Seth Walder bring different approaches how they contact sports betting. Solak player bends to find his expertise in evaluation and the edges of X and O. Walder plus-applied value depends on the statistical model to take bets.

These weekly pics will not be limited to a certain stake type. From spread and moneyline to yoga or even defensive players Props, a good price can be found anywhere.

The results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-units bet for each listed bet. As usual, are from Auds ESPN condition,

With this, let’s dive into the week 2.

Note: This file will be updated with new bets through Saturday – which includes the defensive props of Seth Walder – as the auditions are available.

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Sports bets

Buffalo bill But New York Jets Total number Over 46.5 (-110)

Solak: The two most scoring teams of the week 1 meet in the week 2, and I like both of them match anti -crime defense.

Josh allenThe Brady and Bills scored the protection of Aaron Glenn in the previous season with 48 points, with Alan on an average. 46 EPA per dropback. In the week 1, the protection of jets under Glenn looked similar to it. Detroit Lions Defense did-he played the role of man at the third largest rate of week 1 and blitted at the seventh highest rate. Expect Allen to scramble too much, which we will later meet in another bet.

Can jets throw their way in the game if they are following the bills? There is a big question here. Last week was a run rate on compared to jets, as measured by the next gene data of 21.4%-which was the seventh highest number in the same game last season. They did not want to throw the ball much Justin fields There is a proper plan – but if they are in an early hole, they may have to do it.

The good news is that I think they can run it well against Buffalo’s light boxes and nickel personnel, such as they will not need to leave the run until they are actually coming out of the water. This may be worth taking the first half over instead of a full game, if you are really concerned about the game script – but I am very impressed by the crime of jets to trust them to contribute to the full game number.

Philadelphia eagles But Cenus city chief Total number Under 46.5 (-105)

Solak: Chief Secondary looked surprisingly susceptible against his season’s opener Los angeles chargersAnd I am looking for overs in the main games as a season and their receiver room returns to health – but not this week. Eagles remain one of the most heaviest teams on expectation – especially with Jalen hurts Scrabbleing at 24% of your dropback in week 1 – and thus encourages an ongoing watch. with Zevier worthy Potentially laid for this game, the heads have large-play threats and project deficiency to systematically move the ball. Juju Smith-Shuster And Travis cails,

Tenasi Titans +5.5 (-110) Vs. Los Angeles Ram

Solak: I was a believer in Titans in Presiden, and after throwing a great winning game against a hard Denver bronchos Squad, I am supporting him for his home opener against Ram. Both start guards for Los Angeles, Kevin dotson And Steve AvilaThe game is expected to remember. This is a big deal against the defensive tackle pair Jeffrey semens And T’Vondre sweatWhich is easily a top pair in the league. Ram gives a crime feast against dealing with the poor, but Tennessee is one of the best.

The Titans faced the security and running game against Denver’s defensive front and heavy blitz packages, and while Rama’s defensive line has the strength of his rescue, it is a cut under Denver. I like to stop cuby Cafar ward Has a cool game at home and for Calvin Ridley Many first to leave as down (three!) As he did in the week 1. Titans keep it closer – and I am also sprinkling a little on the moneyline.

Seattle Seahawks But Pittsburg steelers Total number 39.5 under (-105)

Solak: Steelers crime probably faded my strongest week 2. Quarterback Aron roders The week 1 led the league in the throw behind the line of scribe, yet the third highest explosive pass rate. This is not just durable. Jets Secondary had tons of busted coverage; This mike does not occur in McDonald Defense. For roders, it will also be very difficult to explain the pre-snap picture relative to the jets line up-and-play approach to explain the pre-snap picture of the movement-sword of Seattle for roders, and this is their only remaining superpower that has now reduced their dynamics.

Seattle’s aggressive approach was funny in week 1-a little play-action, a lot of empty sets-and I am a matter of some concern that they get out with a separate game plan in week 2. But this steeler is a talent benefit on the group of sehox in the defensive line that I think the Seattle struggles to move the ball how they play.

Aggressive player props

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Josh Alan to post 35+ Rushing Yard (-110)

Solak: Stylistic, it is the kind of defense against which Allen has broken a ton of pocket, and if he breaks a big, he can only reach this number on a few attempts. But Jets Secondary actually struggled to pass through 1 routes and adjust the speed; Left a lot to be desired in space to deal with them. Bill crime should be cruised.

Tyron Tracy JuniorTo go More than 2.5 reception (even)

Solak: We saw a big day Sakwon barkle Through the wind against Dallas Cowboys In the week 1, as he had chosen almost nothing but zone coverage against the passing crime of the eagles. This is not really one closed, because the new defensive coordinator Matt Abberflus has always been one of the highest field coverage defensive coaches, and accordingly, there is an increase in goals and reception when facing back running.

At first glance, it looks like Tracy (three reception in week 1) Cam skatebo (Two receptions). But Skatebo had those two catches on only three routes, while Treads ran 25 routes. If the veteran again a proper expectation on the spread of the mark-5.5-point-then Tracy should see a decent checkdown volume. I am taking With more than 3.5 reception -(+275),

Walder: We went to two for two in the week 1, so let’s roll it. The idea here is simple: since the beginning of last season, back running catch passes 10% of man coverage plays, but 15% zone coverage plays. So my principle is that it is not completely baked in the betting line, and so I target the overs against the zone coverage teams and undergone against the man coverage teams.

Last week in his first game as a cowboy defensive coordinator, Matt Abberflus ran zone coverage at about 86% dropback, leading all teams in week 1 (it was tied for the 10th highest zone coverage rate in a regular session game since the beginning of last season). The beneficiary in the week 2 should be Tracy (and perhaps cam skatebo, too).

Also worth considering:

Keson bout to post 100+ received yard (+850)

Walder: There are two ways this can be a great condition. First of all, what if the bout we saw in week 1 is the real deal? Hek, what if the bouts we saw in the last three matches of 2024 and week 1 – when he earned a joint 2.8 yards per route run! – What is the real deal? If yes, it is great to get +850 on 100-yard games. But then it is also: bout is an extreme vertical danger. No comprehensive receiver with at least 20 routes in the week 1 did not run deep feeds compared to the high rate of Go root and bout (40%). This means that it is more likely than giving the correct-tail results. And this is a big reason that my model – which gives this prop price to +537 – prefers it on this alternative line.

Cooper Kupp to post 40+ received yard (+120)

Walder: I am going back to the well again with the well after losing on a high level line of my last week. Kupp’s beginning as a sehoc was disappointing, there is no doubt. Three targets, two receptions, 15 yards. But there was an encouraging number: he was on the field on 88% dropback of the team. For me, this is why it is worth putting a line on it.

From the model’s point of view: This is a player with an average props line 66.8 last year. Even in a new crime with a separate quarterback and a year old, he must have a plus-money to get 40 receiving yards. This makes Kupp -165 to hit this number.

While I do not think the model considers a role change quite completely, I am ready to rely on it.

Josh allen 0.5 under interception (-130)

Walder: The ideal combination of interception avoidance is a quarterback that does not throw several pics whose team is a heavy favorite. And see what we have here! Since the onset of the previous season, Allen has a 0.9% obstruction rate (including playoffs), which is basically a league average, and the bill area is a favorite in 6.5-point jets. If they exit a lead, the bill should not pass too often, and when Alan passes, he should be able to limit his risks in view of the opponent. My model prices are under -154 prices.

Daniel jones Throw 1+ Interception (+120)

Solak: Daniel Jones was impressive at the beginning of its week 1 Colts, but this number should not be plus money. For one, the colts were actually quite dropback-thus in the week 1 Miami dolphin When you adjust to the script. In the first half, they had a run rate at the expectation of only +2.8% above the league average. He called a dropback at 58.1% of his opportunities. In an approximate neutral script against bronchos, we can see that the total dropback rate has increased.

Then we have a difference in defense caliber. The colts played against the lower-three pass defense in the week 1 are not exaggerated to say that now we have to face a top-three pass defense in Week 2. Given that Jones is still new to the crime and receiver, the battle of a training camp with Anthony Richardson has spent half of the camp, and has given his poach to his poach for a highly irregular game, I am like an interception number here.