It may be possible to make difficult lineup decisions every week The most challenging part of fantasy Football Process. When you’re stuck between two similar players and don’t know who to start with, start with the player with the better matchup.
ah, but of course How Does anyone determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable to opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense has performed relative to the difficulty of the schedule. This provides an unbiased approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adjusted FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, shows how much above or below the players’ weekly PPR fantasy point average the defense put opponents in that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; A negative number means it is unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover the team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: matchups are One Ingredient in my ranking formula. Not every favorable matchup should be taken advantage of, nor should unfavorable matchups be avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN Fantasy staff’s — most complete source on who to start and sit with each week, consult Our weekly ranking,
quarterback
Matchup Highlights: drake may, new England Patriots (But New York Jets, Has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games Matthew Stafford For the longest active streak among quarterbacks. Mays is now facing a Jets defense that has not recorded a single interception all season – the only team that can make that claim – and has the fourth-fewest sacks overall (7) and fifth-fewest quarterback contacts (34). It only helps that his Patriots also have their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC (and the bye week that comes with it).
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To avoid matchups: Justin Herbert, los angeles chargers (vs houston texanssat. 4:30 PM ET). He’s having his best fantasy performance of the season (30.20 points), but he also benefited from his best stat performance of the season And Matchups of the last five games at the Dallas Cowboys. Comparatively, the Texans have the No. 1 schedule-adjusted defense against quarterbacks for the season (minus-4.8 adjusted FPA) and No. 4 over the past five weeks. Over the past seven weeks alone, they have held three of the top seven quarterbacks to under 10 fantasy points on the season: No. 4 trevor lawrence (9.82 points in week 10), No. 1 josh allen (8.12, week 12) and number 7 patrick mahomes (6.30, Week 14).
run behind
Matchup Highlights: chase brown, cincinnati bengals (vs Arizona Cardinals, Joe Burrow’s healthy return has arguably paid the biggest dividends for his return, as Brown’s 85.7 fantasy points over the past four weeks are the third-most at the position (bijan robinson 99.0, James Cook III 87.3). Considering this game started the week with the highest over/under (53.5) and the Bengals are favored by a touchdown, the Browns are likely to stand out once again. The Cardinals have surrendered 33.9 fantasy points per game over the past six weeks (most in the league), with eight individuals scoring in double figures.
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To avoid matchups: derrick henry, Baltimore Ravens (But green Bay Packerssat. 8 pm ET) His goal-line role — he has a league-leading 15 carries and a second-best four touchdowns in goal-to-go situations over the last six weeks — should ensure his spot in almost every fantasy lineup, but his matchups raise questions about how much he can contribute in the yardage department. Only one running back has scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Packers all season (Rico Dowdle28.1 in Week 9), and over the last five weeks, the Packers have averaged the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (18.1).
wide receiver
Matchup Highlights: drake london, atlanta falcons (vs Los Angeles Rams“Monday Night Football”) His return from a knee injury didn’t result in a lot of fantasy production, but he played 70% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps and ran 30 routes, which indicates his ability to handle at least a full-time (if not close to it) role. With the opportunity for another week to recover, London should take advantage of this matchup against a stumbling Rams secondary. Four wide receivers scored 23 or more fantasy points against the Rams over the last three weeks alone, and the Rams’ cornerback trio kobe durant, Emmanuel Forbes Jr.And josh wallace The closest defender in those games has scored 29.8 points per game.
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To avoid matchups: jameson williamsLion (in Vikings). That’s a risk/reward game, and accounting for the matchup, consider the downside involved when deciding between closely ranked wide receivers. Williams has generated 26% of his fantasy production on deep throws (those thrown at least 20 yards from the line of scrimmage), while allowing 19.3 fantasy points to opposing Vikings wide receivers. Total On those plays over the last seven weeks. During that time, they had several notable wide receivers – Jackson Smith-Njigba (4.3 fantasy points in Week 13), Terry McLaurin (7.1, week 14), george pickens (6.3, Week 15) and Wan’Dale Robinson (5.2, Week 16) – Under 10 fantasy points All Types of throws.
tight end
Matchup Highlights: Harold Fannin Jr., cleveland browns (vs pittsburgh steelers, He has flourished for the first time since David Njoku suffered a knee injury during Week 6, causing Njoku to miss three games (Weeks 7, 15 and 16) and expanding the rookie’s role on offense. Over the past 11 weeks, Fannin ranks second among tight ends in target share (26.0%) and fifth in fantasy points (130.7), and he is on pace to have one of the best point totals at the position by a rookie. The Steelers matchup ranks him in the top five, considering they’ve seen three tight ends average over 12 fantasy points over the last four weeks, and they’ve given up 13.8 points to the Lions. Anthony Firkser,Shane Zylstra Last week’s combination.
To avoid matchups: dallas goedert, philadelphia eagles (But buffalo bill, Fannin shut down this matchup last week, but he also had to throw a rushing touchdown to put up 19.5 fantasy points. Putting it aside, mike gesicki He is the only other tight end to score 13 or more points against the Bills this season. Goedert has had a good fantasy season, but he has also been extremely fortunate in the touchdown department, resulting in his scoring 42 more fantasy points than expected In 2025. This is a matchup where his point total is likely to be low.
