It may be possible to make difficult lineup decisions each week The most challenging part of fantasy Football Process. When you’re stuck between two similar players and don’t know who to start with, start with the player with the better matchup.
ah, but of course How Does anyone determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable to opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Rather than relying on season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense has performed relative to schedule difficulty. This provides an unbiased approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adjusted FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, shows how much above or below the players’ weekly PPR fantasy point average the defense put opponents in that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; A negative number means it is unfavorable. Also remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover the team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: matchups are One Ingredient in my ranking formula. Not every favorable matchup should be taken advantage of, nor should unfavorable matchups be avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN Fantasy staff’s — most complete source on who to start and sit with each week, consult Our weekly rankings,
quarterback
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Field Yates: Bo Nix is a top 10 QB option in Week 13
Field Yates explains why Bo Nix is a top-10 quarterback in Week 13 against the Commanders.
Matchup Highlights: bo nix, denver broncos (But Washington Commanders, He enjoys the dual advantage of being fresh from his bye week as well as facing one of the most favorable matches of the situation. This season, seven quarterbacks coming off a bye have faced a top-8 matchup. Those quarterbacks averaged 20.0 fantasy points, or 4.6 more than their seasonal average up to that point. Nicks is a near-20-point quarterback — he’s averaging 18.0 fantasy points — and he’s going against a defense that has allowed quarterbacks the most points per pass attempt for the season (0.60).
Other likes: trevor lawrence, jacksonville jaguars (But tennessee titans, Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (But tampa bay buccaneers, jordan love, green Bay Packers (But detroit lionsThursday).
To avoid matchups: Jared GoffLions (vs. Packers, Thursday). In a rematch of their Week 1 meeting, in which he scored only 10.90 fantasy points, Goff faced one of the league’s best defenses in a short week. The opposing Packers have surrendered only one game of more than 20 points to a quarterback all season (dak prescott30.96 in Week 4), and in the last four weeks, they limited jalen hurts Made further up to issue 12.02 (week 10) bryce young And JJ McCarthy Looks awesome (3.46 points Joint from them in weeks 9 and 12).
Sunday’s matchups to avoid: Daniel Jones, indianapolis colts (vs houston texansThe Texans are the only team that has not allowed a quarterback to reach 20 fantasy points against them this season.
run behind
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Liz Loza: Henderson maintains control of Pats’ backfield with Stevenson’s return
Liz Loza breaks down Trevion Henderson and Raimondre Stevenson’s fantasy performance vs. the Bengals.
Matchup Highlights: traveyon henderson, new England Patriots (vs New York Giants, He didn’t have a big game last week (11.1 fantasy points). Ramondre StevensonReturn to action, but Henderson’s usage numbers at least offered encouragement for his fantasy potential for the rest of the season. The rookie started, played 64% of the offensive snaps and totaled 21 touches in a favorable matchup, three times more than Stevenson. At those levels, Henderson should be able to take advantage of similarly excellent matchups against a Giants team that has given up an average of 38.6 fantasy points to its opponents’ top two running backs over the past five weeks.
Other likes: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs atlanta falcons, RJ HarveyBroncos (in Commanders).
To avoid matchups: javonte williams, dallas cowboys (vs kansas city chiefsThursday). He has cooled off after a hot start, averaging just 12.5 fantasy points over the last seven weeks after 20.7 over the first five. Additionally, Williams has totaled 47 fewer yards from scrimmage in his last six games (478) than his first five games (525), but that’s more about the matchup than his own performance. The Chiefs have faced a stellar pair of running backs James Cook III (Week 9) and jonathan taylor (Week 12) over the past four weeks, and limited them to a combined 22.1 fantasy points.
Sunday’s matchups to avoid: Rico Dowdle, carolina panthers (vs Los Angeles RamsThe Rams have only seen six running backs score double-digit fantasy points against them this season, which is tied for the fewest in the league.
wide receiver
Matchup Highlights: Michael WilsonCardinals (at Buccaneers). Marvin Harrison Jr.The condition (appendectomy) has an impact on Wilson’s fantasy utility, but even if Harrison can play, he is unlikely to be ready to move straight back into his previous role (78% of snaps, 33 route runs per game). Additionally, Wilson has done a great job filling in for Harrison over the past two weeks and has finished third in fantasy points (55.3) and sixth in target share (32.4%) among wide receivers. This matchup provides an opportunity for both players to succeed, as the Buccaneers have surrendered five of 15-plus fantasy points over the last three weeks. zion mccallum Has been one of the worst performing cornerbacks this season (26.2 targets EPA, second-worst at the position according to Next Gen Stats), while injuries have been and may continue to be a problem jamel dean and/or benjamin morrison Was pushed aside.
Other likes: Jakobi MeyersJaguar (in Titans); jerry judy, cleveland browns (vs san francisco 49ers, Khalil Shakir, buffalo bill (But pittsburgh steelers,
To avoid matchups: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (But philadelphia eaglesFriday). He hasn’t been nearly the same receiver since the team’s Week 5 bye. Odunze is averaging just 9.1 fantasy points with a 44% catch rate, which lags behind both teammates. dj moore (11.1, 56%) and colston loveland (10.9, 81%) during that period. Odunze has also had to endure his fair share of friendly bouts in that period, but this is certainly not one. The Eagles have held wide receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points per target (1.47) this season and they’ve been especially tough against No. 1 receivers the past two weeks. Amon-Ra Saint Brown (Week 11) and cd lamb (Week 12) Combined 17.7 points on 23 goals.
tight end
Matchup Highlights: mark andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs cincinnati bengalsThursday night). Keep picking the Bengals for tough matchups, as they are ranked No. 1 in that regard so far. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points per game (22.8), adjusted FPA (+9.4) and points per goal (2.25), along with league-leading numbers in those same categories over the past five weeks (23.7, +10.3, 2.37). Opposing tight ends have scored at least 10.7 points in each of their last seven games against the Bengals.
Sunday matchups to choose from: chig okonkwoTitans (vs. Jaguars). Opponents’ top tight ends have averaged 17.3 fantasy points in their last eight games against the Jaguars.
To avoid matchups: Oronde Gadsden II, los angeles chargers (vs las vegas raiders, The Raiders defense has faced 5.6 tight end targets per game (fifth fewest), but they have also allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.67). The Gadsden matchup looks like a touchdown-dependent game, as the Chargers are one of the biggest favorites (-9.5) of the week in a game with the lowest over/under (41.5) of the week.
