With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the playoff picture is coming into focus. At this point, the top six teams in the rankings seem to be a lock. The ACC and Group of 5 will also produce champions, whether the Big Ten likes it or not. Winner of the Week 13 Showdown between USC And oregon Should be on track for a bid, and it’s hard to imagine at this point Notre Dame has been dropped, ranking 9th, which is very low Syracuse And stanford Left on schedule.
Add it all up, and it’s 10 of the 12 playoff spots already written — well, if not in ink, at least in a much darker pencil.
This leaves teams still hiding on the periphery – alabama, oklahoma, utah, Vanderbilt, BYU And miamiChief among them – each week expect the committee to dig deep, focus on their strengths, overcome the occasional hurdles, and value their ever-evolving resume.
And every week, the committee just Last week’s ranking update With a few small changes and back to the airport in time to grab a Cinnabon before my flight.
So, yes, there is some trepidation, some frustration and a little bit of anger as we approach the finish line of the 2025 season.
Can you believe Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame have a combined five wins against other ranked teams?
This is true.
Alabama has defeated No. 4 Georgianumber 14 Vanderbiltnumber 20 Tennessee and number 22 missouri,
Notre Dame has defeated… well, only No. 15 USC.
And there’s a big win against Oregon… Sorry, it just says “Error 404: Page not found”.
And yet, the Tide heads into this week ranked No. 10, barely on the edge of the playoff, behind both the Ducks and Irish.
Why? Because Alabama had the audacity to lose a game by double digits the previous week – a game in which it missed a field goal attempt on a controversially tipped ball, Oklahoma’s yardage almost doubled, and, based on net success rate, was clearly the unluckiest team in the country.
📊🏈 Did we really lose that badly?
Net Success Rate at Week 12by request:
Net success rate in the first half: South Carolina +.168
Second half net success rate: Texas A&M +.391 pic.twitter.com/x1JWyTNlpS– Parker Fleming (@statsowar) 17 November 2025
Now, way back when we first introduced the idea of the selection committee in 2014, one of the big differences from more traditional rankings like the AP Poll was that this new group would take a fresh look at each week. Unlike those lazy AP voters or any intern who spent less time and had to submit coaches’ ballots for the Coaches Poll, the committee will not simply take last week’s rankings and adjust based on who won or lost their most recent games. The underlying data changed every week, so the committee was also forced to reevaluate. When teams played well they lost games and when they played poorly they won games. What once seemed like a big win (Penn State?) now looks less impressive, and what once seemed like a bad loss (SMU?) is a forgivable gap in the resume. The committee, in its infinite wisdom, will account for them all by viewing each set of rankings as an entirely new endeavor.
Twelve years later, it seems this committee has decided it’s too much effort and seems to have adopted the old AP election process.
Alabama lost. This should be punished, and falling six places in the rankings is the equivalent of explaining to an ATL pilot that it will only take 20 minutes or so for the gate to open. Everyone knows that’s not true, but the hope is that this number seems reasonable enough that no one will be too upset.
Well, this kind of treatment might be fine for people like Miami or Virginia, but we’re talking about Alabama. Keep some respect for the Tide’s name. Their five wins vs. SP+ are more than anyone except top-40 opponent Texas A&M. Their four wins against ranked foes are more than Ole Miss, Oregon and Notre Dame combined. They have defeated the country’s No. 4 team head-to-head – arguably the best win for any team this season.
And yet, here we are, treating Alabama as if it’s been playing an ACC schedule this whole time. (Never mind that the Tide lost to an ACC team. The committee gave Week 1 the “Eternal Sunshine” treatment. Sorry, Miami.)
The whole issue of the committee – this is because we’re not using computers or the AP Poll or allowing that manatee at Sea World that always lets the winner of the Holiday Bowl decide the playoff teams – so there are some nuances to the process.
Alabama at No. 10 shows no context is being applied. Take last week’s rankings. Cut and paste and remove any that are missing six spaces. Now no one on the committee is worried about missing their Tuesday night dinner reservation.
two weeks ago, memphis The group of 5 teams was the committee’s favourite. Tigers lost immediately tulane (and again East Carolina Last week.)
got approval last week south floridaThe Bulls lost immediately after this navy,
This week, the committee had a chance to move beyond betraying American and expand its horizons. It did not happen.
The matter of Libra is very simple. Green Wave got the win over Power 4. sure, it’s against rulera team that also lost YukonBut it’s still a win for the Power 4. Tulane also defeated Memphis and East Carolina. This is rare air, shared only with such people uab And nc stateThis is a team with a real resume,
But the thing is that James Madison did not choose its schedule. It faces teams in its own league, and in 2025, the Sun Belt isn’t that good.
So what? While Tulane has had to contend with the likes of Army And south alabamaJMU has defeated its seven conference opponents by an average of 24 points. JMU’s only nine wins Georgia State Got less than 10 marks. Over the past month, the Dukes have won all four of their games by a combined score of 208–80. No, they haven’t played great competition, but they have dominated the teams they have faced. The quality of wins is a metric the team controls. There is no strength of schedule.
3. Opening Dates
two weeks ago, georgia tech Presumably, the week was taken off, because the Ramblin’ Wreck was stuck in traffic on I-75, and somehow, despite being the rare ACC team that didn’t embarrass itself in Week 11, the Yellow Jackets were left behind miami,
Last week, it was Vanderbilt After renting out FirstBank Stadium for a bachelorette party, it probably had a week off to clean the glitter and hot sauce off the field. What happened? The Commodores were also bumped up in the rankings by Miami.
So, to recap: Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame didn’t matter to the committee, but the Canes were compared to an empty void, and the committee is slightly in Miami’s favor.
Let’s create a quick blind resume here.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 20, next vs. No. 30. SP+ Nos. 12 and 13 lost by a combined 29 points. Strength of No. 14 Records.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 37, next vs. No. 51. SP+ lost to Nos. 3 and 17 by a combined 27 points. The strength of the number 18 record.
who’s better?
Both have understandable losses. No one has specific wins, but clearly Team A has beaten better teams. Neither of them really look like playoff material at the moment, but Team A, for what it’s worth, still has a big opportunity on the horizon.
Well, you probably guessed it, Team A is Michigan. Team B is utahRanked six places higher.
If anything, Utah’s place in the rankings is confusing – ahead of Miami, USC and Vanderbilt, all of whom have clearly better wins. But the frustration for the Wolverines is that they have a chance to pull off the Ohio State Again this year, and even if they do, the end result will probably look a lot like 2024. The Buckeyes will still reach the playoff, and Michigan – despite being far better than a year ago – doesn’t have much of a shot.
If Michigan were hovering around the No. 12 or 13 spot, there is a path — with a win over Ohio State — to a playoff berth. At the age of 18? Not likely, even if they beat the Buckeyes by 40. Instead, they will have nothing left but a trip to the Music City Bowl and a long offseason to drink the tears of Ohio State fans everywhere. This is hardly fair.
5. Committee
We’ll never know what was discussed in the committee room, but this week, we imagine, as time went on, someone spoke up and said, “Okay, we have to include VirginiaSo keep them at 19, and then let’s draw names out of a hat.”
Seriously, look at the bottom of these rankings. Who is good? Tennessee? The Vols’ best win was a loss to Georgia. IllinoisIndiana beat Illinois so badly that descendants of the 1916 Cumberland team sent condolence cards. houston was placed by West Virginia Less than three weeks ago. Missouri is like “Criminal Minds”. The Tigers move up in the rankings, and your first thought is… “It’s still on? It’s not.” beau pribula Retired like six years ago?”
So, after spending so much time chiding the committee for its infinite lack of creativity and nuance, it’s only fair that we include them in the anger index. Finding 25 teams worth ranking is no easy task. But do you know what they call the person who graduated last in medical school? doctor.
Also angry this week: East Carolina Pirates (7-3, unreserved), North Texas Mean Green (9-1, unreserved), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2, No. 9 and I really wish everyone would stop mentioning that Miami game), georgia tech yellow jackets (9-1, No. 16 behind seven two-loss teams), Lane Kiffin Realtors. Make up your mind already, Lane!
