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Brett Okamoto
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Brett Okamoto
espn staff writer
- Brett Okamoto has reported on mixed martial arts and boxing for ESPN since 2010. He has covered all the biggest events in combat sports during that time, including in-depth interviews and features with names like Dana White, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Conor McGregor, Nate Diaz, Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao and Georges St-Pierre. He was also the producer of the 30 for 30 film “Chuck & Tito”, which looked at the careers and rivalry of Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz. He lives in Las Vegas, and is an avid, below-average golfer in his spare time.
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ian parker
ESPN’s No. 3 pound for pound fighter, merab dvalishvili (21-4), will defend his bantamweight title for the fourth time this year at UFC 323 in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV; prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+). Nine-year UFC veteran from Georgia faces former champion petr yan (19-5) in a rematch of their 2023 fight which Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision. If Dvalishvili gets his hand raised for the 15th consecutive time on Saturday, he will become the first UFC fighter to win four title fights in a calendar year.
Another longtime title holder and top-10 pound-for-pound competitor, alexandre pantoja (30-5), puts his men’s flyweight belt on the line in the co-main event against the 24-year-old upstart joshua van (15-2). Like Dvalishvili, Van is making his fourth appearance this year. If Van can figure out how to slow down Pantoja – something that the five challengers before him have not done during the Brazilian’s two-and-a-half-year reign – he would become the second-youngest UFC champion ever and the first born since 2000.
Overall, the final UFC pay-per-view card of the year plays host to Seven fighters ranked by ESPN and three ranked-versus-ranked matchups.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their title fight predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.
Men’s Bantamweight Title Fight
How do you go against Merab now? I guess he rinses and repeats what he’s been doing to everyone else. His ability to keep fighters confused and guessing will win him this fight. The craft will keep guessing all night long. It wouldn’t seem as easy as it was in the first fight, but Dvalishvili would win four of the five rounds. –Deen Thomas
Merab is hot, and I think he beats Yan again. That will tire the vehicle. I think about the fight with Yan song yadong In March 2024, and the spacecraft was looking very tired at that. Song fights at a fast pace, but Dvalishvili’s pace is even faster. Dvalishvili makes his living by beating people who are better than him in many ways, and he does so by exhausting them. He will do it here. –Anthony Smith
betting analysis
Odds are accurate as of December 4th. For the latest odds, visit DraftKings.
Parker: Dvalishvili wins by decision (-250). Dvalishvili will once again defend his title in an attempt to become the reigning champion in UFC history. In their first fight, Davlishvili defeated Yan by doing what he usually does – shoot a lot of takedowns and control the pace. But since that fight, Dvalishvili has evolved his game. He has become a more accomplished mixed martial artist and is constantly improving his striking. As good as Yan is, I don’t think Dvalishvili will lose his belt anytime soon, especially in a five-round fight that makes his cardio a weapon in itself. Yan never runs out, so keep that in mind when betting on this fight.
men’s flyweight title fight
I like Joshua Wan a lot. He’s one of my favorites right now, but he’s not going to win this fight. Pantoja is too consistent – and too hungry – for a one-dimensional fighter like Van to beat him. Pantoja is going to get a takedown soon and Van is starting to worry. Once this happens, Pantoja will begin beating him on the legs and then take him down and strangle him. –Deen Thomas
Pantoja says the smart money is on his experience and familiarity with five-round title fights. I think Van is very, very cool, but I suspect it will look a lot like the last fight against Pantoja Kai Cara-FranceAnother dangerous striker. Pantoja wears him out so much that you almost feel bad for Kai by the end. And Pantoja didn’t even look like he was trying that hard. –Anthony Smith
betting analysis
0:57
Alexandre Pantoja dominates ground game to defeat Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja defeated Kai Cara-France in the third round to retain his UFC flyweight title.
Parker: Pantoja wins by submission (+150). In what could be the fight of the night, Pantoja will be looking to successfully defend his title against a rising fan favorite. Van is a good striker with solid power and durability who looked incredible in his last fight Brandon RoyvalHowever, Pantoja is a completely different fighter and I don’t think Van will get a win against him, Look for Pantoja to use his striking and forward pressure to eventually wear down Van, Once on the canvas, it’s only a matter of time before the submission ace gets another finish,
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: bruno ferreira versus Marvin Vettori
Ferreira would win (-102). It is little surprise that Vettori is a slight favorite here as he is on the decline of his career and he is facing a complete and powerful striker. Ferreira has the edge over Vettori in wrestling and jiu-jitsu and on the feet and his strength could be the difference maker. Vettori’s only way to win is by decision, but considering the losses he has taken in his last few fights, take the underdog with the skill to match him with reverses on the feet and on the ground.
Men’s flyweight: Brandon Moreno versus Tatsuro Taira
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Brandon Moreno claims unanimous decision win over Steve Erceg
Brandon Moreno landed a big combo on Steve Erceg in the fifth round and won via unanimous decision.
Moreno to win (+110). This is another interesting and fun fight. As long as Taira is able to take Moreno down and hold him there for all three rounds, Moreno is able to pick up the win. On the feet, Moreno is the better striker and has the cardio to maintain volume over three rounds. Moreno is a smart fighter and knows the danger of letting Taira back off early, so I have to assume he’s done the work to prepare. If you want to take your bets a step further, the decision will also give Moreno big chances.
